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Kibosile SYNOVATE kikaangoni TBC1 leo asubuhi

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Rutashubanyuma, Oct 12, 2010.

  1. Rutashubanyuma

    Rutashubanyuma JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Kibosile wa TBC1 leo asubuhi alikuwa na wakati mgumu wa kutetea utafiti wao ambao alidai ni wa kitalaamu lakini alishindwa kujibu hoja za kimsingi kutoka kwa mwanahabarishaji wa TBC1 Bw. Gabriel Zacharia.

    katika uchunguzi wangu, maeneo yafuatayo si REDET au SYNOVATE ambao wanaweza kutupa majibu ya kuridhisha na hivyo kufanya tafiti zao kutokuwa na sifa za kuitwa za kisayansi:-

    1) Vigezo walivyovitumia katika kuchagua ukubwa wa sampuli na majumuisho ya kimatabaka ya jamii ya sampuli hiyo ya utafiti wao hasa ukizingatia tafiti zao hawazifanyi kila wiki kama nchi zilizoendelea. Vile vile ifahamike hakuna takwimu za kuyabainisha makundi ya kijamii yalivyogawanyika kimapato, kitikadi n.k zaidi ya kutegemea taarifa za wahojiwa ambazo zaweza kuwa ni za kweli au la na hakuna namna ya kuzikagua.

    2) Kwa nini wao na REDET wanatofautiana sana katika matokeo ya tafiti zao. Hoja za matumizi ya mitaala tofauti haina mashiko kwa sababu lengo la utafiti ni kuweza kuibua hisia za jamii kwa wakati ule. Haiwezekani vyombo viwili tofauti vikatofautiana kiasi hicho katika kubainisha hisia za jamii ileile. Haya ni matokeo ya kupika matokeo tu ndiyo yanaweza kuleta taswira ya tofauti hizo juu ya hisia za jamii ileile.

    3) Wilaya zipo zaidi ya 110 hivi sampuli ya watu elfu mbili hivi, si yamaanisha chini ya watu ishirini kila wilaya. Utawapataje na kwa vigezo vipi ili kuhakikisha kila wilaya au jimbo la uchaguzi hisia zake zimewakilishwa ipasavyo na idadi ndogo hiyo ya watu hasa kwenye jamii yetu isiyo na utamaduni wa kuweka na kutunza rekodi za wanajamii?

    4) Kwa nini jamii inaonyesha kutoridhika na tafiti hizi mbili hasa ukizingatia ya kuwa SYNOVATE iliahidi kufanya utafiti kabla ya uchaguzi lakini baada ye REDET kuandamwa na jamii SYNOVATE wakatoa matokeo ya utafiti ambao kulingana na kauli zao wenyewe za SYNOVATE ni kwamba yaekea matokeo ya utafiti wao waliutoa kwenye droo ya meza na wala siyo kutoka kwenye jamii. Haiwezekani baada ya wiki moja tu baada ya Chadema kuwalalamikia na wao SYNOVATE kuahidi kufanya utafiti huo siku chache kabla ya uchaguzi halafu wiki inayofuata tayari wawe na matokeo mezani. Ni dhahiri huu tafiti hiyo ni wa kupika tu
     
  2. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #2
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Unajua neno "random" linapoteza maana pale unapoanza kuchagua mikoa, wilaya, kata na vigezo vingine.. it is not random when it is not random!
     
  3. Wambugani

    Wambugani JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Kwa hali ilivyo lazima wapate kigugumizi kwa vile hawaendi na hali halisi
     
  4. C

    CLAY KITUMBOY Senior Member

    #4
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Ngoja tusubiri watu wapige kura,tutaona kama kama utafiti huo ulipikwa au ulichemshwa au kukaangwa aha tusubiri
     
  5. M

    MAJANI YA KUNDE JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Haya ni Matokeo ya kujenga Taifa la wawababaishaji wanaopata Elimu ya juu kisanii,Siamini kama umetumia akili yako ya darasani mpaka Chuo kikuu,ukaja pata ajira yako kiuhalali unaweza ishusha Hadhi ya Elimu na Taaruma uliyo nayo kwa Kumfurahisha mtu mmoja Synovate na REEDET ni matokeo ya wasomi wababaishaji waliosoma kwa ujanjaujanja mpaka wakafikia hapo walipo,Nikionacho mimi lazima waisadie CCM Kwani unafanya kazi kijanja janja ole wenu nyie mnaotumia nafasi zenu kudanganya jamii itesekayo kwa kuwaamini ninyi.
     
  6. Njowepo

    Njowepo JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Niliona alijikanyaga sana.
     
