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Hela ya Tanzania yazidi kuporomoka!

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Lole Gwakisa, Dec 18, 2008.

  1. Lole Gwakisa

    Lole Gwakisa JF-Expert Member

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    Dec 18, 2008
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    INFLATION RISES TO 12.3% IN NOVEMBER-Daily News(18/12/2008)

    Wajameni hela ya Tanzania yaanza kurudi kwenye madafu.Exhange rate ya sik za karibuni zinaonyesha kuwa dola moja sasa inauzwa kwa Tshs zaidi ya 1300/=.
    Wachumi na wazalendo mliobobea katika mambo ya fedha, kunani na hali inaelekea wapi?
    Jambo dhahiri linalotokea sasa ni kuwa imports zote zitakuwa ghali kulinganisha na miezi sita iliyopita.
     
  2. Njowepo

    Njowepo JF-Expert Member

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    Sio 1300 tuu mpka 1350 kwenye mabenki mengine DSM.
    Tunakwenda wapi?
    Bei ya mafuta soko la dunia imepungua almost halfway sisi bado hazireflect ilo punguzo.
     
  3. m

    mmaroroi JF-Expert Member

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    Inawezekana Mafisadi yameficha fedha nyumbani na wanaingiza sokoni kinyemala.Dawa ni kubadilisha fedha kuondoa hali hiyo ya kushuka dhamani ya fedha zetu,mfumuko wa bei na kuondoa sahihi za mafisadi kwenye fedha zetu.
     
  4. KiuyaJibu

    KiuyaJibu JF-Expert Member

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    Hapa vitu vya kufanya ni kuongeza export ya mali kutoka TZ kwenda nje ya nchi,kuwabana wawekezaji waliopo hapa TZ wawe na akaunti za kuendeshea biashara za katika mabenki yaliopo hapa nchini,kuzuia upelekaji fedha nje pasipo sababu za msingi kiuchumi/kibiashara;yaani kuzuia makusudi watu wasifiche fedha katika benki za nje ya nchi.
    Serikali kwa makusudi kabisa ikianza na haya niliyoainisha hapa kuna kila sababu ya Tsh..kutengamaa.
     
  5. M

    MgonjwaUkimwi JF-Expert Member

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    Kutokana na hali mbaya na uchumi wa dunia tutegemee kwamba shilingi yetu itateremka zaidi na kutakuwa na inflation ya juu (given the current level of production) hadi hapo shughuli za uchumi wetu zitakapojirekebisha sambamba na ule wa dunia.

    Kwa nchi masikini kama Tanzania inayotegemea agricultural exports kwa kiasi kikubwa huku ikitumia pato dogo la exports ili ku-import vitu muhimu kama mafuta, vipuri na pembejeo, uchumi wa dunia unapoyumba unasababisha ongezeko la ghafla la mahitaji ya fedha za kigeni kwa Tz. Kwa mantiki kwamba watanzania sasa wanahitaji US$ ili kuingiza bidhaa adimu kama mafuta, na wapo tayari kuinunua US$ kwa bei mbaya. Wanapofanya hivyo wanaitosa shilingi yao na kuigeuza madafu.

    Sambamba na matokeo ya kuyumba kwa uchumi, wabongo walio na ela nyingi wanaofuatilia nyendo za uchumi wa dunia wanaanza kuhamisha fedha zao kutoka kwenye shilingi kwenda kwenye dola, mana wanajuwa huu ni wakati wa kuwa na akiba kwenye ela ambayo haiyumbi sana kufuata mawimbi ya uchumi wa dunia. Wanapofanya hivi shilingi yetu inakuwa si mali, na kwakuwa kuna shilingi nyingi mitaani bila uwiano na uzalishaji, inflation inajitokeza na kuongeza balaa.

    Kana kwamba bado haijatosha, Tz na nchi nyingine masikini tunapigwa na laana pale uchumi wa dunia unapoyumba na kusababisha punguzo la mahitaji ya bidhaa zetu katika soko la dunia na kupungua kwa watalii. Kwa maana hii hata zile dola tulizokuwa tunazisaka zinakuwa adimu, na hii ndio mbaya mno mana kila mwenye dola atajipangia bei anayotaka kuiuza na hivyo kuangamiza shilingi yetu. Hazina wakikaukiwa sana na dola nayo sio mzuri kwani kunakuwa na vishawishi vya kufanya devaluation (kushusha thamani ya shilingi dhidi ya dola na fedha nyingine) ili kuvutia exports zetu katika soko la dunia. Hii ikitokea....? Mungu epushia mbali.

