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Confidence interval kwenye matokeo

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Chapakazi, Nov 1, 2010.

  1. Chapakazi

    Chapakazi JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Nov 1, 2010
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    Ivi statistically, mgombea urais lazima awashinde wenzie kwa percentage ngapi? Nikiangalia statistically, kama results zina 95% confidence interval...ina maana kuwa lazima ashinde by more than 5% of total votes?
    Kwa hiyo kwa Tanzania...kama voters wako mil 19, je ni lazima mgombea ashinde kwa zaidi ya kura laki 9 na nusu - 950,000?

    Au inakuwaje hii wakuu?
     
  2. R

    RMA JF-Expert Member

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    Ni simple majority. Hata kama akimzidi kwa kura moja.
     
  3. Chapakazi

    Chapakazi JF-Expert Member

    #3
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    sidhani...statistically hairuhusiwi! Maana kuna errors katika uhesabu nk. Huwezi kukubali matokea ya kura million 19 kwa ushindi wa kura moja!
     
  4. P

    PapoKwaPapo JF-Expert Member

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    mkuu hutaki kukubali wakati ndio katiba yako inavyosema?
     
  5. PayGod

    PayGod JF-Expert Member

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    acha ubishi, husomagi katiba?
     
  6. Chapakazi

    Chapakazi JF-Expert Member

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    katiba inasema ivyo sawa, lakini hii ni strategy kwa wagombea. Wewe kama ni mgombea, usikubali matokea kama mwenzie amekuzidi kwa chini ya kura laki kadhaa maana kuna errors nyingi. Hilo ndilo lililotendeka marekani!
     
  7. Kachanchabuseta

    Kachanchabuseta JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu aminia naona uko deep QM

    Sasa hapo tafuta level significant

    na critical Value +-Za/2 hahahah
     
  8. Gsana

    Gsana JF-Expert Member

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    Furaha inawapeleka wasomi wa hesabu kufikiria critical value,significant level, confidence interval, teeh teeh! Ukweli ni kwamba katiba inasema hata kama jeykey ana 0 na dr.S ana kura 1 basi dr. S atashika dola,regardless ya margin. Kama mwaka huu kati ya mil.19 wapiga kura hawatazidi 14mil. ila mr. President lazima apatikane,hamna ku break even wala parameter!
     
  9. Chapakazi

    Chapakazi JF-Expert Member

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    Maneno kwenye katiba haya-exist hewani tu. Kama umesoma sheria hili utatambua. Kila neno kwenye sheria linakuwa na justification! Ndo maana nasema its a plausible argument kisheria...kuweza kutumia hesabu katika kutokukubali matokeo! Na hii ni moja ya mfano huo. Kama hesabu inasema ushindi wa kura moja hauwezekani unless kuwa hakuna error hata moja...basi sheria yeyote lazima ikubaliane na hili. Hii ndo justification yenyewe!
     
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