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Consequences of a Ruto and Uhuru Presidency

Discussion in 'Kenyan News and Politics' started by Ab-Titchaz, Oct 28, 2012.

  1. Ab-Titchaz

    Ab-Titchaz Content Manager Staff Member

    Oct 28, 2012
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    Consequences of a Ruto and Uhuru Presidency


    PHOTO | FILE Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at a past rally in Nyandarua. The two are in the presidential contest even though they have crimes against humanity cases to answer at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. NATION MEDIA GROUP

    By OLIVER MATHENGE omathenge@ke.nationmedia.com
    Posted Saturday, October 27 2012 at 23:30

    In Summary

    • The British government was the first to sound a warning last week that a government led by either of the two would sour the relationship between Nairobi and London
    • The executive director of the International Commission of Jurists Kenya chapter George Kegoro said that should they win the election, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would place the country in an awkward position
    • Analysts say Kenya has always been on the international community's radar due to the foreign interests in the region.

    Kenya is staring at a possible diplomatic crisis if Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto take office after the General Election.

    The British government was the first to sound a warning last week that a government led by either of the two would sour the relationship between Nairobi and London.

    British High Commissioner Christian Turner said the Queen's government does not engage with people indicted for international crimes.

    Speaking on Citizen TV's Power Breakfast show last Tuesday, Mr Turner said it was British policy that its ministers and government officials should not meet anyone who is facing charges for international crimes.

    "The electoral matter is a Kenyan affair. But neither myself nor other government ministers talk to or engage with indictees," Mr Turner said.

    His comments followed those of chief mediator Kofi Annan who said three weeks ago that "it's an issue before the court and neither President Mkapa nor I would want to comment on it in detail. But of course there are implications which everyone needs to ponder, particularly when you are dealing with leadership of the country, leadership within the country and also leadership that also involves relations with other countries outside and beyond Africa."

    The executive director of the International Commission of Jurists Kenya chapter George Kegoro said that should they win the election, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would place the country in an awkward position.

    "There would be significant practical problems for Kenya as the president, expected to run the country, will firstly be physically absent on trial, and, secondly, sharing his time between somehow leading the country from abroad and mounting a defence in his trial. Ruto has offered that if he finds himself in this situation, he will run the country remotely using information technologies," says Mr Kegoro in a commentary.

    "Reasonable people would, however, not consider this a practical possibility. As an accused person the president would lose control of his time, and the long absence in a foreign land will remove his ability to exercise personal judgment in decisions that he must make for the government. In other words, an absentee president would effectively have abdicated power to others in his government who will remain behind in Kenya, as he travels to The Hague for trial."

    ICC chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, who ended a five-day visit to Kenya on Friday, said she looked forward to co-operation from the suspects even if they were elected.

    "Kenya is a signatory to the Rome Statute, and extraction warrants will be issued if any of them is elected president and fails to collaborate with the ICC. Kenya risks having a president who will leave his duties to attend the trial and will not be allowed to travel to ICC signatory states," Ms Bensouda said.

    Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have both indicated they will seek the presidency, possibly through a joint ticket despite facing crimes against humanity charges at the ICC for the 2008 post-election violence.

    Analysts say Kenya has always been on the international community's radar due to the foreign interests in the region. A repeat of election-related violence is not only a threat to the country's stability but would also affect the entire region, they say.

    "They (foreigners) have a lot of interest in the region, and Kenya is the entry point to the region. Kenyan elections are international elections, and they therefore try to influence and shape how the elections go," said Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University.

    "Things are still fluid right now, but you will see them double their efforts as the election draws closer. This may be because things are either going extremely well, or they are not in pursuant to their interests," he said.

    International lawyer and lecturer Prof Kindiki Kithure shares in Prof Munene's position, adding that Kenya's engagement in Somalia is of key interest to western powers. He argues that many of them want to see Somalia stable in order to minimise shouldering the burden of refugees and illegal immigrants.

    "They also see the political engagement with Kenya as an opportunity to recover what they have lost to the East through the economic policies of the Kibaki administration. The visibility they are seeking towards the elections is political in nature," Prof Kithure said.

    Political scientist Prof Karuti Kanyinga says the international community has always showed keen interest in Kenya, and this would continue as long as the country remains a regional hub. And recent activities in Nairobi of foreign dignitaries is proof of this.

    The Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs of the German Federal Parliament headed by Mr Siegfried Kauder was in the country two weeks ago for "political dialogue on good governance and the rule of law".

    And two weeks ago, US Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson held a conference call with journalists on various issues affecting the country including the war against Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

    In September, Mr Carson said that US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were paying close attention to Kenya's preparations for the polls.

    In April the US sent a State Department team to the US Embassy in Nairobi "to develop plans focused on helping Kenyans carry out peaceful and credible elections, advance their reform agenda, and prevent or mitigate conflict leading up to and beyond the elections."

