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Je Kikwete atakubali matokeo au atakuwa kama Mugabe

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Quinine, Aug 5, 2010.

  1. Quinine

    Quinine JF-Expert Member

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    Wengi tunajua historia ya Zimbabwe kwa takriban chaguzi mbili hivi Mugabe anashindwa na mpinzani wake wa karibu Tsvangirai. Kwenye uchaguzi uliopita pamoja na chama cha MDC kuwa na wabunge wengi lakini Mugabe kwa ubabe wake bado anang'ang'ania ikulu.

    Tunamuomba Kikwete asiige wala asithubutu kufanya hivyo maana ataliangamiza taifa na kuandika historia mpya. Hatutaki yatokee ya Zimbabwe na Kenya, kama alivyoingia salama ndivyo hivyo atakavyotoka salama na heshima yake italindwa, ni angalizo tu.
     
  2. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Kikwete tatizo la kukubali matokeo hana, kwani anajua atashinda kihalali tu.

    In fact ana confidence atashinda kihalali kiasi kawatukana walimu na kusema hahitaji kura zao.

    Kwa wakati huu upinzani unachofanya ni kupunguza margin ya ushindi wa CCM katika mbio za urais na kuongeza viti vya bunge, lakini hakuna matumaini ya kikweli kwamba Kikwete atashindwa urais.

    As much as I don't like Kikwete, kwenye ukweli kwa mujibu wa kila trend itabidi tuseme.

    Hizi habari nyingine za kujifariji kwamba Slaa/ upinzani watashinda urais zitabaki hivyo tu, kujifariji. Na mie ninayekwambia hivyo si mfuasi, mshabiki wala mwanachama wa CCM. Rekodi yangu hapa itaongea. Lakini sitaki kuwa naive.

    Lakini bado pigieni kura upinzani kupunguza asilimia za Kikwete.

    Habari ndiyo hiyo.
     
  3. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

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    CCM is a juggernaut! They (It) will win easily and convincingly. Anybody who thinks otherwise they are deluding themselves. It is going to be a while before CCM can lose in the general election especially the presidency....
     
  4. Quinine

    Quinine JF-Expert Member

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    Asante kwa mchango wako, hivi mwenye confidence ni nani wewe au Kikwete, mbona mwenyewe juzi alisema mdharau mwiba guu humuota tende alikuwa na maana gani, confidence juu au chini.
     
  5. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

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    Sasa yeye hawezi ku-flash confidence yake nje nje kihivyo...deep down anajua muhula wa pili ni wake.
     
  6. Quinine

    Quinine JF-Expert Member

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    bunge je? si ndiyo ninayosema ya Mugabe.
     
  7. Quinine

    Quinine JF-Expert Member

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    si kweli mara ngapi walikuwa wanaimba ule wimbo wao wa ushindi wa kishindo mbona siku hizi wanamng'unya maneno hawasemi kwa tambo kama enzi zile.
     
  8. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Huwezi kutegemea consistency kutoka kwa Kikwete. Mtu huyu huyu aliyewaambia walimu hana haja na kura zao, anasema mdharau mwiba kama ulivyomripoti.

    Mimi naona asingekuwa na confidence asingewaambia walimu kwamba hataki kura zao, kauli hii sijawahi kuisikia kutoka kwa mwanasiasa tangu nianze kufuatilia siasa. Hata huyo Nyerere mwenyewe aliyekuwa mgombea pekee miaka kibao, kwenye kura za NDIYO/HAPANA sikumbuki kwamba alisema hivyo. Sasa kwangu mimi hiyo ni confidence. Which is not always too good by the way, a politician should never be that comfortable.

    Hayo mambo ya kusema "mdharau mwiba..." anaweza kuwa anasema kuondoa soo tu aonekane anajali na anaomba kura za watu, lakini ukishafanya slip kama kusema hutaki kura za walimu wasiokutaka, baadaye ukija kusema "mdharau mwiba..." watu makini tunaona ile kauli ya kwanza ndiyo moyo wako unavyojisikia hakika, hii ya pili ni kujaribu kujisafisha, damage control na PR.
     
