Deni la Taifa: Nani atalilipa?

Nimesoma ripoti ya CCM inayobainisha mafanikio ya Serikali ya Mkapa (1995 - 2005) nimekuta mambo mengi sana ya kujivunia. Isipokuwa ripoti hii imenizidishia maswali zaidi ya majibu....swali mpja kuu ni kuwa kwa nini bado bajeti yeti inategemea wafadhali kwa 50%..!!???

Hizi ni baadhi ya yaliyomo kwenye ripoti nzima inayopatikana hapa: http://www.ccmlondonuk.org/iyu.html

8. Mafanikio hayo ni kama yafuatavyo:-

(a) Mafanikio Katika Uchumi
(i) Pato la Taifa limeongezeka kutoka Dola (za Kimarekani) 5.6 bilioni mwaka 1995 hadi Dola 9.8 bilioni mwaka 2004 likiwa ni ongezeko la asilimia 75.
(ii) Pato la kila mtu limeongezeka kutoka Dola 160 mwaka 1995 hadi Dola 260 mwaka 2004 likiwa ni ongezeko la asilimia 62.5.
(iii) Ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa umeongezeka kutoka asilimia 3.6 mwaka 1995 hadi asilimia 6.7 mwaka 2004.
(iv) Mfumuko wa bei umeshuka kutoka asilimia 27.1 mwaka 1995 hadi asilimia 4.2 mwaka 2004.
(v) Asilimia ya Watanzania wanaoishi kwa kipato cha chini ya Dola moja ilishuka kutoka 50 mwaka 1995 hadi 20 mwaka 2004.
(vi) Utekelezaji wa Sera ya Ubinafsishaji wa Mashirika ya Umma umeweza kuiondolea Serikali mzigo mzito wa kuendesha uchumi moja kwa moja. Ubinafsishaji umeanza kujenga mazingira ya ongezeko la tija na ufanisi katika uzalishaji wa bidhaa za viwandani. Baada ya kubinafsishwa makampuni na mashirika hayo sasa yanaipatia Serikali mapato makubwa badala ya kuendeshwa kwa ruzuku ya Serikali.
(vii) Mauzo ya nje ya bidhaa yameongezeka kutoka thamani ya Dola 682.9 milioni mwaka 1995 hadi Dola 1,165.9 milioni mwaka 2004, likiwa ni ongezeko la asilimia 70.7
(viii) Akiba ya fedha za kigeni kwa ajili ya kuagizia bidhaa kutoka nje imeongezeka kutoka uwezo wa kukidhi mahitaji ya mwezi 1.6 mwaka 1995 hadi mahitaji ya miezi 9 mwaka 2004.



(ix) Ruzuku ya Serikali Kuu kwa Serikali za Mitaa ambazo ni chombo cha wananchi wenyewe cha kusimamia maendeleo yao kule kule waliko, imeongezeka kutoka Shilingi 12.3 bilioni mwaka 1995/96 hadi shilingi 392.2 bilioni mwaka 2004/05. Hili ni ongezeko la asilimia 3,088.6(yaani zaidi ya mara 30).
(x) Kutokana na mafanikio ya utekelezaji wa mikakati ya kuweka mazingira mazuri ya kuvutia vitega uchumi na kupambana na rushwa, hivi sasa Tanzania ni miongoni mwa nchi zinazoongoza katika Afrika katika kuvutia uwekezaji. Mwaka 2004 Tanzania ilipata tuzo ya kuwa nchi ya kwanza Afrika kwa uwekaji wa mazingira mazuri ya uwekezaji. Uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja wa mitaji kutoka nje umeongezeka kutoka Dola 50.2 milioni mwaka 1995 hadi Dola 247.8 milioni mwaka 2004 sawa na ongezeko la asilimia 394.
(xi) Kutokana na mafanikio ya utekelezaji wa mikakati ya kupambana na rushwa na kuziba mianya ya ukwepaji wa kulipa kodi pamoja na zoezi la ubinafsishaji wa mashirika ya umma, hatua ambayo imeboresha uzalishaji, makusanyo ya mapato ya Serikali yameongezeka kutoka wastani wa shs. 25 bilioni kwa mwezi, mwaka 1995 hadi wastani wa sh. 160 bilioni kwa mwezi, mwaka 2005. Hili ni ongezeko la asilimia 540.
(xii) Tanzania ilitimiza masharti ya Mpango wa Kuzifutia Madeni Nchi Zenye Madeni Makubwa (HIPC) na hivyo kuingizwa katika Mpango huo mwaka 1999. Kutokana na hali hiyo, kuanzia mwaka 2002/2003 hadi 2004/2005, Tanzania ilitekeleza Mkakati wa Kupunguza Umaskini (MKU) ambapo fedha ambazo zingetumika kulipia madeni ya nje yaliyofutwa, sasa zilielekezwa katika sekta teule za huduma za jamii na kiuchumi na miundombinu zinazowagusa moja kwa moja wananchi wa kawaida kwa manufaa ya pamoja. Sekta hizo ni elimu, afya, maji, barabara za vijijini, kilimo na utawala bora, hususan Mahakama.

