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Kwanini mtizamo wa nchi yetu katika energy unaenda kinyume na malengo ya dunia ya kupunguza co2 emis

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Ame, Mar 30, 2011.

  1. A

    Ame JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Mar 30, 2011
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    Citation Utangulizi

    Hapa nataka kutoa summary ya mambo ya kuzingatiwa katika energy policy ya nchi, kama haya yamo kwenye policy yetu ya energy (If we have anyway) je kamati ya Bunge katika kuisimamia serikali inawa bana kuhusu haya na je mapendekezo wanayozingatia yanafuata hii thinking katika energy development nchini kwetu?


    Table:1 Sectoral Factors Influencing Role of Government in Technology Innovation
    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]SECTORAL CHARACTERISTIC [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Power Sector Technologies [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]


    National Interest


    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Energy Security [/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Environmental Externalities [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]air pollution, climate change [/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Market characteristics [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]electricity is commodity good [/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Complementary and Enabling Infrastructure – Institutional [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]rules for access to power network; knowledge about resource availability; environmental regulation [/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]Complementary and Enabling Infrastructure –Physical [/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

    [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
    [FONT=&quot]power network [/FONT]

    Source: Norberg-Bohm, [FONT=&quot]The Role of Government in Technology Innovation (With minor modification)[/FONT]




    Table 2: Energy production possibilities and unit cost per each technology[FONT=&quot]
    [/FONT]
    Citation Technology
    Characteristics
    Investment cost (US$/kW)
    Production cost (US$/MWh)
    Large hydro
    10 to 18 000 MW
    1 000 – 5 500
    30 – 120
    Small hydro
    1 to 10 MW
    2 500 – 7 000
    60 – 140
    Onshore wind
    1 to 3 MW
    1 200 – 1 700
    70 -140
    Offshore wind
    1.5 to 5 MW
    2 200 – 3 000
    80 – 120
    Biomass co-firing
    5 to > 100 MW
    120 to 1 200 + power station costs
    20 - 50
    Biomass combustion
    10 to 100 MW
    2 000 – 3 000
    60 - 190
    Solar PV
    10 MW + rooftop 1-5 kWp
    5 000 – 6 500
    200 - 800
    Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
    Up to 300 MW
    4 000 – 9 000
    130 - 230
    Enhanced geothermal
    5 to 50 MW
    5 000 – 15 000
    150 - 300
    Tidal and marine currents
    Demonstration
    7 000 – 10 000
    150 - 200


    Source:Energy Transition Perspective: Building blocks and Institutional constraints (www.itineralinstitute.org)

    Energy system innovations; technology-push & demand-pull measures
    Citation [FONT=&quot]•[FONT=&quot] [/FONT][/FONT] Technology-push; new technologies need to be created to be pushed into the market –For this to be realised then the important factors are such as

    • [FONT=&quot] [/FONT] Research & Development
    • [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]policies,
    • [FONT=&quot][/FONT]demonstration projects, etc
    [FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][/FONT][/FONT]Demand-pull: economic instruments can be use to create demand for new technologies

      • carbon taxes,
      • production subsidies,…etc

    Sijui kama kamati ya bunge na wizara husika inazingatia haya kuleta permanent energy solution. Sasa hapa sielewi hiyo Dowans na miradi inayofanana na hiyo ilikuwaje ikawa ndiyo mtizamo wa kutatua matatizo yetu ya energy huku hizi zikitumia oil ambayo haipo hapa kwetu na inapanda kila siku katika global market huku ikilaumiwa kuchafua mazingira kwa hali ya juu.

    Kama mimi ningekuwa mshauri wa wizara basi decision ingetegemea Capacity Factor (CF) (CF= Total Production/Theoratical Maximum Production)ya particular technology kulingana na available resources yaani tulizonazo. So far tuna Biomass (Kuni) Hydropower, coal na solar. Nitaeleza faida ya one after the other na sababu za kuichagua ama kuacha.
    Biomas- Hii ni most preferred kwasababu kwenye climate issues ni co2 neutral na maana uki burn kuni basi co2 released inakuwa taken na growing trees ambazo zitakuwa zinafuata utaalamu wa tree management katika sustainable use. Hii pia katika nchi kama yetu italeta economy of scale kwani wananchi badala ya kulima mahindi tu na kahawa na other crops basi watalima miti kufuata maelekezo ya wataalam ili kuwe na rotation nzuri. Climate yetu ni favourable kwenye fast growing species. Sasa Sweeden hi indo source yao ya energy na wamepanga after not less than 10 years watakuwa energy independent country.
    Hydro power: Stglers Gorge ni moja ya available resources. Hii pamoja environmentalist wanaijia juu lakini bado nchi kama Norway ni 100% dependent on this japo winters zina constrain hii technology kwao. Sisi comperatively tuna advantage kwani tukiweza kutunza vyanzo vyetu basi tume solve hii problem. China wana Hydro powers kubwa ambazo zina uwezo wa kuzalisha umeme wakutumia nchi yetu na mapaka tuka export kwa majirani zetu-Urafiki wetu ungeweza kuwashawishi wakatusaidia.
    Solar japo CF yake haizidi 33% kwenye nchi zenye jua masaa kumi na mbili bado rural areas zingesaidia kwenye lighting ya nyumba zao. etc etc

