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Cue card from Hugo

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Rev. Kishoka, Dec 4, 2007.

  1. Rev. Kishoka

    Rev. Kishoka JF-Expert Member

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    A major lesson from Caracas to CCM; People get tired of populists and empty promises. JK, Msekwa, Makamba, EL, Nchimbi & Karume, please read the writings on the wall!!

    By a small margin, just 2% the political landscape of Venezuela has changed for good. Even though I was an ardent fan of Hugo Chavez stand on national economic interest; forcing Multinationals to give a comprehensible amount of taxes and royalties to Venezuela(not the 3% of Tanzania), I could not agree with his moves to make himself a President for Life (kwetu sisi itakuwa Chama Twawala Milele kama wanavyojitamba).

    A major lesson from Caracas to Opposition; Msiwe waoga! jifunzeni kujenga umoja kuanzia nyasimizizi (grassroots). Fundisheni Taifa lenu Utaifa somo lililodharauliwa na CCM kutokana na ushindi kidedea.

    Venezuela's Chávez chastened
    Rejection of bid for more power shows limits of support
    By Juan Forero
    The Washington Post
    updated 4:39 a.m. CT, Tues., Dec. 4, 2007
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    CARACAS, Venezuela - A day after the first electoral loss of Hugo Chávez's presidency, the calculus of political affairs in Venezuela has fundamentally changed.
    A once-demoralized, inept opposition won an important victory in Sunday's national referendum on constitutional changes, exposing weaknesses in Chávez's traditional base of support and slowing, at least for the moment, a process that would have eroded the country's system of checks and balances.
    "The first thing we did was to defeat that giant leap of the president to his totalitarian project," Américo Martín, a longtime leftist leader here opposed to Chávez, said Monday. "That has an enormous significance. The second thing we did was to show that the vote does work here."
    Analysts said the rejection of 69 constitutional amendments demonstrated that important segments of Chávez's base of support -- the poor and the working class -- are not willing to accept his vision wholesale, no matter how popular his social and economic programs. Even some of those who had ardently backed the president in the past had their doubts this time.
    The president acknowledged the significance of his loss after midnight Monday, minutes after authorities announced that voters had rejected, 51 percent to 49 percent, amendments that would have permitted him to run for office indefinitely, control the country's finances and appoint governors. Chávez noted that 7.3 million of his countrymen had reelected him last December, but that his supporters didn't turn out in the same numbers this time.
    "We had 3 million fewer votes than we received a year ago, imagine that," he said in an interview on state television.
    Chávez has five more years in office and under the current constitution cannot be reelected. He could call for an elected constituent assembly to change the charter, though it could prove difficult for him to ensure such a body is full of his supporters.
    Concession
    During a predawn speech Monday in which he conceded the defeat of his proposal, Chávez said he thought the majority of Venezuelans still supported his government. But he said that the high abstention rate among his supporters should prompt deep reflection in his populist government, now ending its ninth year in power.
    "They abstained because of doubts, fears, because there wasn't enough time or preparation to explain, perhaps," he said. "But there you find many political elements and statistics that we need to take into account to continue this battle."
    Many voters said the proposed changes to the constitution would simply have given the president too much power. He already controls the National Assembly, the courts and most state and local governments. In one Caracas district, Carlos Sanabria, 44, said that he had voted for Chávez or his reforms in every election since 1998 but that he could not back him in the referendum.
    "Everything is not for him, like he thinks," said Sanabria, a shoemaker. "We're not in Cuba -- this is Venezuela."

    The opposition was deflated after dramatically losing a 2004 recall referendum and then last year's presidential election. But Sunday's outcome triggered euphoria among the university students, church leaders, politicians and even former Chávez allies who had risen up against the president's plan.
    Analysts, as well as some of the president's foes, said the opposition movement remains fragile. While it coalesced against an unpopular proposal, it still lacks a cohesive message, a high-profile leader and alternatives to Chávez's so-called Bolivarian Revolution. The government's myriad social programs are immensely popular with the poor masses.
    "This result is more one of discontent in the internal base of Chavismo than a victory for the opposition," said Margarita López Maya, a historian at the Central University of Venezuela. "They continue to have many challenges. There are still no clear proposals to counter the Bolivarian project. The Bolivarian project is still there, with contradictions and weaknesses, but there."


    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22087793/
     
  2. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

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    Mchungaji: Message received. Japokuwa tunajua kampeni za kuanguka kwa Hugo zinaendeshwa na Marekani. Wananchi wanatumika.
     
  3. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

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    Kuna masomo ya kujifunza kutoka Venezuela, bado sijaelewa ni yapi hasa..
     
