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INFLATION Tanzania haizuiliki...!!

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by leroy, Jun 6, 2012.

  1. leroy

    leroy JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Jun 6, 2012
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    WANA JAMVI, Asalaam aleykum.



    • Katika nchi zote duniani jukumu la kuteremsha chini mfumuko wa bei (Inflation) upo chini ya Benki kuu za nchi husika.
    • Benki kuu huteremsha chini mfumuko wa bei kwa kurekebisha ujazo wa fedha kwenye mzunguko na riba ili kuathiri Mahitaji/matumizi ya Jumla (Aggregate Demand/spending).
    • Mfumuko wa bei Tanzania haupo katika demand bali uzalishaji (Supply) kwa sababu ya makwazokwazo yanayoathiri uzalishaji.
    • Hii inathibiitika kupitia kupanda kwa bei ya chakula kutokana na uzalishaji mdogo na mfumuko mwingine wa bei kutokana na bidhaa zinazoagizwa toka nje.
    • Hapo pekundu, ndipo panapolimit uwezo wa Benki kuu kuzuia na kuuteremsha mfumuko wa bei kwa kuwa ni upande wa pili wa sarafu (supply) ambao Benki kuu hupata shida kuuathiri na matokeo kupatikana katika kipindi kifupi.
    • Hii ina maanisha kuwa, juhudi za serikali kushusha mfumuko wa bei kupitia fiscal policies hazitaleta mafanikio katika kipindi cha muda mfupi bali muda wa kati na muda mrefu ujao.

    NB: Kama una maono ya kiuchumi kutatua tatizo tofauti na haya tujuze kwa manufaa ya Taifa letu.

    Nawasilisha.
     
  2. dudus

    dudus JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 6, 2012
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    Kauli za walioshindwa. Piga panga anasa na starehe zote serikalini kama nchi haijapaa kiuchumi wala huhitaji mnajimu wala mganga kutoa utabiri hapa.
     
  3. Mziba

    Mziba JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 7, 2012
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    Waalikumusalaam. Ok, kulingana na maelezo yako, vitu viwili vinapunguza au kuziwia uwezo wa Benki kuu (Central Bank) kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei. 1. Bei ya chakula (production) na Bidha zinazoagiza toka nje (Import).

    Kuhusu 1. bei ya chakula: Benki inaweza kuwapatishia mikopo wakulima, hii itaongeza uzalishaji (it will produce a shock in a supply function). Serikali wakati huo huo, inaweza kushusha tariff katika mbolea, bembejeo na teknolojia za ukulima as a fiscal policy. Sisi hatujui lakini banki kuu inajua asilimia gani ya mikopo ilienda kwa wakulima mwaka jana na Juzi. Kwa hiyo, kwa sababu benki kuu ndio inayokopa hizi benki zingine, ina zana nyingi katika mkoba za kushawishi bnki zingine kuona manufaa ya kukopesha wakulima. Yani kwa mfano, Benki kuu inaweza kutoa discount rate kwa benki zinazokopesha wakulima.

    Kuhusu 2. Bidhaa zinazoagizwa kutoka nje: Serikali ifanye marudio ya trade policy kwa sababu hili linasababishwa na exchange rate. Pia Benki zikopeshe watanzania wafunguwe viwanda hapa hapa bongo. Bidhaa nyingi zinazotaka nje zinaweza kuzalishwa hapa. Yani huko zinakotoka zinatengenezwa na viwanda vidogo vidogo.

    kwa kumalizia, Ingawa umeandika kua hii ni Cost pull inflation, nadhani kuna vipengele kua hii ikawa ni demand pull inflation, ukingazingatia pointi aliyoandika Dudus. Na ndio maana unaona increase in imports.

    Raha ya kuchambua haya mambo ni kua na Data unaziona.
     
  4. Ndachuwa

    Ndachuwa JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 7, 2012
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    What are policy makers (Government and BoT) doing to make our shilling stable?

    1. "If a factor increases the demand for domestic goods relatively to foreign goods, the domestic currency will appreciate; if a factor decreases the relative demand for domestic goods, the domestic currency will depreciate". Is there any positive initiative being done such as AGOA and like? What Ministry of Trade doing to address this?

    2. "In the long run, a rise in a Country's price level (relatively to the foreign price level) causes its currency to depreciate, and a fall in the country's relative price level causes its currency to appreciate". What is government doing to reduce rocketing of food prices?

    3. "Increasing trade barriers causes a country's currency to appreciate in the long run" Do we really need to continue importing sub-standard goods from china such as plastic shoes, artificial flowers, low quality electrical goods? What is the role of Ministry of Industry and SIDO in supporting small scale industries such as for shoes?

    4. "Increased demand for a country's exports causes its currency to appreciate in the long run; conversely, increased demand of imports causes the domestic currency to depreciate".When our leaders will show the way for example wearing suits made from Sungflag produce? Or Stocking their refirgerators with Dodoma wine instead of South Africa wine?

    5."In the long run, as the country becomes more productive relative to other countries, its currency appreciates". Has anybody linked the depreciation of our shilling to the effect of factories closed after being privatised?

    Source:Mishkin & Eakins, 7e
    http://www.jamiiforums.com/business-and-economic-forum/219114-depreciation-of-tanzania-shilling-are-policy-makers-still-asleep.html
     
  5. Tutafika

    Tutafika JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 7, 2012
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    Huyu aliweza ana nini na huyu ashindwe ana nini!, Kwa kifupi kama ambavyo ''Cost Push Inflation" husababishwa na matatizo ya muda mrefu kama vile tatizo la Umeme, hivyo hivyo haitatuliwi katika muda mfupi! BOT wao ndio washauri wakuu wa serikali katika sera za uchumi, hawakwepi uhusika!

    http://www.jamiiforums.com/business-and-economic-forum/268223-mkapa-na-inflation.html
     
  6. leroy

    leroy JF-Expert Member

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    Hapo pekundu ni Expansionary Monetary Policy ambayo kiuchumi itasababisha mfumuko wa bei zaidi.
     