    Earlier this month, UK International Development Secretary Justine Greening and minister for Africa Mark Simmonds held meetings with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Internal Security minister Katoo ole Metito and Chief Justice Willy Mutunga in Nairobi.

    They discussed a wide range of issues from development and trade and investment to security and Kenya's preparations for elections.

    "We have discussed Kenya's preparations for the elections...Like all Kenyans, the UK above all wants the elections to be credible, safe and fair. I want to emphasise that we are of course impartial. Our job is not to back any one candidate over the other. It is not who wins but how they win," Mr Simmonds said.

    Canada is also seeking greater engagement with Kenya and has played a key role in the acquisition of biometric voter registration kits.

    But Mr Kenyatta has said that if elected he would engage with countries that want to work with him.

    "My focus is on Kenya, the region and the continent. No Kenyan or African, other than those who come as tourists, has said Uhuru should not vie for the presidency, so the rest can stay away if they don't want to associate with us," he said recently.

    During one of her press briefings, Ms Bensouda said The Hague-based court would not bend its operations to fit Kenya's politics.

    She added that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would not obtain immunity from prosecution even if they are elected to the presidency.

    Consequences of a Ruto and Uhuru presidency - Politics - nation.co.ke
  2. Ab-Titchaz

    Ab-Titchaz Content Manager Staff Member

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  3. Butola

    Butola JF-Expert Member

    Oct 28, 2012
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    ...In this matter, Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete got it right...

    "Kenyans are masters of their own destiny and must be allowed to elect their leaders without undue interference"

    Uhuru Kenyatta Homecoming Prayer Rally at Uhuru Park - YouTube

  4. Edzeame

    Edzeame Senior Member

    Oct 29, 2012
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    What my fellow Beloved moderator I would like to advice you that Kenya is not a "banana republic", The dynamics of Kenyan politics is not equal to other Independent corrupt african nations that would crouch onto the feet of western governments to safeguard their relations an action always motivated by selfish greed and the need for monetary aid. If trends are to go by, most african nations that depend on aid are the most poorest of nations. Nations that depend on aid and have mineral resources have failed to translate them into wealth that can affect people's lives. Instead, the mineral resources have remained tokens for western governments to act as a safeguard for regime's selfish interests.

    *To rejoin the opening statement about kenya not being a "banana republic", there are worst implications of diplomatic and economic sanctions and they may be not be the best course of action especially for bilateral coherence. The west will loose big-time, if it decides to enforce diplomatic and economic sanctions; International investors will leave for other destinations.

    *There is no doubt that the world fincancial system is reverting back to the "gold standard" for valueing currency. This means that world major currencies would have a hard time bouncing back when their rates plummet after deep recessions.

    *After the emergence of the Eurozone-crisis, intra-border trade between the east african nations have increased dramatically, therefore, the Western governments will have to increase the tentacles of their sabotage machinery to the other East african governments to stop the trade; which is already happening.

    *The story of west and these african leaders can be equated to the "carrot and the stick". Some East african leaders already being partisan to western political tools to increase their chances of trying to make east african countries more vulnerable to open control and manupilation from western governments; and these african leaders being sought to be vehicles to help the west achieve their goals are doing this out of sheer greed for financial gain.

    *The west has succeeded to use military programs(AFRICOM,AMISOM), grants like HIPC(Heavily indebted poor countries), loans to corrupt governments to entice such corrupt and visionless leaders who have stayed in power to advance their agenda in Africa.

    *There is a big concern especially from the public regarding ICC's obstinate refusal to listen to the people who were the most affected by the Kenyan 08 PEV; The office of the prosecutor through their messenger/politican MS bensouda have openely quashed calls from the most affected indigents living in tents and displaced people to reconsider their evidence and bring more people (Big-wigs) under investigations...

    *...This further proves that the ICC is not intent on bringing justice to affected people, but a group created for interference and obstructionism to validate candidates suitable for open control and manupilation.
  5. Ab-Titchaz

    Ab-Titchaz Content Manager Staff Member

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    Apocalyptic implications of having a president who is an ICC suspect


    Posted Sunday, October 28 2012 at 18:32

    As elections approach, Kenyans will need to decide whether they will vote using their heads or their hearts, particularly in relation to the bids of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto, both of whom have been indicted by the International Criminal Court over crimes committed before and after the last election in 2007.

    Regardless of whether Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are innocent, and notwithstanding their support in their ethnic strongholds, we as a nation have to soberly and rationally consider what an Uhuru or Ruto presidency will mean for Kenya.

    As Kofi Annan, the African Union envoy who mediated the 2008 peace deal, said recently, if an ICC suspect assumes the presidency in the next election, the consequences for Kenya could be disastrous politically and economically. Here's why:

    1. Kenya could be labelled a pariah state by the international community. This will mean that donors will withdraw their moral and financial support to Kenya. Donor-funded long- and medium-term plans and projects, such as Vision 2030, will be shelved. Poverty levels will rise. Economic growth rates will decline. Kenya will not attain middle income status by 2030.

