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Kenya in precarious situtation as Ethiopia's stability in doubt after Meles death.

Discussion in 'Kenyan News and Politics' started by Nairoberry, Aug 21, 2012.

  1. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Aug 21, 2012
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    ethiopia is the most staunchest ally of kenya in the eastern africa and africa as a whole. the demise of zenawi could lead to ethnic and religious anarchy in ethiopia. the resulting fallout could lead to serious consequences in the region namely insecurity as its spills out of Ethiopia borders. ethiopia had the only army in the region maybe capable of matching Kenya's one if not defeating it. Ethiopia powerful army ranked fourth in Africa could break down along the fault lines of ethnicity and religion releasing a monster of all armed conflicts. well for this particular reason Kenyans are the most worried lot, having their army occupied in clearing terrorists in Somalia, none would be looking forward to seeing a new front opening up in the north. Ethiopia traditionally formed the northern safety barrier against the wild tribes and conflicts of the horn of Africa. kenya in return formed the southern safety barrier for safety of ethiopia. this led to the 1963 PACT signed by haile selassie and jomo kenyatta which stated that the two countries should help one another in times of and attack by external forces. this PACT was put to test when somalia invaded and occupied the ogaden region of ethiopia, kenya unfortunately could not send troops to help Ethiopia since Uganda under idi amin was planning for such a scenario that would leave Kenya exposed so that they invade Kenya. the decision as to not send troops to Ethiopia resulted in idi amin choosing the better option of invading and annexing kagera region as Tanzania was considered a soft spot. nevertheless Ethiopia and Kenya have worked together for a long time. and many Kenyans will hope that Ethiopia can pull together and emerge as one past meles zenawi. if not Kenya will just have to carry another burden and send troops to pacify Ethiopia,hopefully it will not have to reach to that.
     
  2. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

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    how do you know that i am a******** have we ever met? spread love not hate. am surprised ab tichaz is silent on your hate but quick to react on others
     
  3. Kijakazi

    Kijakazi JF-Expert Member

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    If you feel offended then sorry for that, I was just trying to comment on the article which I guess is about the country of Kenya and Kenyans who feel they have something in common (not so sure If I got it right since its in English) with Ethiopians, and the majority of Kenyans fit the description I mentioned above, so if you are not among them then pole! But still that does not change the fact on how Ethiopians view the vast majority of Kenyans whether you spread love mpaka mbinguni (heaven) or not, haitabadilisha kitu (it wont change anything as far as the way Ethiopans see majority of Kenyans)
     
  4. Mwali

    Mwali JF-Expert Member

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    Brother, are you Ethiopian? Are you Tanzanian?
    Did you make any search or did you gather any data?
    Even if your allegations were right (which I doubt)
    How would that be pertinent on a national level?
    Do you think political actions are based on feelings?
    I am shocked at you reasoning kwa kweli...
     
  5. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

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    thank you. we need more sober and rational people like you in jf
     
  6. Hoshea

    Hoshea JF-Expert Member

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    Mwali na Kijakazi ishieni hapo jamani, ni nini shida sasa aah, mwali dont worry his successor will be just like him nothing will hinder yo relationship na wewe kijakazi fanya kazi mwache mwali alone , anaweza akawa mwali wa muethiopian, haya chini ya hapa sitaki mabishano yenu ntawablock humu mkiendelea.
    :israel: :israel: :israel::israel:
     
  7. Kijakazi

    Kijakazi JF-Expert Member

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    Then you tell me they based on what?
    hauna haja ya kujali nilichoandika nimetoa maoni yangu kuhusu wakenya wanavyowaona Waethiopia na Waethiopia wanavyowaona Wakenya uwiano ni 2:1, unaweza ukaignore and move on na kuendelea kujadili hiyo topic!
     
  8. r

    radica Member

    #8
    Aug 21, 2012
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    Mna akili fupi wote wawili na mkioana mtaleta tahira. You better block them, they have poor self image.
     
  9. Mwali

    Mwali JF-Expert Member

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    Uliandika ili members tusome, na tukisoma tunaruhusiwa kucriticize
    ulitegemea kuandika unacho taka bila kuweza kukitetea na tukuache?
    As naendelea kujadili topic lazima ni-discard na posts za kupotosha!
    Basi nomba tuishie hapa tusiharibu mada ya Nairobery kama hutojali
     
  10. Askari Kanzu

    Askari Kanzu JF-Expert Member

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    these are the words of an alarmist. your analysis is pathetic, to say the least. Kenya will never dare to "send troops to pacify Ethiopia", as that is beyond KDF's ability.
     
  11. aminiusiamini

    aminiusiamini JF-Expert Member

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    Mbona sijawahi kusikia chuki wakenya na waethiopia? Nachoweza sema Ethiopians are happy that this guy is dead. Now ni muda kujenga nchi sio kutafutana chokochoko. I believe ethiopians will be liberated soon.
     