  4. Rev. Kishoka

    Rev. Kishoka JF-Expert Member

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    Tyuti, Mwana,

    Somo linakwenda pande zote za shilingi(CCM/Upinzani).

    Kwa CCM, ambacho kimekuwa chama kidedea na cha majisifu ya ushindi wa kishindo, mambo yanaweza kugeuka, pamoja na sera zao za Ari, Kasi, Nguvu na Meno mapya. Chavez alichofanya ni kubana mikataba na rasilimali ili kurutubisha nchi yake. Hilo nampa tano ya nguvu. Lakini anapoingiza ubabe wa kidikteta, hilo halina mahali pa kuvumiliwa.

    Je CCM si kama Chavez? Maarufu, ila sera za uji wa mlenda na ubabe wa dola (mahakama, polisi, tume ya uchaguzi, bunge)?

    Upinzani wa Bongo ni bado dhaifu, kama upinzani wa venezuela kama nilivyoonyesha kwenye maandishi. Wananchi wameanza kupata imani, lakini wanasita kuwapa upinzani nguvu kwa maana Upinzani hauna sera yeyote zaidi ya kuingoa CCM! Aidha yaelekea upinzani wa TZ ni wa kupamba magazeti tuu na hakuna ufanisi, ndio maana kuna migongano kila kesho na hivyo wananchi hubakia kusema "Heri Zimwi likujualo....."
     
  5. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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  6. Rev. Kishoka

    Rev. Kishoka JF-Expert Member

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  7. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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  8. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

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    This is a different debate all together. I don't agree with you that the opposition does not have an agenda. I do agree with you however, that a majority of our people do not know what the opposition stands for. But again, the other important question is this, are the people really interested with listening about the political agenda? Again, another big question, if CCM have clear and probably good policies as many people tend to claim,and yet they have failed the country enormously, is it really the question of agenda or it is a matter of competence? As I said the issue you raised above in one sentence needs a different forum/thread-this thread is about Hugo and lets stick to that.
     
  9. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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    Kitila,
    I bet you know JK and his team do not lose sleep because of opposition but he is more scared of what Jambo Forum will come up with while our PM Mr Lowassa is more scared of Mwanakijiji and Mwanahalisi newspaper than Mtikila na saa ya ukombozi ni sasa



    The tragedy is that, confronted by the most corrupt, hypocritical, inefficient, illiberal, discredited government in history, what millions of voters are looking for is an alternative which might put an end to the sleazy, self-regarding sham of the CCM era by displaying some "masculine" firmness in improving our bloated but inefficient public sector and the out-of-control bureaucracy which is destroying our health service, education and police force; which might encourage enterprise; which might restore democracy to local government; bring back some balance into our public finances; sort out the shambles into which our Armed Forces who are about to be taken to Darfur are sliding; uphold Tanzania's national interest, as we suffocate under the malfunctioning system of government represented by the Chama cha Mapinduzi.



    In other words, what much of the country is crying out for is a party which represents precisely those values which both MAALIM SEFU,FREEMAN MBOVE,CHEYO AND MTIKILA and their respective political parties that they represent seems so hellbent on abandoning.The only clear message the mentioned personalities seems to have put over to the voters is their sentimental "MABOMU na MIHADHARA KILA KUKICHA on which their dotty little gimmicks and practical ignorance have simply made them a laughing stock.


    Thats why i said, the current opposition in Tanzania is nothing but useless
     
  10. Field Marshall ES

    Field Marshall ES JF-Expert Member

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    I do agree with you however, that a majority of our people do not know what the opposition stands for

    Saafi mkuu Kitila, strong point na I' down. Hugo Chaves, nilikuwa ninamheshimus ana hasa kwa the fact kwamba at one time ali-spend a lot of time in prison kwa kutaka kufanya a coup, kwa sababu alikuwa na sababu nyingi za kimsingi politically, kwa tiafa la Venezuela,

    Lakini recently nimekuwa behind sana katika kujaribu ku-comprehend exactly what he stands for, na kama ni kweli ninavyosikia kuwa ana mpango wa kutawala milele au mpaka siku ya kufa kwake, na ndio hasa what was the core ya referendum yake, eti CCM ina cha kujifunza kutoka kwa huyu mkuu chaves?

    Sina uhakika, unless kuna something I am missing?
     
  11. Rev. Kishoka

    Rev. Kishoka JF-Expert Member

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    ES, Game,

    You missed the point on Utawala wa Milele. CCM inajulikana kwa kujitapa na kujiongoza kama chama cha milele. Ingawa bado haijapitisha hata azimio moja la kujifanya watawala wa milele, matendo yake kama chama na Serikali na watendaji wake, yana ainisha kuwa wao ni wa milelel na kamwe hawatabadilika.

