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FACTBOX-Political risks to watch in Tanzania

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by nngu007, Jul 13, 2012.

  1. nngu007

    nngu007 JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 13, 2012
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    Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:25am GMT


    By Fumbuka Ng'wanakilala


    DAR ES SALAAM, July 11 (Reuters) - A standoff in Tanzania between the government and doctors over pay and working conditions could spread to other public workers as high costs of living stoke social tensions in east Africa's second-biggest economy.

    TORTURE INVESTIGATION
    Doctors announced their latest round of strikes last month after talks with the government over higher pay failed.

    Steven Ulimboka, chairman of the Medical Association of Tanzania and co-ordinator of the strikes, said he was seized at gunpoint in late June and taken to a forest where he said he was tortured.


    President Jakaya Kikwete denied any government involvement and ordered an investigation into the incident.


    What to watch:

    - Pay stalemate. Public hospital doctors stepped up their strike after the kidnap and torture allegations. The government has threatened to sack anyone who refused to return to work.

    - Public-sector anger. Discontent has risen among teachers, nurses, police and other lowly paid public workers. Will they join the doctors?


    - Opposition leaders, unions and non-governmental organisations have repeatedly threatened nationwide demonstrations to push for political and economic reforms.


    - Resurgent opposition. The opposition CHADEMA party, which is popular with young people, has been holding well-attended public rallies across the country to build grassroots support for its campaign for change.


    PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION, ZANZIBAR

    Jostling for the party leadership of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party ahead of the end of Kikwete's second term in office in 2015 has risen, leading to a string of defections to CHADEMA.

    Opposition lawmakers say the constitution, adopted in 1977 under one-party rule, favours the ruling party. Kikwete has pledged to have a new constitution in place in 2014.


    He will keep facing pressure from the opposition to curb corruption and to improve management of the country's natural resources including gold.


    The Zanzibar archipelago, which is a popular tourist destination, has experienced rising Islamist militancy over the past two years.


    Hundreds of supporters of a separatist Islamist group, Uamsho (Awakening), set fire to churches and bars and clashed with police in May, demanding an end to the union with mainland Tanzania and calling for strict observance of Islamic law on the island.


    What to watch:

    - Unrest. Officials have vowed to crack down on the separatists. Will Uamsho drop demands to end the union with the mainland?

    - Parliamentary revolt. Backbenchers from CCM and opposition parties have agreed to work together on issues of national interest. Will they back budget estimates of some ministries for the 2012/13 financial year?


    - Defections. There have been suggestions that some senior CCM politicians could join CHADEMA ahead of the ruling party's national leadership elections this year.


    - Corruption. Will more cases be uncovered?


    THE ECONOMY

    The high cost of living and rising youth unemployment are potential causes of unrest and have stoked anti-government sentiments.

    The government cut its 2012 economic growth forecast to 6.8 percent from an earlier estimate of 7 percent. Growth in the economy - east Africa's second biggest after Kenya - slowed to 6.4 percent in 2011 from 7.0 percent in 2010.


    The year-on-year inflation rate eased marginally to 18.2 percent in May from 18.7 percent in April, meaning prices were still high, squeezing the poor hard.


    What to watch:

    - Monetary policy. The central bank is expected to continue tightening its monetary policy in 2012/13 to curb inflation and bring it down to single-digit levels.

    - Gas discoveries. With major new discoveries announced by Norway's Statoil and Africa-focused oil and gas firm Ophir Energy Plc and its partner BG Group, how will officials manage gas revenues?


    - Regulations. The government expects to unveil a new masterplan and laws this year to regulate the fast-growing industry. What new regulations will the government introduce?


    - Taxes. Mining firms are worried about government plans to raise their taxes.

    African Barrick Gold agreed to increase royalty payments to the country by 1 percent following negotiations with the government. Will AngloGold Ashanti and other mining companies follow suit? (Editing by Duncan Miriri and Pravin Char)



    © Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved


     
  2. Mvaa Tai

    Mvaa Tai JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 13, 2012
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    Za lugha hii zinakuwaga na wachingiaji wachache sana nahisi inazungumzia Mambo ya Madaktari maana nimeona sehemu kuna jina la Dr Ulimboka
     
  3. s

    schlumberger JF-Expert Member

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    Jul 13, 2012
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    Well said. But tanzania is for tanzanians. We well know how our political system works. We well know how to easy tensions whenever they arise.

    To sum up all. No fear at all. Tanzania will still be a peacefully country. Any outside attempts to disunify us will fail god willing. No any new gov't comes to power will make life change abruptly. We know where we come from, where we are and where we are heading to!
     
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