(xiii) Kutokana na juhudi za makusudi za kuimarisha utalii kwa lengo la kuchangia katika ukuaji wa uchumi na kuongeza ajira, idadi ya watalii walioingia nchini imeongezeka kutoka watalii 295,000 mwaka 1995 hadi 582,000 mwaka 2004. Hili ni ongezeko la asilimia 97.3 Aidha, mapato yatokanayo na utalii nayo yameongezeka kutoka Dola 259 milioni mwaka 1995 hadi Dola 746 milioni mwaka 2004, likiwa ni ongezeko la asilimia 188.0. Nafasi za ajira kwenye Sekta ya Utalii zimeongezeka kutoka 96,000 hadi 160,750 swa na ongezeko la asilimia 67.4.
(xiv) Kutokana na utekelezaji wa sera za makusudi za kuvutia wawekezaji wakubwa na teknolojia ya kisasa katika uchimbaji wa madini, hasa dhahabu, imefunguliwa migodi mikubwa Nzega, Geita, Kahama, Mara n.k. Kutokana na maendeleo hayo, uuzaji wa madini umeongezeka kwa kiasi kikubwa kutoka thamani ya Sh. 452.0 milioni mwaka 1995 hadi Sh. 22,786.0 milioni mwaka 2004 likiwa ni ongezeko la asilimia 4,941.

(xv) Kutokana na utulivu wa mazingira ya kisiasa na kiuchumi, biashara imechangamka nchini. Mchango wa Sekta ya Biashara kwa Pato la Taifa umeongezeka kutoka asilimia 2.4 mwaka 1995 hadi asilimia 16.8 mwaka 2004. Mchango wa Sekta ya Fedha umeongezeka kutoka asilimia 5.9 hadi asilimia 12.1 katika kipindi hicho. Mchango wa Sekta ya Viwanda nao uliongezeka kutoka asilimia 4.5 hadi 8.7. Aidha, mchango wa Sekta ya Madini kwa Pato la Taifa umeongezeka kutoka asilimia 0.1 mwaka 1995 hadi asilimia 3.0 mwaka 2004.
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as long as tukiweka watu kwenye madaraka wanao tambua maana ya fiscal responsibility.............hali ya uchumi wetu itarudi kuwa stable.............
 
Leo nimeisoma habari hii JF napitia Citizen nikakuta habari inayoshabihiana na hii hii; tatizo inaumiza akili pale unapogundua kila mtanzania anadaiwa Tshs 332,000/-

Isome:

SPECIAL REPORT: Tanzania's debt stock to hit Sh2.54 trn by June 2011

Monday, 11 October 2010
By The Citizen Reporter

Until 1997, the Tanzania government had no domestic debt. By 1998 when the country started to borrow domestically, the debt stock was pegged at around Sh6 trillion. It is in this year that Tanzania started to mull the option of borrowing commercially. However, the idea was put off temporarily due to what was cited as unfavourable global situations.

It is from that year that the debt stock started to increase and as of last June, the total debt stood at $9.9 billion. And by last June exchange rate, this amount was equivalent to Sh13.6 trillion. This is the same as saying that as of June 2010, every Tanzanian owed the lenders roughly Sh332,000 in public debt.