  9. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

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    Hata bunge CCM watafunika tu unless a miracle of biblical proportions happens..... Mark my words

    Tatizo ni watu, the electorate. We don't have sustained indignation as a whole and we fail to connect the current state of affairs with/ to CCM. Once we able to do that and be able to sustain our anger, we can kiss CCM goodbye....
     
  10. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Mbona unaenda mbali sana huko ? Watu hawaelewi/ hawaamini hata "cause and effect" in this context, wewe unaongelea nuanced complexities za sustained indignation? Ukiwaambia hicho kitu si ajabu watakwambia indignation i bad for your bile and digestive system, the few of them who may happen to know biology at that level.

    Safari ndefu, style ya "What Is The What"
     
  11. Quinine

    Quinine JF-Expert Member

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    Kiranga

    hakuna mgombea makini duniani anayekataa kura ya mtu hata ikiwa moja asikudanganye mtu labda huyo anategemea kushinda kwa wizi, Kikwete hana cha confidence wala nini labda confidence yake ni ya kuiba hapo sawa, lakini kama ni ya utumishi na utendaji bora hapo tudanganye tutakubali.
     
  12. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Umepatia kwa kusema hakuna mgombea (mwanasiasa) makini ambaye atakataa kura. Of course an argument can always be made kwamba kuna ma statesmen waliopita level ya uanasiasa ambao wanaweza kukataa kura za watu fulani on principle (Kikwete hajafikia level hii na issue yenyewe haikuwa clearcut hivyo kuisema ni ya principle kihivyo)

    Lakini umekosea kwa (inavyoonekana) kufikiri kwamba Kikwete ni mgombea makini angalau katika sense ya kwamba ni calculating.

    Sababu iliyomfanya Kikwete kukataa kura, pamoja na confidence, ni kutokuwa makini. Nina hakika Nyerere alikuwa na confidence zaidi ya Kikwete, na principle zaidi ya Kikwete, lakini alimzidi Kikwete umakini na ndiyo maana hakuna rekodi ya Nyerere kukataa kura.
     
  13. Raia Fulani

    Raia Fulani JF-Expert Member

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    Muda si mrefu nimesikia toka kwa wadau kuwa injini ya ccm ni Mwiru
     
  14. Mag3

    Mag3 JF Gold Member

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    Naomba ufafanuzi hapa Mkuu Kiranga, unaamini hana tatizo la kukubali matokeo kwani anajua atashinda kihalali kwa nguvu zake kama Kikwete au kwa nguvu ya CCM ?

    Naomba ufafanuzi mwingine Mkuu Kiranga unadai ana confidence atashinda kihalali (kiasi cha kuwatukana na kusema hahitaji kura zao) kama Mrisho Jakaya Kikwete au kama mgombea Uraisi kwa tiketi ya CCM ?

    Majibu ya maswali haya mawili ni muhimu sana kabla sijaingia ndani zaidi kwa nini naamini Kikwete hana hakika kama atashinda na hana confidence kabisaa ya kushinda kihalali.
     
  15. Pakawa

    Pakawa JF-Expert Member

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    Kwa nini asikubali kwani urais alizaliwa nao bana?!! Kitaeleweka tu mwaka huu
     
  16. MwanaFalsafa1

    MwanaFalsafa1 JF-Expert Member

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    So far kwenye chaguzi za uraisi wa Tanzania (na exclude upande wa Zanzibar) sidhani kama kume kuwa na wizi wa kura. Najua kuna irregularities za hapa na pale ila sidhani kwamba chama cha upinzani kimesha wahi kushinda uchaguzi Tanzania na nitaelezea sababu zangu. Kwa wale wakereketwa wa upinzani ambao hawa pendi kusikia ukweli mta nisamehe ila reality is reality.