    Tatizo jingine linalochangia ni letu wenyewe. Watanzania tangu tulipoubwaga ujamaa na kuuvamia ubepari tumeitupa shilingi yetu na kuitukuza dola. Badala ya kuifanya shilingi itawale shughuli zetu za uchumi sasa bei za vitu zinapangwa katika dola, watu wanaongelea dola zaidi kuliko shilingi yetu. Matokeo yake ni kwamba tumekuwa na demand ya US$ ambayo haiwiani na mahitaji halisi ya US$. Wanafunzi wanataka akiba zao za benki ziwe in US$, mama lishe,. wafanyakazi wa mbugani na hotelini nao wanataka akiba zao ziwe in dola..hata kama wao sio waingizaji wa bidhaa adimu kutoka nje....katika hali hii hatuwezi kujuwa mahitaji halisi ya US$ na badala yake mahitaji ya US$ yanaongezeka kadri miaka inavyokwenda na hivyo kusababisha shilingi kupoteza thamani na hivyo inflation kuchukuwa kiti cha mbele.

    Katika hali ya uchumi wa sasa wa dunia kuna kila dalili kwamba shilingi yetu itaendelea kushuka na inflation itaendelea kutoboa dali.
     
  6. Ben Saanane

    Ben Saanane Verified User

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    Good analysis bro.i have nothing to contribute
     
  7. M

    Mwanjelwa JF-Expert Member

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    Shughuli ipo kwa kweli. Wanasema demand ya dola kwa oli importers. Shughuli kubwa hasa hii. Wasi wasi wangu inaweza kufika sehemu tukashindwa kunywa chai asubuhi
     
  8. Augustine Moshi

    Augustine Moshi JF-Expert Member

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    Mgonjwa wa Ukimwi katoa analysisi mbovu. Kama udhaifu wa uchumi wa dunia ndio unashusha fedha yetu, basi mbona shilingi za Kenya na Uganda zinapanda?

    JK alipokea nchi yenye rate of inflation ya 4.9% per annum, na sasa kaifikisha 12.3%. Ni matokeo ya uongozi mbaya.

    Hata hivyo, kwa upande mmoja ni kwamba tunavuna matunda ya kutokazania Elimu miaka iliyopita. Kenya na Uganda walikazania Elimu (eg in the eighties, Kenya always spent more than 20% of its budget on Education while we spent 5%)

    Matokeo ni kwamba Kenya na Uganda zina wasomi wengi ndani na nje ya nchi. Kenyans living abroad remitted $1.4 bn last year. Ugandans remitted $1.o bn. In contrast Tanzanians remitted a measly $0.014 bn. These things affect the availability of dollars in Dar.
     
  9. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Moshi:

    Kwa maoni yangu analysis ya Mgonjwa wa Ukimwi ni sahihi.

    Kuna factors nyingi za kufanya inflation kuwa kubwa na dollar kupanda bei na factors hizo zinaweza kuwa nje kabisa na masuala ya uongozi.

    Dollar inatumika kama currency ndani ya Tanzania na hii inasababisha demand ya dollar kuwa kubwa na kushuka kwa thamani ya Shillings.

    Vilevile Tanzania inaagiza bidhaa nyingi kutoka nje ambazo zinahitaji matumizi ya dollar.

    Sababu zinazozifanya Kenya na Uganda kuweza ku-stabilize currency zao, ni kutokuwa na demand kubwa ya dollar.

    Private sector nayo inatakiwa kulaumiwa. Bei ya mafuta imechuka sana lakini watumiaji wa Tanzania bado wananunua kwa bei hilehile ya mwanzo. Na hii inachangia kwa inflation kuwa kubwa.

    Hilo suala la Wakenya na waganda waliopo nje kutuma pesa nyumbani lisikusumbue sana. Lina uzuri na ubaya. Ubaya wake ni kuwa assett katika prime locations zitakuwa na bei mbaya sana kwa waliobaki nyumbani.
     
  10. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

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    Watalii wengi kutoka US, UK na nchi nyingine za magharibi waliopanga kuja Bongo 2009 wengi wao wamefuta safari zao kutokana na kuyumba kwa uchumi wa dunia. Hawa huongeza pato la Taifa la fedha za kigeni kwa hiyo kutokuja kwao kutaathiri shilingi ya Tanzania kwa kuwa demand ya forex (U$) ni kubwa kuliko supply. Pia kuna uwezekano wa sababu nyingine mbali mbali labda BoT watazizungumzia siku za karibuni.
     
  11. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

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    Shilling depreciates against dollar
    DAILY NEWS Reporter and Agencies
    Daily News; Thursday,December 18, 2008 @21:15

    The Tanzania shilling has continued to weaken against the US dollar over the last few weeks, due to what dealers have attributed to increased demand for the US currency. They say that the pressure on the greenback comes from corporate clients, especially oil companies. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 1,300/1,310 to the dollar, yesterday compared with 1,280/1,290 a week earlier.