    Hofu yangu nikuwa pengine hatuna independent energy policy ndiyo maana tuko tunapiga mark time kila mwaka hata baada ya miaka 50. Lakini kinachonishangaza ni vipi watu walifikiria kina Dowans na IPTL huku zikienda contrary na mtizamo wa dunia kwamaana ya Kyoto protocol? Je hakuna watu walioshiriki kwenye hiyo global resolutions? Ndiyo hapo napo washangaa vijana wasomi kama hao wanao ongoza hizo kamati za Bunge kushindwa kufikiria into these lines na kung’ang’ania mambo ya umeme wa fossils. Nawasilisha!
     
  2. d

    dotto JF-Expert Member

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    Tuhesabu magunia ya mkaa yanayoingia katika miji ya mikoa na wilaya ni hatari tupu. Gharama za umeme alizotetea Kikwete kuwa ni suala la kibiashara ni kilio kwa taifa.
     
  3. A

    Ame JF-Expert Member

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    Nikwamba hapo tables zimeparaganyika lakini ungeona unit cost ya production ilivyokubwa kwenye hizo alternative zao alafu huku ukweli ukidhihirisha more than 90% wanatumia biomas energy kwenye domestic use na lighting bado hatuna production na supply regulatory bodies wala policy inayoelezea ku capture hii potential kwenye electricity production kwa kujenga boiler itakayo weza zalisha hiyo energy. Tuna ng'ng'ana na mitambo ya dowans, IPTL and the like. Hii ni kwa faida ya nani? Je kuna political will kweli katika ku solve hii energy problem ama ni kuwa hawana uelewa wa mambo? I am confused which is which. labda tuseme wanasiasa ndiyo kikwazo what about our university human resources katika ku solve hii issue?Mbona swala la katiba wameweza kufanya dialogy za kitaifa what about energy issues? Hapo ndipo napo ona pengine tumewabebesha wanasiasa mizigo mizito sana na kusukumia kila tatizo.
     
  4. V

    Vumbi Senior Member

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    Mar 30, 2011
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    Maelezo yako kuhusu masuala ya nishata na uchafuzi wa mazingira yanahitaji uchambuzi wa kina. Kama hufahamu hali halisi ya nchi husika unaweza kufikiri inatunza mazingira kumbe inaweza kuwa mchafunzi mkubwa wa mazingira duniani. Hii topiki ni pana sana ila nitachangia kidogo.
    Mfano:
    Unasema Norway wanatumia hydro-power 100%, lakini hujasema kuwa Norway ni miongoni mwa mataifa 10 yanayo export mafuta na gesi kwa wingi dunia, huu ni uchafuzi mkubwa wa mazingina na utajiri wake unatokana na kuuza hii bidhaa ambayo unasema inaharibu mazingira. Norway haiwezi kusema haichafui mazingi kigezo kikiwa kwa vile yenyewe hayatumii hayo mafuta. Norway wamebahatika kuwa na geografia inawafanya waweze kuzalisha umeme kutokana na maji lakini mazingira haya mataifa mengine hayana.

    Ufafanuzi:
    Hydrao-power inachangia wastani wa 5% ya nishati dunia wakati mafuta, gesi na makaa ya mawe ni zaidi ya 80% na asilimia nyingine haifiki 10% inachangiwa na nyuklia na re-newable energy.

    a) Hydro-power: Mataifa mengi duniani hayana vyazo vya maji, japo uzalishaji wake ni wa garama nafuu. Dunia kuna tatizo kubwa la maji safi kwa ajili ya matumizi ya binadamu na wanyama, pia kuna tatizo la ukame tunategemea uzalishaji wa umeme kwa njia hii utashuka kila mwaka.
    Mafuta na Gesi: Ni kweli hii bidhaa inachangia uchafuzi wa mazingira (hasa global warming) kwa kiasi fulani, lakini ndio yenye garama nafanuu baada ya hydo-power. Hii bidhaa ni rahisi kuisafirisha kutoka nchi/bara moja kwenda jingine, ni rahisi kuitumia na inakiasi kikubwa cha nishati ukilinganisha na makaa ya mawe na biomass. Pia mataifa mengi duniani yanategeme kuuza hii bidhaa kuendesha maisha ya watu wao, mfano: Uarabuni, North africa, Norway, Rusia etc.