  12. G

    Geza Ulole JF-Expert Member

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    wanagombea Ilemi triangle
     
  13. kshaka

    kshaka JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Aug 22, 2012
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    Physician, heal thyself!
     
  14. Ab-Titchaz

    Ab-Titchaz Content Manager Staff Member

    #14
    Aug 22, 2012
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    Here is a more balanced take on the death of Zenawi:


    What loss of Ethiopia PM means to Kenya and the region



    [​IMG]

    World leaders mourned the death of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi with high praise after the strongman's more than two decades in power and despite a chequered human rights' record August 21, 2012 Nation Media Group.

    By RASHID ABDI
    Posted Tuesday, August 21 2012 at 20:21

    In Summary

    • Widely regarded as highly intelligent, articulate and with an excellent grasp of complex policy issues, Mr Meles helped raise Ethiopia's regional and international profile.
    • The country will remain a key player in the regional "axis of moderates" engaged in the battle against the extremist Somali Islamist movement Al-Shabaab.
    • Kenya and Ethiopia have a similar outlook and share the same concerns about Somalia.

    The death of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has thrown the Horn of Africa nation into a period of deep uncertainty.

    The death has profound regional implications, especially for Kenya and Somalia. Many leaders are expressing fears the death may have serious repercussions for peace and stability in the region.

    Concern has been mounting in Nairobi and Mogadishu since reports emerged four weeks ago that the Ethiopian leader was critically ill in a Belgian hospital.

    That concern has now turned into anxiety, judging from the initial reaction.

    Widely regarded as highly intelligent, articulate and with an excellent grasp of complex policy issues, Mr Meles helped raise Ethiopia's regional and international profile.

    In Kenya, he was mourned as an African leader whose "pragmatic and visionary" leadership was instrumental in the efforts to stabilize Somalia and Sudan and to contain Eritrea.

    His death does certainly create new complications for regional governments. However, it is unlikely to cause a huge geopolitical upset.

    The country will remain a key player in the regional "axis of moderates" engaged in the battle against the extremist Somali Islamist movement Al-Shabaab.

    But his departure could intensify inter-state rivalry between the ambitious new players in Somalia, especially Kenya and Uganda. Al-Shabaab has issued a statement saying the death of the Ethiopian strongman could cause a collapse of the regional military alliance.

    This, however, could be wishful thinking, for in Ethiopia the military incursions in Somalia enjoy broad support. With close to 10,000 troops stationed in south-central Somalia, the Ethiopian military is likely to play a crucial role in the battle to take control of Kismayu.

    While it is true Ethiopia has no desire for a lengthy stay in Somalia, it recognises it cannot leave the job half-done. For that reason, Addis Ababa's military support for the Amisom troops will continue, no matter who is in charge.

    Kenya and Ethiopia have a similar outlook and share the same concerns about Somalia. There have been differences in the last two years over a number of issues, especially the plan to create Jubba land in southern Somalia.

    But these differences are unlikely to undermine the overall strategic partnership – the most remarkable and enduring in the Horn. The two countries have also been instrumental in the efforts to stabilize South Sudan.

    There have been efforts in Addis Ababa recently to find a permanent solution to a number of issues that have pushed the two Sudans to the brink of war.

    Mr Meles was involved in these negotiations and his absence will no doubt be felt. But it is unlikely this fact alone could undermine the talks.

    The writer is the religious editor at Nation Media Group

    What loss of Ethiopia PM means to Kenya and the region - Opinion|nation.co.ke
     
  15. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

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    what makes you think this analysis is better than mine??
     
  16. Ab-Titchaz

    Ab-Titchaz Content Manager Staff Member

    #16
    Aug 22, 2012
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    I don't think you are being sincere with yourself by asking that question.

    Lemmie help you out a little bit. That piece you wrote up there, if at all its yours, needs a some cleaning
    up so that it fits the bill of a good grammatical article (for lack a of a better word). The man you are trying
    to posture yourself against is a writer for the Nation Media Group and I believe that speaks something about
    his views. Do you write articles for any media outlet out there that we need to know of?

    The gist of your article is to let us think that Ethiopia's demise can only be aided by the 'mighty army' of
    the Kenya barracks. That's where your objectivity finds its way to the window. I believe if we need views
    on Ethiopia and the region after Zenawi, then we know where to find them.

    Here goes another one:


    Ethiopia after Meles Zenawi



    By ARGAW ASHINE (email the author)

    Posted Tuesday, August 21 2012 at 11:49
    In Summary



    • [*=1]Mr. Meles Zenawi died at the age of 57 on Monday mid night in a hospital abroad.
      [*=1]Meles ruled the country since 1991.
      [*=1]Deputy prime minister and foreign minister Mr. Hailemariam Desalegn will be an interim leader of the country until the parliament elect a new prime minister.

    Ethiopia could be in for a bumpy ride ahead as the country seeks to come to terms with the huge vacuum left by the death of its totalitarian leader Meles Zenawi.