  7. leroy

    leroy JF-Expert Member

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    Hapo pekundu, anasa na starehe za serikali zinaonekana vipi katika CPI...? Tujuze hili.
     
  8. leroy

    leroy JF-Expert Member

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    Uhusiano kati ya depreciation ya shilingi na mfumuko wa bei ni INDIRECT. depreciation husababisha mfumuko wa bei kupitia bidhaa zinazoagizwa nje pekee. Swali: JE CHAKULA KINAAGIZWA NJE?
     
  9. Mziba

    Mziba JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 7, 2012
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    Hiyo ndio moja ya dawa ya kuleta uzalishaji. Saidia viwanda virudi kazini . Kumbuka, umeandika kua hii inflation ni ya supply (cost pull inflation) na sio demand (demand pull inflation).

    Expansionary Monerary Policy, husababisha demand pull inflation. Kwa maana hiyo italeta usawa (balance) na kutengeneza equalibrium kati ya mahitaji kitaifa na ugavi kitaifa.

    Madhali unagaili monetary policy basi hii itakua ni Demand pull inflation na ndio maana watu wanatanua na wauzaji vitu wanaona bora kuongeza bei.

    Pia vilevile, Benki kuu inaweza kurahisisha mikopo kwenye secta ya kilimo tu, ili kupunguza mshindo wa monetary policy.
     
  10. Mziba

    Mziba JF-Expert Member

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    Anasa na Starehe zinaonekana kwenye CPI kwa namna mbili: 1. ununuzi wa vinyaji na chakula 2. Huoneka upanda wa huduma. Ila Dudus inabidi afunguke, kwani ameleta pointi nzuri tu. Kitu kingine napenda kukumbusha ni kwamba Anasa na Starehe ni dalili ya mfumko wa bei unaohusiana na Mahitaji (Demand pull Inflation) tofauti na theory tunayoifikiria ya supply (cost pull inflation)
     
  11. Mziba

    Mziba JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 16, 2012
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    leroy, ukiangalia ukuaji wa bajeti toka 06/07 hadi 12/13 (ok), huu mfumko wa bei upo katika demand pull inflation na sio supply. Ugavi wa fedha bila kua na uzalishaji sambamba huleta inflation.
     
  12. r

    rodrick alexander JF-Expert Member

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    Jun 17, 2012
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    Mfumko wa bei kwa hapa kwetu unasababishwa hasa na vitu viwili bei ya chakula na bei ya mafuta serikali ikiamua ni rahisi ila kosa inalofanya ni kuachia kila kitu kwa watu binafsi serikali ilitakiwa iwe mnunuaji mkubwa wa chakula kwa bei nzuri halafu chakula hicho ikauza kwa wananchi kwa bei nafuu.

    Tujiulize kwanini bei ya chakula imekuwa juu kwanza tumezungukwa na nchi ambazo zina matatizo makubwa ya njaana pia baadhi ya wafanyabiashara, hasa kutoka kenya wamekuwa wakinunua chakula kwa wingi ili wakiuze Sudan kusini. Kutokana na serikali kutonunua chakula cha kutosha toka kwa wakulima wafanyabiashara wamekuwa wakinunua na kuhifadhi ili baada wakiuze kwa bei kubwa.

    Katika hii bajeti nilimsikia waziri wa fedha akitangaza kutoa vibali ili watu waingize chakula kupunguza mfumuko wa bei, kauli yake ilinifanya niamini uwezo wa kufikiri viongozi wetu umefikia kikomo kwani Ifakara kuna kaburu anayelima mchele lakini bei anayouza kwa mtu wa kawaida huwezi kununua. sana sana anauza nje ya nchi... sasa kama kuna mtu anatoka nje ya nchi analima kwa ajili ya watu wa nje ya nchi leo hii utategemeaje tujitosheleze kwa chakula?

    Serikali inabidi imwezeshe mkulima wa kawaida kwa kumpatia zana za kisasa ,mbolea ya ruzuku na mwisho imuakikishie soko kwa yenyewe kuwa mnunuzi mkuu wa mazao yake. Pia kuna mtindo ambao umeanza sasa wa kutoa ardhi ambayo badala ya kuzalisha chakula inazalisha mazao ya chakula hii ni hatari sana; kwani baadae tutakosa ardhi ua uzalishaji chakula. Ukodishaji wa ardhi kwa wageni ambao wakishalima tusitegemee kuwa watatuuzia mazao kwani njaa ni tatizo la dunia nzima. Gharama za usafirishaji kuwa juu kutokana na kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta.

    Hapo kwenye biashara ya mafuta kuna usanii wa hali ya juu na hii ni kutokana na viongozi wa serikali kujihusisha na biashara hiyo haiingii akilini mafuta yapitie kwetu lakini yauzwe kwa bei nafuu nchi jirani lakini tulikuwa na tipper ambayo ilihusika na kusafisha mafuta ghafi hii ilisaidia kupata mafuta kwa bei nafuukwani bei ya mafuta ghafi ni ndogo kwenye soko la dunia inabidi kurudia kusafisha mafuta ili kuokoa na pesa zetu za kigeni.
     
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