  7. YanguHaki

    YanguHaki Senior Member

    #7
    Oct 12, 2010
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    My dear tafiti hizi za REDET na SYNOVATE zinaboronga eneo moja tu la " random sampling". Haiwezekani hata kidogo ukachukua sample ya wapiga kura 2000 ama 2600 kati ya wapiga kura milioni 19.6 sawa na 0.01% ukasema ni representative. Hapa sampling error ni kubwa. HUU NI UPUUZI KABISA! Kama wako serious afadhali wangesample at least 1% ya wapiga kura japo ingepaswa kuwa 4% onwards to reflect the characteristics of the population. Kama hawana resources ni vema wakaacha kuliko kufanya dhihaka ya taaluma ya STATISTICS. Inaingia akilini kuchukua maoni ya watu 20 kuwakilisha maoni ya maelfu ya watu kwenye wilaya moja? Kwa random sampling waliyotumia the larger the sample the more representative it is of the attributes of the population. Thus, the opposite is true. Napendekeza wawe wanatumia stratified random sampling in order to accommodate different sections of the population e.g vijana, watu wazima wenye range ya umri tofauti, wenye kiwango cha elimu fulani,kipato fulani,maeneo wanayoishi n.k.



    WAACHE WAENDELEE KUDANGANYA WATU-HATUDANGANYIKI!
     
  8. Utingo

    Utingo JF-Expert Member

    #8
    Oct 12, 2010
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    hao wote ni wahuni hawajaenda nje ya dar es salaam, wmefanyia mtaa wa Lumumba chini ya usimamizi wa Makamba na Kinana. I bet you hata std seven leavers wasingeweza kuwahoji watu 2500 tu kati ya watu zaidi ya milioni 16 wanaotazamiwa kupiga kura
     
  9. Jile79

    Jile79 JF-Expert Member

    #9
    Oct 12, 2010
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    tuwapuuze...........watz hatubadilishwi kwa propaganda za kipuuzi km hizo.....tunajua tunachokifanya tunataka mabadiliko kila kona ukiongea na watu hakuna anayeshabikia ccm............
     
  10. F2S

    F2S JF-Expert Member

    #10
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Wanajipendekeza kwa ccm kwani nani mjinga kuelewa srait forward wakipunguza % za JK watahukumiwa na kuondolewa kwenye ramani kabisa au hamjaona wanaondolewa ktk ramani kiaina baada tu ya kuwa tofauti na jk. Magufuli, Mwandosya, Malecela et al wanapotezwa kiaina hawa sembuse wewe REDET na SYNOVATE. Nawashauri toeni tafiti zingine safari hii semeni 90% jk mtapata shavu kubwa mkisema 50% jk mtapotezwa. Nawasifu ila akiingia Slaa Magogoni then itabidi tuwatafute mtueleze kinagaubaga wapi mlitudanganya naamini mtasema tu cause dictator mliekuwa manamuogopa atakuwa kando huko shambani.
     
  11. F2S

    F2S JF-Expert Member

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    Wasomi wapi hao tuliopita vyuoni twawafahamu wababaishaji tu. Kuna kizazi fulani lazima kipite ndo tutaendelea cause tunaona hata makazini vijana tuna hard time. Hatupewi nafasi hata kuonesha vipaji vyetu ila tunaogopwa kama ukoma. Hivi vizee have to go first.
     
  12. akashube

    akashube JF-Expert Member

    #12
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Kwa mara ya kwanza leo nimemuhurumia nyoka. Yaani jamaa alikuwa anajikanyaga kanyaga kujibu, kweli academician na uongo wa wazi wazi ni kama magharibi na mashariki kukutana.

    Stumbles, trembles, sweating under a severe cold air kwenye kipupwe cha studio, yaani vituko. Kweli wabongo wengine unga wanaupata kitumwa mno. Ndo mambo ya mbwa wa manzese na wa masaki haya.

    Yaani kambwa kalikuwa kanabweka kwa kuscratch, utadhani mbwembwe kumbe maji yamefika utosini.
     
  13. babayah67

    babayah67 JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Mhh mi sidhani kama walofanya utafiti huu ni matokeo ya wasomi wababaishaji au waliosoma kwa ujanjaujanja. Nasita kukubaliana na wewe. Kwani Viongozi wote wa REDET ni ma Docta, wengi wao wamesoma wakati wa mwalimu, elimu ya bure ilokuwa ni nzuri saana tu. Tatizo si elimu walizonazo hao watu, BALI tatizo ni NAFSI zao, haijalishi ana elimu kiasi gani. Kinachoangaliwa ni nini dhamira yake. Anatumia elimu alopewa kuwahujumu watanzania wengi walojitolea pesa zao kuwasomesha. Majibu ya tafiti hizi hayakidhi haja kwa njia yoyote ile. Njia sahihi ni wananchi kujitokeza kwa wingi siku ya kupiga kura na kuwaonyesha hao watafiti kuwa waliyoyatoa kama matokeo ya utafiti wao hayakuwakilisha hali halisi kwenye GROUND.
     