    Same with Chavez, Mugabe or Musharaff who thinks that they are to lead their respective countries for good.

    Leo Tanzania, kuna haja ya kubadilisha katiba yetu kwa faida ya Taifa, lakini mabadiliko ya 1984 na hata ya baadaye ya vyama vingi, yalikuwa ni kuinufaisha CCM.

    Leo hii utendaji wa Serikali ya CCM ni mbovu kama GT alivyosema. Lakini CCM wanajisifu kwa ushindi wa Tsunami wa 2005!

    Upinzani, haujaweza kugangamaa na kuja na sera tofauti ya CCM zaidi ya vurugu mechi walizokuwa nazo kwa muda mrefu. Ni hivi karibuni unasikia TLP, CUF, Chadema na UDP wanakaa meza moja na kujadiliana ni nini cha kufanya huku Mtikila akiendesha vita ya kivyake.

    Jee haya yote si mambo ya msingi na kujiuliza kutoka Venezuela, ni vipi wananchi wake waliompa Chavez Tsunami la ushindi walikacha kwenda kupiga kura? Ni vipi sera za Chavez za kutaka kutumia dola (teuzi za wakuu wa mikoa, mahakama, bunge- absolute power) milele zimegonga mwamba?

    Sisi kama Taifa, tunaweza kuleta mabadiliko na si CCM au Upinzani. Mfano, Raisi wetu ana absolute powers. Anateua mawaziri, Waziri wake Mkuu ni Mkuu wa Bunge, Anateua kila Jaji na Hakimu, anateua watendaji wote wa Serikali mpaka wakurugenzi wa Kata!, Anateua tume za Uchaguzi, msajili wa Vyama hata wakuu wa vyuo!

    Je ni vipi vyombo hivi vitakuwa huru na kumpa pingamizi?

    Upinzani wetu, ni vipi inabidi waanze kujinadi kwa sera na mipango ya kweli ambayo ni yake ni kumtumikia Mtanzania na sii kuingia Ikulu au kuing'oa CCM tuu?

    Nia yangu ilikuwa si kufananisha Venezuela na Tanzania, bali ni kujifunza kutokana na yaliyotokea Venezuela na ni jinsi gani tunaweza kuleta msukumo wa kuleta mabadiliko (upinzani) wa kweli ambao utadumisha Demokrasia, haki na usawa kwa matakwa ya Wananchi na si Chama kimoja au kikundi kidogo cha watu!
     
  12. Rev. Kishoka

    Rev. Kishoka JF-Expert Member

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    Chavez has been humbled and humiliated with defeat. Will CCM be able to stand the defeat? or yatakuwa yale yale ya Zanzibar, kubadilisha kura na kutumia Jeshi na Polisi kudumisha Utawala?
     
  13. Pundit

    Pundit JF-Expert Member

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    The problem with Tanzania, and many African nations in our bracket (Highly Indebted Least Developed Countries) is that we do not have a substantive middle class.If you do not have a substantive middle class, you are prone to fall for the politics of gimmicks, mabomu,empty election promises not to mention the politics of personalities rather than policies.This is why people do not know CHADEMA's agenda.

    I suspect CHADEMA may not have a well developed agenda, but even if they do have one, where is their forum? Hivi CHADEMA wana gazeti na redio? Network yao ina promote vipi policies zao? even if they have a paper that explain their economic policy and foreign policy in detail, will the people (non middle class) whose immediate concern is bread and butter care? How many people read Rai versus magazeti ya udaku?

    To make it worse the opposition seems focused on winning the presidential election rather than building up support for parliament seats.

    There is an apparent vicious cycle of poverty that tempts one to think it is there by design, rather than accident of nature of impotency on the part of our leaders.It is in CCM's interest to have a country with poor uneducated people because it is much easier to control these people than an educated middle class.

    Tanzania's opposition will not solve political problems, least of all unseat CCM, until there is an economic revolution.the CCM government is strategically located to control any economic revolution and as a result, political revolution by ballot.
     
  14. Kitila Mkumbo

    Kitila Mkumbo Verified User

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    What makes you believe this? In a country where presidential elections are held at the same time as parliamentary elections, how can a serious political party around campaining and say we only want parliamentary seats but not presidency? Are you kidding? In fact what you are saying here is not new; it was firstly said by Nyerere in 1990s and many lazy thinking lads picked up and have been repeating the same sentiment without seriously digesting why Nyerere said so then and what would the implications of following such advice now and the context in which it was said then. How does it make worse for the opposition to think of winning a presidential seat?