If you think that you might be able to settle this debt, just prepare your calculator for some additions. This fiscal year (2010/11) the government plans to borrow Sh2.12 trillion more on commercial terms. This money will be borrowed domestically and from abroad.
According to an analysis done by a non governmental organisation called Uwazi, of this amount, Sh797.62 billion will not be new debt as the government will be selling new treasury securities (bills and bonds) to pay for the redemption of maturing debts. This typically keeps debts at more or less the same level.

The other Sh1.3 trillion will be a new debt which, according to the minister for Finance, will pay for infrastructure development.

With an additional Sh1.21 trillion net borrowing on concessionary* terms (soft loans) the stock of debt is expected to grow by about Sh2.54 trillion or Sh54,300 per Tanzanian by June 2011.

Commercial borrowing

The government efforts to maintain the debt stock has enabled Tanzania to be regarded as a loanable country. This creates a possibility of borrowing on commercial terms. That possibility on the other hand, has opened a new window of opportunity that was unavailable for quite some time.

Without massive debt relief, largely delivered between 2000 and 2007 under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), international commercial loans to Tanzania would have remained a farfetched dream because Tanzania was debt stressed and therefore not a creditworthy borrower.

There was a time in late 1990s when the ratio of external debt to GDP shot up to above 100 per cent and the external debt to exports ratio was well above 500 per cent.

Commercial lenders simply refused to extend credit to Tanzania. Consequently soft loans and grants from bilateral donors and multilateral financial institutions became Tanzania's main source of deficit financing. But there is an argument that the HIPC initiative will not go far enough to relieve the poor country's external debt. The former Finance minister, Mr Basil Mramba, is a witness to this.

He is in record to have told Parliament few years ago that while the programme has provided some relief in its first years, TaDEBT* Înzania debts continued to accumulate. This situation is still the same today as we still witness the bulging of the debt stock.

The Tanzania situation is not different from many other sub-Saharan African countries that qualified for debt relief - a substantial lowering of debt initially, with rising obligations as new money is borrowed to service old debt and to finance new basic development programmes.

There was some signs of improvement immediately after the debt relief started. For instance, after receiving assistance from HIPC, sponsored by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tanzania's external debt fell from $3.8 billion (about Sh5.3 trillion) in mid-1999 to $2.6 billion (about Sh3.6 trillion) in the period of only two years.

Grants instead of loans

In her much discussed book, "Dead Aid: Why aid is not working and how there is a better way for Africa," Dr Dambisa Moyo, suggests on how African countries could get themselves out of what she refers to as debt cycle.

She proposes that poor countries could redeem themselves by borrowing commercially instead of relying on grants and aid. She says poor countries should take charge of own development and through commercial loans, countries will be more responsible.

Of late, Tanzania has opted for borrowing. We witnessed in the last budget, the minister for Finance announced the government's intention to borrow, not only from traditional sources but also commercially.

The idea to borrow commercially was earlier considered in 2007/08, but put aside due to unfavourable conditions in the international financial markets at the time. Now the idea is back with prospects of further increasing the debt stock. So, tax payers get å

Due to the efforts by the government to service its debt, local and foreign, it has reached a point that the country is eligible to borrow more. But should it do so?

Critics are asking if the opportunity for commercial borrowing be embraced. And what are the chances of Tanzania plunging back into another unsustainable debt situation?

Analysis done by Uwazi indicate that current statistics do not indicate Tanzania plunging into an unsustainable debt situation shortly in the future.* Both, debt-GDP and debt-export earnings ratios are at sound levels.

However, Uwazi warns in its brief titled ‘Should Tanzania Borrow Commercially?' that the Government must not lose sight of the fact that each shilling it borrows is a liability Tanzanians will have to bear through more taxes.

Worse still, what burdens more Tanzania is not the principal debts themselves, but the interest. For instance Sh3.7 trillion debt stock as of 2010, only Sh1.5 trillion is principal debt and the bulk of the rest is interest.

Experience show that interest has been growing as the country borrows more and fails to service past debts and the new ones.

There was a time in late 1990s when the ratio of external debt to GDP shot up to above 100 per cent and the external debt to exports ratio was well above 500 per cent. Commercial lenders simply refused to extend credit to Tanzania. Consequently soft loans and grants from bilateral donors and multilateral financial institutions became Tanzania's main source of deficit financing.