  14. Aza

    Aza JF-Expert Member

    #14
    Oct 12, 2010
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    tafiti za ajabu sana hizi...
     
  15. akashube

    akashube JF-Expert Member

    #15
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    No further comments.
     
  16. J

    Jafar JF-Expert Member

    #16
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Nchi hii inashangaza sana hasa wasomi pale wanapoingiza uongo kwenye taaluma
     
  17. TUKUTUKU

    TUKUTUKU JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Oct 12, 2010
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    My dear tafiti hizi za REDET na SYNOVATE zinaboronga eneo moja tu la " random sampling". Haiwezekani hata kidogo ukachukua sample ya wapiga kura 2000 ama 2600 kati ya wapiga kura milioni 19.6 sawa na 0.01% ukasema ni representative. Hapa sampling error ni kubwa. HUU NI UPUUZI KABISA! Kama wako serious afadhali wangesample at least 1% ya wapiga kura japo ingepaswa kuwa 4% onwards to reflect the characteristics of the population. Kama hawana resources ni vema wakaacha kuliko kufanya dhihaka ya taaluma ya STATISTICS. Inaingia akilini kuchukua maoni ya watu 20 kuwakilisha maoni ya maelfu ya watu kwenye wilaya moja? Kwa random sampling waliyotumia the larger the sample the more representative it is of the attributes of the population. Thus, the opposite is true. Napendekeza wawe wanatumia stratified random sampling in order to accommodate different sections of the population e.g vijana, watu wazima wenye range ya umri tofauti, wenye kiwango cha elimu fulani,kipato fulani,maeneo wanayoishi n.k.
    Yanguhaki:I like your comment,what you have said is very truth,when you want to conduct a research on any matter, you must comply with roles and regulations of research.Otherwise,findings that shall be revealed will be useless,as the same reseach can be conducted by someone else,and he/she would come up with different findings,this means reliability and validity were completely impaired.
     
  18. M

    Mkulima JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Kitu ambacho kinajitokeza tena na tena kwenye mijadala ya hizi opinion polls ni kwamba Watanzania wengi hatujui hizi tafiti zinafanywa vipi. Hatujui sample inakusanywa vipi na wengine wana question ukubwa wa sample.

    Kwa mfano watu wengi na safari zote wanashangaa kwanini watu 2000 tu kati ya watu milioni 40? Hii ni ishara tosha kwamba elimu yetu haikidhi haja ya kutoa wasomi hasa wale waliomaliza chuo kikuu ambao wanaweza kufanya tafiti japo ndogo. Maana kama mtu huyo ana question mambo hata ambayo ni basic kwenye tafiti kama hizo ni kwamba sio ajabu hata statistics na probability hajawahi kukutana nayo maishani.

    Tunaweza ku question bias kwenye utafiti lakini ukubwa wa sample ni issue ndogo sana.

    Haina maana kwasababu opinion poll hiyo imehusisha watu 2000 basi walihojiwa 2000. Inawezekana hata wakahoji watu 20,000 ila baada ya hapo ndipo wanaanza kuchunja ili kupata watu wanaofit vyema kwenye criteria walizojiwekea. Ndio maana wahusika wanatakiwa wasiwe na upendeleo vinginevyo opinion poll inakuwa haina maana.

    Kama ni kuwabana REDET au Synovate basi iwe kwenye suala la je hawako biased? Njia walizotumia kufanya utafiti wao ndio zinatumika duniani kote. USA yenye watu 300m kikawaida wanatumia sample mpaka za watu 800 kuwakilisha jamii.

    Ni gharama sana kufanya utafiti wa maelfu ya watu wakati faida inayoongezeka ni ndogo sana. Kwa mfano ukihusisha watu 2000 unaweza kuta makosa kwenye utafiti wako ni 5% lakini ukihusisha 20,000 makosa yakawa 4%. Tofauti ya asilimia moja haiendani na cost kubwa ya kufanya utafiti wa watu wengi na ndio maana watafiti wengi wanatumia namba ndogo.

    Hiyo ni opinion poll na opinion poll iliyo sahihi ni hapo tarehe 31/10/2010, hakuna haja ya kutoana ngeu kubishana juu ya hili wakati baada ya wiki mbili tutajua ukweli.
     
  19. A

    Akiri JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Oct 12, 2010
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    Du. nimeshangazwa na ujasiri wa mtangazaji, alikuwa anamuuliza maswali magumu na jamaa alionekana wazi kubabaika. hakuwa na majibu ya kueleweka. nadhani jamaa alikwenda studio akijua atahojiwa na marine hassana yule anayejipendekeza kwa mafisadi. Du kakutana na kichwa jamaa ni pande la mtu lakini alikuwa mdogo kama joti. kudadek
     
  20. Mtende

    Mtende JF-Expert Member

    #20
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    sure kwa wale wataalam wa research nadhani mmeipata maana kamili ya random
     
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