    Ok, lets look at some facts. Since its inception in 1992, CHADEMA never put a presidential candidate until last elections in 2005. Yet all those rounds that it did not put a presidential candidate and sought only parliamentary seats, it did very badly. Indeed, the best performance for CHADEMA was in 2005 when it did put a presidential candidate. Now, I ask again where is the evidence to show that not wanting the presidency would improve opposition's political fortunes?

    Can we learn to make our arguments basing on some iota of evidence rather than shouting?
     
  15. Pundit

    Pundit JF-Expert Member

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    Kitila,

    Presidential elections are more high stakes, more expensive, of a larger scope than parliamentary elections.Do not get me wrong, I am not suggesting that the opposition put down all efforts at the presidency, far from it.Rather, the opposition seems to be focused more on the presidential (which they have a lesser chance to win) than parliamentary (which they have a better chance to win)

    The idea is, to prove a party's effectiveness to Tanzanians through parliamentary merit.Sasa hivi kama Zitto atafanya kweli kwenye tume ya madini,kuna watu wengi 2010 watakuwa tayari kuwapa nafasi CHADEMA.With increased representation CHADEMA will posses the correct leverage to push for its policies and eventually be a force to reckon with, possibly to even unseat CCM.

    Sasa leo hata kama Mbowe angepata urais, angekuwa effective vipi na bunge la CCM?

    My point is there has to be a readjustment of priorities.Right now the opposition, just like everybody in Africa, is plagued by the so called "big man" syndrome where you have people like John Cheyo practically being UDP. This has to stop and parties must develop from the ground up, building grassroot support before entertaining high ambitions.

    Kama Nyerere angetaka kuichukua nchi kutoka kwa mkoloni bila ya kutembea nchi nzima na kusuka network ya TANU angefanikiwa? The opposition is in the same position Nyerere was in the colonial era.Huwezi kuwa rais bila ya kuwa na network ya wabunge na grassroot support.Hata ukitokea muujiza ukaweza kuwa rais huwezi kuwa effective kwani utakosa support ya bunge.
     
  16. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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    With opposition like CHADEMA and CUF why shouldnt CCM rule milele?

    Mzee if you have a problem with understanding matters related to Intl Affairs why even bother to punch them in here? How about getting your facts right?

    On Musharaff I made a piece on Pakistan and their politics with Mushraff sometimes bacj but since we have anti Itl Affairs regulations in Siasa it was moved but search engine is your friend

    As far as Chavez is concerned, would you hold my hand in condemning the UK and Australia for not having term limits for its prime ministers. Maybe then we can move on to the US Congress.Venezuela is democratic and Chavez's loss proves it. Now no one can keep talking nonsense about "Why does he keep winning?"

    Wakati huo wapinzani walipo tangu 1995 wanafanya nini?


    Blame it on the so called opposition
    It seems to me that these so called opposition parties have still to master the art of effective Opposition.

    I definitely share your concern about concentration of power, but to make presumptions about Chavez being a dictator without looking at the case closely isn't really helpful, either, and rather demonstrates an inability to look beyond our Western media propaganda system.Hebu njoo na substance kidogo ili tuwe na mwelekeo wa hii mjadala badala ya sweeping statements



    Waulize wapinzania wao wanafanya nini kuhusu hili?

    Well, now we get into the depths of the problem of our so called opposition parties have in a first-past-the-post system. CHADEMA are doing well at the moment; but as long as they are the third party they can't get to be the governing party in one leap.CHADEMA strategy for some time has been to replace the CUF as the main opposition party and then get into power. This is probably the best option (though it might not work of course due to a large constituency of CUF) in Pemba

    In short we do not have effective opposition or anything like it
     
  17. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

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    wrong...
    CHADEMA has not developed any meaningful agenda other than PR ZITTO!
     
  18. Pundit

    Pundit JF-Expert Member

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    Game,
    where is the "wrong" coming from?
     
  19. A

    Asha Abdala JF-Expert Member

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    Aeeehe Jamani..binadamu hatosheki....hata ukimpa nini... milele hatadhirika aeeehhh. CHADEMA walikuja na sera ya majimbo, CHADEMA wakaja na kupambana na ufisadi, CHADEMA wakaja na kutaka rasilimali ziwanufaishe watanzania waliowengi. Sijui zote hizo sio ajenda?

    Au ndio Game Theory zenyewe hizo?

    Asha
     
  20. A

    Asha Abdala JF-Expert Member

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    Are playing mind GAME or just THEORY? Mara oooohh wapinzani hovyo mara eeeh CHADEMA is doing well for the moment? Nakubaliana nawe kuwa CHADEMA inatia matumaini.

    Asha
     
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