    2. Western nations may impose a trade embargo on Kenya. The African Union, which backed the peace process, may press upon its members to impose sanctions on Kenya. Kenya's coveted membership in the East African Community might also be threatened.Domestic revenues may see Kenya through, but without trading partners, revenue from exports will fall, leading to further hardships. Just ask the Cubans what the 50-year US trade embargo has done to their economy and you will see why this scenario is not desirable.

    3. The United Nations may pull out of Kenya and set up base in a neighbouring country, thereby severely affecting the local economy. Revenue gained from UN conferences, contracts and projects will disappear. If the UN leaves, Kenya will lose millions of dollars that pass through the country's banks. Nairobi's housing and retail markets that cater for UN staff will collapse.

    4. Like Zimbabweans under Robert Mugabe, Kenyans will start seeking refuge and jobs in neighbouring countries. Kenya will be viewed as a failed state like Somalia, generating the large numbers of refugees and IDPs. Western countries will start to impose harsher travel restrictions on Kenyans. Middle and upper class Kenyans who can afford to travel and send their children abroad for further studies may be particularly affected.

    5. If Uhuru and Ruto do not appear at their own trials, they will not be able to represent Kenya at international forums. Their travel will be restricted to countries that promise not to hand them over to the ICC. They, in turn, may decide to follow the path of isolationism by breaking all international agreements that Kenya is signatory to.

    6. If Ruto and Uhuru attend their trials, and even if they are found innocent, they will have to spend a considerable amount of their time at The Hague. Kenya will suffer from an absentee leadership. Anarchy might ensue. Regional warlords may take advantage of the situation and break up the country into fiefdoms. Jealous neighbours may also use the leadership vacuum to gain economic and political supremacy in the region.

    7. If found guilty, Uhuru and Ruto will face a Nixonian moment: resign or be impeached by the National Assembly," says Tom Maliti of the ICC Kenya Monitor blog. "At the ICC level, the men will go into detention as the court searches for a country to hold them in prison for the duration of whatever sentence is handed down."

    Like most Kenyans, I wish we didn't have to consider these scenarios. But we do, unfortunately, because we stand to lose everything we have worked for in the last 50 years if we make the wrong choices at the ballot box next year, and if we allow ethnic affiliation, rather than national interest, to determine our vote.

    If we want impunity to end, maybe we should lock out everyone who was part of the current coalition government, and vote in a fresh, visionary, untainted candidate.

    Apocalyptic implications of having a president who is an ICC suspect - Opinion - nation.co.ke
  6. Edzeame

    Edzeame Senior Member

    Oct 29, 2012
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    Yes, it is a coincidence that MS. Warah is calling it apocalyptic, but the issue is that time is running out. But people think that it is only Uhuruto who are in the race for statehouse, but ICC has fallen into a trap of legal errors making rulings without crucial evidence as in hearsay.
  7. chash

    chash JF-Expert Member

    Nov 5, 2012
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    Kakistocracy: A government by the worst elements of a society. Imagine being led by master minds of the worst crimes, murder, rape even if by proxy. The fact that there was enough information to warrant taking the case to ICC and the suspects could not even exonerate themselves in preliminary hearings and the case had to go for full trial. The numbers of current leaders supporting the suspects tells you that Kenya is definitely a Kakistocracy and one day the country may split into several small states as we can see with MRC. Surely who would accept to be led by such people?
  8. L

    Leviticus Member

    Nov 8, 2012
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    Internationally in the field of Law one cannot subvert the procedures involved in presenting a case for prosecution but ICC is the only court in the history of the world that has managed to ignore procedures required to prosecute those guilty of crimes. And that is why it is called a kangaroo court. The ICC intentionally stopped the prosecution of those involved in sebrenisca massarce. They bypassed prosecuting the case because of a missing 400 page document yet, there was raw video footage that was presented as evidence to the prosecutor. The name Kangaroo fits the courts description. White men accused of atrocities can never be indicted at the Hague because of the white supremacy ideology which has never been rejected.

    Cases take years before conclusive passing of judgment. The ideologies driving the ICC resemble a noble extension of those that drove apartheid, Holocaust or the Gulag.

    in the history of the ICC there has never been an African chief prosecutor until the very recent promotion of Ms Bensouda to work in tandem with the ever increasing African cases. The Hague is a court meant for third world countries. It is no wonder veteran South African priest Desmond Tutu challenged the Hague court to prosecute former US president George W bush and Tony Blair for the attrocities they commited in Iraq but the court have. always remained tight-lipped never commenting about the issue raised.

    Obama subtly evaded the same trap his predecessor Bush fell into in Iraq by engaging drone technology in Afghanistan and Syria to avoid being tagged as a mastermind for genocide. As technology becomes a defense for western governments against being labelled as genocide masterminds Africa's independent governance and electoral process is under threat.