    Makaa ya mawe: Yapo kwa kiasi kikibwa dunia kuliko mafuta na gesi. Uzalisha wa umeme kwa makaa ya mawe ni garama kuliko mafuta na gesi pia uchafuzi wa mazingira ni mkubwa zaidi kutokana na kuwa na kiasi kikubwa cha sulfur. Sehemu kubwa ya umeme duniani unazalishwa na makaa ya mawe kutokana na mataifa mengi kuwa nayo . Tunategemea hii kuwa njia kuu ya kuzalisha umeme kutokana na kupungua kiasi cha mafuta na gesi duniani, may be baada ya miaka 50 mpaka 100 ijayo.

    Biomass : Hii ipo kwenye kundi la re-newable energy, tunasema ni neutral Carbon dioxide. Inahitajika kwa kiasi kikubwa sana kuzalisha nishati inayoweza kukidhi mahitaji. Kimsingi gharama ya umeme unaozalishwa na biomass ni kubwa sana. Watu wanajidanganya ni rahisi kwa sababu wana vuna misitu bure ambayo huwakuipanda bali ni misitu ya asili. Ukiweka garama za kupanda misitu, kuitunza kwa zaidi ya miaka 15, kuvuna, kusafirisha na kiasi kikubwa kinacho hitajika kuzalisha umeme, garama ya umeme itakuwa kubwa sana. Pia kutakuwepo na tatizo la uzalishaji wa chakula na bei ya chakula inaweza kuwa kubwa sana hii ni pamoja na ardhi, hii ni kwa sababu aridhi yenye rutuba ya kuzalisha mimea ni kiasi kidogo sana dunia ukilinganisha na isyo na sifa. Hayo niliyo yaeleza kwa ufupi ndiyo yalisababisha hata mataifa ya scandinavia yenye misitu kwa wingi kushindwa kutumia biomass kama alternative source of energy na sasa wamejikita kwenye carbon-dioxide capture na wanaendelea vizuri katika hili. Kuna watu wengi wanatoa data za kupika kwenye biomass bila kuchambua technologia gani watakayo itumia kuzalisha huo umeme na kuwapa watu matumini ambayo kwenye economy of scale hayawezekani.

    Suluhisho:
    Wanadamu kubadilisha utaratibu wa maisha yao ya kila siku
    a) Kuuachana kutumia magari yenye engine kubwa bila sababu (3000CC and above), transport sector wanatumia kiasi kikubwa cha mafuta kuliko power generation. Hii ipo sana mataifa makubwa, mfano USA waseme raia wake watumie magari ya (2000CC) uchafuzi wa mazingira utapungua kwa kiasi kikubwa sana (USA wana magari zaidi ya 300 milion)
    b) Matumizi sahihi ya umeme, zima AC au Taa kama hutumii, tumia energy saver balbu etc ( Hapa tutaokoa nishati nyingi). Nchi kama Norway majengo mengi taa na heating system zinajiwasha na kujizima kutokana na mahitaji, wamefanikiwa sana katika energy saving.
    c) Tupande miti kwa wingi ili iweze kutumia CO2 tunayozalisha kutaka kwenye vyanzo vingine

    Samahani hii topic pana sana huwezi kuijadil hapa kirahisi, nimejaribu kueleza kwa ufupi sana.
     
  5. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

    #5
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    Hakuwezi kuwa na ajenda yoyote ya kuleta suluhisho la
    kudumu la nishati Tanzania kwasababu ya ufisadi.
    Suluhisho la kudumu litaua kuwepo kwa mikataba feki
    ya kampuni kama dowans.

    Hivyo basi cha kwanza ni kuondo ufisadi na kuweka
    uwajibikaji ambapo siasa itawekwa pembeni na taaluma
    husika, kufanya uchunguzi wa kina kuleta suluhisho la
    nishati la kudumu.
     
  6. A

    Ame JF-Expert Member

    #6
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    Hayo ni pamoja na ku invest kwenye sustainable energy sources ambazo ziko environmental friendly.

    Mbona twa jadili mpaka sasa?
     
  7. A

    Ame JF-Expert Member

    #7
    Dec 23, 2014
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    Proved beyond reasonable doubt kuwa hakuna political will katika kuweka permanent solution kwenye energy security ya nchi hii..... Uchaguzi ujao tuwabane wagonbea watueleze strategies zao katika hii problem. Tukizingatia energy ndiyo spearhead ya maendeleo ya nchi!
     
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