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Intervention

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by bnhai, Jul 7, 2011.

  1. b

    bnhai JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 7, 2011
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    Wiki hii na iliyopita, Benki kuu imefanya intervention kwenye pesa yetu na hivyo kuongeza uwepo wa US dolllar kwenye mzunguko. Licha ya kuingilia hali ya soko, bado hali ya fedha yetu imeendelea kuwa ya kusuasua zaidi. Lakini hata hivyo, hainyoshi kuwa BOT inauwezo wa kuendelea kuintervene kwenye hali tete ya sarafu yetu maana akiba ya fedha ya kigeni itapungua. Huko Kenya na Uganda hali ni mbaya zaidi baada ya kukumbukwa na njaa pamoja na madhara ya kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta. Jijini nairobi kwa mujibu wa bbc unga wa ugali unauzwa kiasi cha dollar 1 kwa kilo wakati Uganda jana walifanya maandamano makubwa wakiitaka serikali ikabiliane na hali tete ya pesa yao.
    Kiuhalisia, licha ya intervention hali itaendelea kuwa mbaya Tanzania na huenda mwisho wa mwaka mambo yakawa magumu zaidi kutokana na mgawo wa umeme wa kila mara, mikoa 16 kukumbwa na uhaba wa chakula kutokana na ukame na kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta. Hivyo, kwa ushauri ni kwamba kuna haja ya kuanza kufunga mikanda vilivyo na kuangalia matumizi yetu wakati huo tukiangalia namna ya kupunguza safari zisizo za lazima. Lakini pia ipo haja tena saana ya kuendelea kuing'ang'ania serikali iseme imejiandaa vipi kukabiliana na hali hizi zinazokuja badala ya kusubiri mtindo wa zimamoto?
     
  2. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 8, 2011
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    Greece may be far from East Africa but problems in the European nation are sending shockwaves across Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, reducing the countries' currencies to slices.The Tanzanian currency has slid by 13 per cent against the United States dollar during the past one year. It was being exchanged at an average of Sh1,379 against $1 in July last year but has since dropped to an average exchange rate of Sh1,570.

    The Ugandan shilling has not been spared either. Having dropped to its lowest level against the dollar in a decade, with $1 fetching Ush2,615 earlier this week, it fell further to Ush2,730 on Wednesday this week.
    The depreciation of East African currencies has also been witnessed in Kenya, with the Kenyan shilling trading at Ksh91.45 against the dollar on Tuesday this week up from Monday's Ksh91.25.The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) attributes the situation, which has sent the prices of imported products skyrocketing, to external factors.

    "What you see in the market is a result of high demand for the dollar, as people lose trust in the Euro due to financial problems within the Euro zone," the BoT's economic research and policy director, Dr Joseph Massawe, told The Citizen yesterday.

    Prof Humphrey Moshi of the University of Dar es Salaam's Economic Department shared Dr Massawe's sentiments, noting, however, that the effects were likely to worsen the already spiraling cost of living."It is obvious that since East African Community (EAC) member states are within the Common Market stage of economic integration, and based on the increasing cost of fundamental commodities, we may be equally affected by a single international happening," he warned.

    Dollarisation factor
    He, however, noted that the level of depreciation may differ based on the level of dollarisation of the economies of each country. "And the fact that Tanzania's economy is more dollarised – with people thinking about no other foreign currency than the dollar – it is obvious that we will be more affected than Kenya and Uganda," said Prof Moshi.
    Apparently, his sentiments are supported by the findings of a report by the International Growth Centre, which established recently that the use of dollars is higher in Tanzania than in Kenya. The report entitled ‘Dollarisation in Tanzania: Empirical Evidence and Cross-Country Experience' noted that Foreign currency deposits in Tanzania until December 2009 were about 30 per cent of total bank deposits while Kenya held less than 15 per cent of bank deposits in foreign currencies.
    No speculation
    While in Kenya there are growing concerns that some commercial banks were engaged in speculative behaviour of borrowing their local currency through the Central Bank Rate (CBR) window and using the funds to purchase and keep foreign currency, thereby exerting pressure on it (the Kenyan Shilling), things are not the same in Tanzania.
    "So far we do not have evidence of any speculative behaviour in our market though buying dollars and keeping them is a usual undertaking for commercial banks," said Dr Massawe.
    Banks' interventions
    Just like Kenya, the BoT maintains its position of leaving the market to be determined by market forces even as some analysts would want to see the central bank intervening to help citizens who depend largely on imports to get their daily basic needs.
    "I find no reason why the BoT should not intervene in such a worrying situation….this is what makes some of us believe that there might be some speculative behaviour around….probably, the BoT knows what commercial banks are doing," said Mr Altaf Hirani, the Moil Limited director.
    But Dr Massawe said: "So long as we know the cause, putting our much-needed foreign reserves into the market to help stabilize the shilling will be a waste of resources". Tanzania's gross official reserves remain strong – quoted at $3.74 billion at the end of April 2011. The amount was enough to cover 4.6 months of projected imports of goods and services.
    Apparently, Tanzania's and Kenya's positions are based on the bad experience of Uganda which intervened by injecting $40 million to support the free-falling Ugandan Shilling against the dollar last week, but it was to no avail.
    The solace
    According to Dr Massawe, there is no reason for panic as there is light at the end of the tunnel – with Greece adopting a new austerity plan which was being demanded by international creditors to help the European country out of the economic quagmire.
    He was referring to a plan, adopted by Greek lawmakers yesterday, in which the country intends to slash 28.4 billion euros ($40 billion) from the balance of government spending by 2015, in order to unlock emergency finance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
    "With such steps being taken, I am certain that the euro will soon regain its position in the market and things should soon come to normal," said Dr Massawe.

    Source: East Africa 1st July, 2011.

    Mtazamo: Dr Massawe wa BOT alisema mwanzoni mwa mwezi huu kuwa BOT haita intervene the currency markets. In short Shilling in east africa is in crisis kutokana na factors internally na externally. Lini BOT waligeuka na kuamua kuintervene currency market??? BOT imepoteza credibility na kuwa taasisi ya kisiasa siku hizi (wakiulizwa kwanini shillingi inashuka wanatafuta sababu za kujustify instead of kusema hatua zipi wamechukua kuhakikisha shillingi haiendeleei kushuka).

    What worries the most ni tabia ya viongozi kutokujali na kufidia budget deficit na mikopo. Ulichokisema kupunguza matumizi (austerity) sifikirii watakiona viongozi wetu hawa hasa ukichukulia kila mmoja anataka kuwa bilionea. Ni vema kuaandaliwe maandamano ya kuishinikiza serikali hii kiziwi kusikiliza venginevyo hali itakuwa mbaya baadae.
     
  3. Anfaal

    Anfaal JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 8, 2011
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    Hivi hapo unapoiona unadhani hakuna intervention? Tuulize tuliopo sokoni, hali ingekuwa mbaya zaidi. Sema wanaintervene huku wanaogopa depletion ya foreign currency reserves. Wameintervene mara mbili au tatu lakini hali si shwari bado ingawa ni better kulinganisha na Uganda na future trend ya Kenya kutokana na ukame. Kwa kiasi fulani hali hii mbaya ni zaidi ya internal policies. Ipo nje ya uwezo wao kwa sasa. Labda wanasiasa wawahimize wananchi wazalishe, watengeneze miundombinu ya kuhakikisha matumizi ya foreign currency yanapungua. Kumbuka kwa Tanzania hii ni miezi ya mavuno na hali iko hivyo. Tutazungumza mengi saana ifikapo December hapa.
     
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