    Dealers said they expected the shilling to trade in the 1,280-1,310 range against the dollar in coming days. "There is still big demand from the oil sector and little supply," said Hakim Sheikh, a dealer at Commercial Bank of Africa Tanzania. "There are no dollars. We buy most of the time from the Bank of Tanzania and they intervene with very small amounts."

    Dealers said telecoms firms, in addition to oil companies, were also seeking the US currency.
    "We have seen some increased demand from mainly telecommunication companies coming to the markets," said Christopher Makombe, head of trading at Standard Chartered Bank Tanzania.

    Dealers said there was also offshore demand for the dollar over the past week. Meanwhile, the Kenya shilling is forecast to firm further against the dollar in the coming week, helped by low demand for the US currency from corporate clients who are closing for the Christmas break.

    At 1220 GMT, commercial banks quoted the local unit at 77.00/20 to the dollar, compared with last Wednesday's close of 78.10/20. The shilling was seen trading in the 76.50-77.50 range against the dollar in coming days. "Most corporates have already done away with their commitments and because most of them normally close for Christmas ... dollar demand has been suppressed," said Jeremiah Kendagor, head of foreign Exchange at Kenya Commercial Bank.

    "There will be more of the same low demand ... I think the shilling will close on a firm note," he said. The shilling's day-to-day movements are boosted by U.S. currency inflows from sectors like tourism, agriculture and remittances from abroad, while dollar demand from areas like manufacturing and energy weaken the local unit.

    In another development, the Uganda shilling is projected to remain firm against the dollar, due to an increase in year-end flows of the US currency and waning demand, dealers said.
    Commercial banks in Kampala posted the local unit at 1,955/1,965 to the dollar, compared with last Wednesday's rate of 1,960/1,970. Dealers said they expected it to trade in the 1,950-1,980 range over the coming days.

    "We have seen some year-end inflows coming in from the non-governmental organisations and Ugandans living abroad," said Denis Mushabe Mashanyu, a dealer at Standard Chartered Bank Uganda. Dealers said the shilling had been resurgent against the dollar in the past few days as demand for the US currency waned ahead of the Christmas holiday season. The Central Bank offered 65 billion shillings at Wednesday's Treasury bill auction. Last week the Central Bank rejected all bids for the 50 billion shilling two-year treasury bond.
     
  12. Augustine Moshi

    Augustine Moshi JF-Expert Member

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    Zakumi: Unaposema fedha yetu inashuka "kwa sababu demand ya dola ni kubwa" na kwamba hilo halihusiani na uongozi unakosea. Ni uongozi mbaya ndio unafanya tutumie dola nyingi kuliko tunavyoingiza.

    Ni uongozi mbaya ndio unamaliza fedha nyingi za kigeni kwa safari za nje za mara kwa mara, na ambazo hazina faida kwetu. Ni uongozi mbaya ndio una matanuzi mazito (ya magari ya kifahari etc) ambayo yanamaliza fedha nyingi za kigeni.

    Ni uongozi mbaya umeharibu uchumi wa nchi, na kwa njia hiyo kufanya fedha yetu ishuke.

    Ni uongozi mbaya umefanya miudombinu yetu iwe mibaya na kwa njia hiyo kutukosesha watalii. Kwa nini Kenya wapate watalii milioni 2 kwa mwaka wakati sisi tunapata laki 8 tu, na tuna vivutio kuliko wao? Ni uongozi mbaya wa sekta ya utalii.
     
  13. Kuhani

    Kuhani JF-Expert Member

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    Augustine Moshi na yeye katoa analysis mbovu.

    Tunaongelea kushuka kwa thamani ya shillingi, ambako mara nyingi kunatokana na demand ndogo, yeye solution yake eti ni kumwaga madola zaidi kwenye marketplace kutoka kwa wananchi walioko nje! Ili iweje, uzidi kupunguza demand ya shilingi ? Muono mbovu!

    Nyingine, approach nyingine mbovu, anasema tusomeshe watu ili waende kufanya kazi nje ya nchi walete hela! Sio wabaki kujenga nchi na kuinua uchumi, hapana, ila waende utumwani kuchuma hela za kutuma nyumbani, you know, dola mia hapa, paundi mia mbili pale, ambazo haziwezi kutumika kujenga economic infrastructures za maana na za kudumu kama vile employment, bali ni hela za kula tu tunawatumia Mama zetu kila weekend! Approach mbovu!

    Halafu kumlaumu Kikwete kwa mfumuko wa bei inawezekana kukawa ni muono wa juu juu mno. Inflationary pressures zimekuwa zikikinza dunia nzima, haswa bei za vyakula na mafuta (kabla bei ya pipa haijaporomoka majuzi ) na sio sana kwa sababu ya lolote alilofanya au kutokufanya Kikwete. Isitoshe, hiyo inflation rate ya around 4% ni Mkapa mwenyewe alikuwa anaiimba. Ukweli hatuujui. Kikwete nae anasema ameshusha inflation pia vile vile. Hawa watu huwa ni waongo. Juzi kuna waziri kasema eti employment kwa vijana imeongezeka halafu hakusema statistics zake zimetafitiwa na nani. Hatujui ukweli, but, suffice is to say, inflationary pressures were widespread the world over in recent global economic downturn.
     