    Tuchukulie mfano uchaguzi wa mwaka 2005. Kikwete alishinda kwa asilimia 81(81%). Sasa mtu una weza ukamake argument na kusema kiwango hicho ni exaggerated, sawa hapo nita sikiliza argument yako. Lakini kwa mfano useme upinzani 2005 ulishindwa haiwezekani. Asilimia 81 ina maana zime baki asilimia 19 ambazo zili gawanywa kwa wagombea wengine(Just for reference CUF kilishika nafasi ya pili 2005). Hapo hauwezi kuniambia kwamba CCM iliiba kura kiasi cha kufika asilimia 81. Ingekua hivyo regularities zingekuwa wazi sana. So you can make the argument kwamba labda hawa kushinda kwa asilimia 81 lakini hauwezi kuiniambia walishindwa.

    2005 Lipumba alipata asilimia 11 na ushee Mbowe aka pata asilimia 5 na ushe. Kwa hiyo on virtue ya uchaguzi uliopita tuassume bado CUF ndicho chama cha pili kwa umaarufu Tanzania. Chadema ambao wana tarajia kuongeza kura mwaka huu tuassume wao ndiyo contenders au "rising stars" wa uchaguzi. Je CUF kima fanya nini miaka hii mitano kuhakikisha hizo asilimia 11 zinaongezeka? Na Chadema nacho pamoja na kuwa na mgombea tumaini la wengi je wame fanya nini kupanda toka asilimia 5 kwenda juu? Bado ni vigumu kuamini kwamba ndani ya miaka mitano chama kilicho pata asilimia 11 au asilimia 5 kina weza kupanda ghafla bin vuu na kuvuka kura asilimia 51 za kuukwaa uraisi.

    I say CCM is still strong. Chadema wana mgombea bora kuliko Kikwete no doubt(kwa sasa ni vigumu kuwa na mgombea atakae onekana hovyo kuliko huyu mkuu) lakini bado at grassroots level CCM bado ina nguvu sana. Tukumbuke kwamba wengi wetu hatu shawishiwi na vyombo vya habari kuhusu nani tumpigie kura. Wengi wetu political influence zina tokana na familia zetu, majirani zetu na jamii inayo tuzunguuka. Wakati vyama vya upinzani vinaenda kunadi wagombea wao huku chini kuna baba ana mshawishi mama na watoto wapigie kura chama fulani. Je hapo mtu ata msikiliza nani? Mgombea au mtu aliye karibu nae? Kuna small things kwa juu juu havionekani ila vinaipa CCM advantage kubwa tu.
     
  17. H

    Hofstede JF-Expert Member

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    Tactically and technically CCM will always win whether they are elected or not unless, CCM to be divided into two equally powerful parties with electoral fraud logisticians equally take sides. Opposition parties in Tanzania is a total failure, they can not rally Tanzanians towards free and fair elections by demanding new constitution, free electoral commission. The ruling class always will not give you an opportunity to defeat them by changing the axis of their power. The only way for good people who loves their country is to stand and say no enough is enough we want free and fair elections before going into playfield.
     
  18. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Of course Kikwete kashapitishwa na CCM na sasa hivi ndiye mgombea pekee wa CCM, kwa hiyo namuongelea Kikwete mgombea wa CCM. Kikwete si mgombea wa CHADEMA kwa hiyo huwezi kusema kwamba naongelea Kikwete mgombea wa CHADEMA. Tanzania hairuhusu ugombea binafsi, kwa hiyo huwezi kusema namuongelea Kikwete mtu binafsi.

    Maswali yako yanaibua maswali ya kufikirika, vipi kama Kikwete angekataliwa na CCM, halafu CCM wakamuweka mgombea mwingine, Kikwete angekuwa na confidence aliyonayo sasa? Angekuwa na nafasi aliyonayo sasa? Of course asingekuwa navyo, kwani CCM ina party machinery na name recognition nchi nzima.

    Wakati Benjamin William Mkapa anateuliwa kuwa rais wala hata hakuwa anajulikana. In fact hata katika kutangaza nia alikuwa ni mtu wa mwisho nafikiri. Na watu wengine walisema wanamjua zaidi Ken Mkapa (Mchezaji mpira wa Yanga) kuliko Benjamin Mkapa. Lakini kwa sababu alikuwa mgombea wa CCM alipita.