This situation of having interest outstripping the principal debt is the result of several initiatives which saw Tanzania qualify for more debts. And the country did not ask itself twice after being granted opportunity to borrow. It borrowed and borrowed and the result is what we see today.

Uwazi stresses that debt sustainability indicators must be kept healthy by sustaining strong growth of exports as well as GDP. In addition, investments made on borrowed money ought to achieve value for money spent and benefit its people equitably.

"If they fail to meet this criterion at planning stage and in the course of implementation, Tanzania is likely to plunge in debt distress again in the future. History has an important lesson to teach here," warns Mr Rakesh Rajani, head of Twaweza, a subsidiary of Uwazi.

A good part of the debt accumulated in the pre-debt relief era was not effectively used, and the benefits to society were skewed to certain groups or localities. The significant infrastructure shortfalls facing Tanzania despite a huge debt it accumulated in those years indicates this actuality.

Nevertheless, the debt had to be serviced, except of course where lenders were willing to write it off, something which does not occur frequently.

Not paying is expensive

There is a recent example to show just how costly it is when a country fails to service a debt. In the 1980s Tanzania borrowed Sh49 billion from Brazil to finance construction of Morogoro-Dodoma highway. The debt was never serviced. By 2010, it had accumulated to $240 million (about Sh336 billion under the current exchange rates). This is far more than what the country borrowed.

Fortunately for Tanzania the road was built and it is there. But the country was lucky also as after long negotiations, the Brazilian authorities recently agreed to waive it. In its analysis, Uwazi points out that if the Sh2.12 trillion that the government will borrow on commercial terms in 2010/11 is not serviced, it could in a decade also balloon to an amount too painful to service.

For instance, Uwazi says, if the loan is charged a 5 per cent interest rate per year, payable monthly and is not serviced, in 10 years this amount will have increased by 65 per cent and will have more than doubled in 15 years.
This proves that non paying one's debt is expensive. The longer maturing obligations are not serviced the higher the interest accumulated become.

The debt owed to Brazil just demonstrates how bad this can be. Such a risk is also more pronounced in the case of foreign borrowing on commercial terms, which normally does not have grace periods and charges relatively higher interest rates.

Another concern, according to Uwazi, is whether Tanzania will be able to manage its debt service obligations. At present, not all existing debt is serviced, and more commercial borrowing could cause additional strain. As of June 2010, the country had debt service arrears comprising principal and unpaid interest worth $2,760.8 million (or Sh3.8 trillion). Unpaid interest accounts for the bulk of the arrears.

According to Bank of Tanzania, selling new securities to redeem maturing debt is straightforward when dealing with domestic debt. This is logic since the transactions are based on the same currency.

But Uwazi notes that this cannot be applied for external debts because such a debt must be paid in foreign currencies and is prone to exchange rate risk. Uwazi proposes that new commercial debt must be serviced steadfastly
 
UUUUi twafwa,yaani deni limezidi mara mia moja zaidi ya deni tulilokuwa nalo kabla hatujaingia kwenye misahaya ya madeni ,hawa watu njia nikuwaondoa kabla ya kuja kuwafanya watoto na wajukuu na vitukuu wetu wakawa wahemeaji kwenye nchi yao
 
Tukimpata kiongozi makini by 31 oct ni kupiga mufilisi waliotufikisha uko then ela itumike kusettle madeni finished
 
Miaka saas karibia Sita iliyopita, niliuliza hili swali. Tukafanya uchaguzi 2010, sasa uchaguzi mwingine 2015. Saada Mkuya waziri wa fedha na hata Mkaguzi Mkuu wa Mahesabu CAG wanaonyesha kukuwa na kushindwa kudhibiitiwa kwa deni la Taifa.

Je tunapotafakari na kupigana vita vya nani mgombea bora kuleta maendeleo Tanzania, tumeshajiuliza hili swali la ni vipi tutajenga mfumo mzuri wa kiuchumi na mapato ikiwa madeni yanazidi mapato marudufu, matumizi ya kawaida ni makubwa kuliko matumizi ya kimaendeleo?
 
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