    According to analysts, Mr Meles' excessive role in the day-to-day operations of the government weakened its institutional ability, suggesting difficult days ahead for a transition.

    Born in Adawa town of the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia in 1955 and one of the most brilliant students of his time, Mr Meles, who has died at the age of 57, joined Addis Ababa University's medical school before quitting to join the Tigrayan rebels movement against Mengistu Hailemariam's brutal military regime.

    Outspoken, humorous and hot-headed, Mr Meles became the leader of the guerrilla movement in 1989 and overthrew Mengistu in 1991. He that year became President of Ethiopia's transitional government at the age of 34, and became prime minister in 1995.

    During his 21 years in power, Mr Meles ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist.

    His inner power base eliminated potential opponents, restricted media freedom and tightly controlled the operations of non-governmental organisations.

    Thousands across the vast country were also jailed due to their differing political stands.


    His ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) honed the "developmental state" leadership style which restricts democratic rights and emphasises on development and the alleviation of poverty.

    Mr Meles was a key western ally in the region, particularly the US in its fight against terrorism in the horn of Africa region.

    He was also a key player in Somalia affairs and in the negotiations for peace between former civil war foes Sudan and South Sudan.

    Mr Meles was a chief negotiator for Africa in climate change talks, chairman of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad) and in the regional Intergovernmental Authority for Development (Igad) bloc.

    He is credited for building a fast-growing economy (has averaged eight per cent growth for the last seven years) and huge infrastructure projects spanning road, telecoms and giant hydropower dams across the nation of 85 million.

    Recently he was at the forefront of an ambitious multi-billion dollar infrastructure project that roped in Kenya and South Sudan.

    His death brings both opportunity and challenges for Ethiopia and the wider eastern African region in terms of stability and democratisation.

    The country is currently facing around 12 armed opposition groups include secessionist groups fronted by Ogaden and Oromo rebels, while it maintains a bitter relationship with Eritrea, which seceded peacefully.

    In the short term there may be no regime change, but various political scenarios suggest Ethiopia is set to turn a new political chapter.

    The ruling EPRDF coalition includes the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) created in the 1980s, the Oromo People's Democratic Front (1990) and the Southern People's Democratic Movement (SPDM) formed in 1992, all under the "supervision" of the dominant Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), of which Mr Meles has been the long-time chairman.

    Mr Meles was a Tigray, who form only about five per cent of the population, but dominate government, including in the military and intelligence.

    Deputy prime minister and foreign minister Hailemariam Desalegn, a southerner, is expected to be appointed as new interim leader until the EPRDF-dominated parliament appoints a new prime minister.

    Mr Hailemariam is a water engineer and former university lecturer and may appease the majority ethnic groups such as the Amhara.

    Three possible post-Meles scenarios are immediately evident.

    One has the powerful Tigrayans (or Tigrians) fighting to retain their stranglehold on the military and intelligence apparatus.

    Unless TPLF power barons crush all opposition, the Amhara would certainly want to use the Meles vacuum to come back to power either through negotiations or by taking up arms.

    In the case of the latter option, wider instability and chaos would ensue, with a distracted Ethiopia unable to carry out its important policing role in the Horn of Africa.

    Another scenario ropes in regional trouble spot Eritrea, Ethiopia's arch-foe. The two countries fought a deadly border war in 1998-2000, with death tolls estimated to have reached 100,000.

    They both maintain hundreds of thousands of troops in the border town of Badme, which Asmara accuses Ethiopia of occupying.

    Eritrea could use multiple techniques to weaken Addis Ababa, including by propping up more rebel groups. Somali, Oromo and other rebel groups are currently based in Asmara, long a source of angst for Mr Meles.

    Eritrea could also wage all-out war if the TPLF leadership is seen to be in disarray.

    On the other hand the TPLF could also attack Eritrea in an attempt to unite Ethiopians behind a war and impose emergency rule.

    The third scenario involves pseudo-compromise, where the TPLF could allow a non-Tigrayan party to come to power, while maintaining its grip on the military and intelligence arms.

    Ethiopia after Meles Zenawi*- News*|theeastafrican.co.ke
     
  17. Safari_ni_Safari

    Safari_ni_Safari JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Aug 22, 2012
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    And what a soft spot it was for Idd Amin
     
  18. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Aug 22, 2012
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    some times ab tichaz i wonder what you are studying in america,however the only constant thing is that you are not progressing in terms of wisdom. so now i have to be a writer so that my views be balanced? so i have to write articles in the nation media group for you to see them balanced? son just come home you are a dissapointment :A S cry::A S cry:
     
  19. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

    #19
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    my point is that most Tanzanians have been wondering why idi amin invaded them, so the answer is as stated
     
  20. Nairoberry

    Nairoberry JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Aug 22, 2012
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    read your geography well ,elemi is being contested by south sudan NOT Ethiopia. ethiopia and kenya have a long good relationship and by the way once south Sudan oil passes through Kenya they will be under Kenya mercy
     
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