  14. Lole Gwakisa

    Lole Gwakisa JF-Expert Member

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    B.A. Kusema , naona approach yako inaleta facts to life na je inaelekea hii slide ya Tsh ni kutokana na a sudden demand for funding of imports kama BOT wanavoona?
    Na je inflation mbona inazidi kupanda(kumbuka kuna kupindi inflation ilikuwa chini ya 5%)
    Je matumizi ya Serikali ndo yanasababisha hiyo inflation?
    Maswali ni mengi wadau.
     
  15. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Moshi:

    Sasa unakuwa typical mwanasiasa. Safari za rais, pamoja na kuwa zinatumia dollar hazifanyi demand ya dollar kuwa kubwa. Na kama zinafanya ni lazima tuache ku-exist kama taifa. Na kama ni safari za nje, ni Nyerere na Mwinyi waliokuwa sio wasafiri.

    Kinachozungumzwa ni demand ya dollar kwa matumizi ya biashara.

    Kuhusu viongozi kutumia magari ya fahari nakubaliana na wewe kimsingi. Lakini hii sio tabia iliyozuka juzi. Ina zaidi ya miaka 20.

    Kuhusu sekta ya utalii sioni kwanini unapiga kelele. Sekta ya utalii Kenya ilianza kuendeshwa 1961. Hivyo expartise waliyonayo ni kubwa sana kuliko Tanzania ambayo imeanza 1990s.

    Hivyo kwenye utalii Kenya ina Customer base kubwa kuliko Tanzania. Customers siku zote wanarudi huduma nzuri walizopata na vilevile kuwaambia wenzao. Hivyo katika kipindi cha miaka 50 wamefanya mambo mengi.
     
  16. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Kuna uwezekano wa matumizi ya serikali kusababisha inflation. Serikali ya Tanzania ni mtoa ajira mkubwa.

    Kwa sababu nchi yetu inategemea mapato ya madini, misaada kutoka nje, ushuru wa wafanyabiashara na utalii, njia kubwa kugawana utajiri (distribution of wealth) ni kuongeza matumizi ya serikali. Serikali itajenga mashule, hospitali, mabarabara na kuajiri watu. Watu hawa watalipwa mishahara ambayo wataitumia kuongeza demand ya vitu na kuongeza bei.

    Kipindi ambacho inflation ilikuwa chini ya 5%, serikali ilipunguza wafanyakazi. Iliacha kutoa ajira (shule zilikuwa na waalimu wawili). Na matumizi mengi yalisimamishwa.

    Kipindi hiki bei ya vitu ilikuwa chini kwa sababu wengi hawakuwa na uwezo wa kununua kutokana na matatizo ya ajira.
     
  17. M

    Mwanjelwa JF-Expert Member

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    Nadhani kama huna points, ni bora kusoma zingine. Huwezi andika chochote kwenye hii forum. NI lazima ujue unachoandika
     
  18. C

    Chuma JF-Expert Member

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    Kuna tetesi BOT kutoa NOTI ya Laki Moja...wadau kuna mtu anafact zake...? naona tumekwama...!!!!

    Nilibahatika kumuuliza Kijana wa Wizara ya Fedha hapa DSM lkn hakunipa majibu yanayoridhisha..yeye anadai...Kipindi hiki..yaani kuanzia late OCT-Dec-Jan rate ya dola na shilingi inakuwa hivyo kama ilivyosasa...kwa wanaokumbuka even last year ilikuwa hivyo....japo sikuridhika na majibu hayo....kama kuna mtu ana experience ya haya anaweza sema...
     
  19. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    ............dat true
     
  20. Waberoya

    Waberoya JF-Expert Member

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    Dec 20, 2008
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    Tusifikie hapo ndugu hoja kwa hoja, Zakumi kaeleza point zake kwa mtazamo mwingine, is better to see things in three dimension, ulichotakiwa kumuuliza ni afafanue point yake ya 'prime asset' tunajengana hapa, tusitengeneze layer itakayozuia tusielewe mambo mapya kwa sababu ya mitazamo yetu tuliyonayo.

    Ishu hii ni kuijadili kwa mapana na marefu

    Augustine moshi kaelezea kwa mapana sana swala la elimu, tusipong'ang'ania hapa, tusitegemee muujiza hata kidogo, kama tutafanikiwa kuwa na viwanda vyetu fedha ikazunguka ndani ya nchi, kwa asilimia kubwa tungekuwa kwenye afadhali.

    waberoya
     
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