    Vivyo hivyo Ally Hassan Mwinyi, mtu ambaye alishajiuzulu uwaziri kwa scandal la mauaji ya vibibi. Lakini CCM ikamshika mkono miezi michache tu baada ya kutangazwa kama "rais wa muda Zanzibar" baada ya kipindi cha "machafuko ya hali ya hewa ya kisiasa" huko Zanzibar yaliyomfanya Sheikh Aboud Jumbe Mwinyi kujiuzulu, lakini watu wakaimba "Ally Mwinyi Ally Mwinyi, NDIYO, NDIYO, NDIYO, mwenye busara na hekima,NDIYO NDIYO NDIYO" watoto wa kihuni katika kubeza collectivism miaka ya baadaye (miaka ile hata Mzee Maharage aliogopa kumkataa) wakaja ku parody wimbo kwa kuongeza "aliku--ra migombani, NDIYO, NDIYO,NDIYO".

    Kwa nini nasema haya yote ? Naonyesha umuhimu wa chama katika kampeni, chama kinaweza kumchukua mtu aliyekaa kama jiwe na kumfanya rais. Tanzania CCM ndiyo inachagua rais, si watanzania per se.

    Lakini miaka hii ya karibuni, ambapo tunaona hata CCM inagawanyika katika makundi, mtu anaweza kusema hii automaton inaanza kwisha na kila mtu anaanza kujipalilia mwenyewe ndani ya chama na katika makundi haya.

    Ndiyo ukauliza, huyu Kikwete ana confience yeye mwenyewe au kwa tiketi ya CCM ? Narudia, of course kwa tiketi ya CCM, kwani yeye hajaona kilichompata Mrema ?

    Ila kwa sababu sasa hivi CCM hawana utamaduni wa kumkataa rais kumalizia muhula wa pili, na kwa sababu Kikwete tayari ndiye de facto / de jure mgombea wa CCM pekee (baada ya Shibuda kugwaya) as far as the campaign is concerned hakuna tofauti kati ya Jakaya Kikwete the person and the CCM candidate.

    After all Tanzania hatuna utamaduni wa kufuatisha institutions kama vyama, bado tuna utamaduni wa kufuatisha strongmen.

    Na Kikwete ndiye strongman wa CCM, kama si Tanzania.
     
  19. Mag3

    Mag3 JF Gold Member

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    Mkuu MwanaFalsafa1 naelewa sana unachojaribu kukielezea ila ningependa nikukumbushe kuwa kulingana na mwamko wa hivi sasa, dont rule anything out na naomba uzingatie haya ;

    • Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu wa mwaka 2005 Chadema haikuwa tishio hata kidogo kwenye chaguzi zote mbili zilizofanyika kwenye majimbo ya Busanda na Biharamulo na iliishia kuambulia karibu asilimia 5% tu ya kura katika majimbo yote mawili.
    • Kwenye chaguzi ndogo zilizofanyika miaka minne baadaye 2009, Chadema huko Busanda iliweza kutoa ushindani mkali kwa chama cha CCM kwa kupata asilimia 42% na Biharamulo ikazoa asilimia 48% ya kura zote pamoja na mizengwe yote ya chama tawala.
    Hebu fanya hesabu utuambie ongezeko kama hilo ni asilimia ngapi na ueleze ni kwa nini bado ni vigumu kwako kuamini kwamba ndani ya miaka mitano chama kilicho pata asilimia 11 au asilimia 5 kina weza kupanda ghafla bin vuu na kuvuka kura asilimia 51 za kuukwaa uraisi. Pia naomba uzingatie kuwa hadi wakati huo mgombea Uraisi kutoka Chadema bado alikuwa hajajitokeza na hivyo hivyo mwamko kama tunavyoushuhudia hivi leo ulikuwa bado.
     
  20. X-PASTER

    X-PASTER Moderator

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    Je vyama vya upinzani navyo vitakubali matokeo kama Kikwete akishinda kwa kishindoo?
     
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