By Rutashubanyuma Hon MP and former Premier Edward Lowassa's days in ccm have now been numbered as he carefully sends confusing messages to his "will soon be" former employers in ccm and his possible new suitors in Chadema. It is no longer a question of whether Lowassa will stay in CCM but it has come clear to my mind Lowassa's political future lies in Chadema and not CCM. Here are my reasons……. Historical background revisited Lowassa's overambitious action plan begun in 1995 when he thought being the perceived most powerful member of President Ali Hassan Mwinyi's cabinet had entitled him to run and win the presidency! Little did he know that Mkapa had already done a lot of groundwork that had precipitated for the downfall of the then First Vice president John Malecela and the once powerful cabinet Minister in the president's office and CCM Secretary General one Holice Kolimba. Where Malecela and Kolimba were kicking each other in the tooth in a forlorn fight to succeed an aging president Mwinyi, Mkapa was making regular and yet calculated trips to Butiama where he was confiding with Nyerere on weaknesses of both Malecela and Kolimba. Nyerere, possibly acting on sentimentality over his former Tabora boys' student-Mkapa, wrote a shallow account of how the duo- in Malecela and Kolimba-had misled President Mwinyi over union saga that had exploded in the parliament under G55 protest. The union saga had undermined Mwinyi and strengthened the hand of Malecela in particular but Nyerere capitalized on a ccm draconian policy where policy issues were first had to be approved by party top organs before were adopted for government implementation. Nyerere acidly argued that because Malecela and Kolimba were weak but overambitious leaders had failed to properly advise the president over the way forward because they were blinded by their over-ambitions! Ensuing from Nyerere untimely intervention both Malecela and Kolimba found themselves out of national power circuit and Mkapa became the preferable Nyerere candidate to succeed Mwinyi. Had Lowassa being a well honed politician he could have seen that running to defeat Mkapa was only in his dreamless nights but had no chance in the eyes of the patriarch Nyerere who was running the political show with a remote control. But lacking political insight and driven by mere self propelled ambition Lowassa joined Kikwete in hiring a plane in 1995 from Dar-Es-Salaam to Dodoma in a last minute hitchhike to return the filled forms for CCM presidential nominations papers! Many serious observers wondered whether the duo were earnest in their last minute dash to Dodoma. Nyerere, having been updated on Lowassa's undimmed quest for topmost position in the government, he began questioning the moral credentials of an upcoming politician in Lowassa. At one time, Nyerere raised an alarm that when these young politicians were trusted with smaller jobs they parlayed those positions to amass wealth and he wondered if those individuals if were entrusted with the presidency the nation could even be on the brink of bankruptcy. At CCM Central Committee, Nyerere made mince meat of Lowassa and Malecela candidacies based on moral credibility concerns. Ironically, where Kikwete had also morality questions to drill, Nyerere for some unclear reasons had ignored them! The lesson we can garner from this postulation is that Lowassa is not an astute politician and has a poor political hindsight though his burning ambition had served him well so far but it seems it is beginning to be his worst enemy and a liability. During the elevation of Kikwete to the CCM nominations in 2005 Lowassa too was harboring his presidential ambitions of his own. Kikwete knew that the then Premier Sumaye was a man to beat and if those who stood against Sumaye were divided then they would apart fall to him. So Kikwete through intermediaries advised Lowassa that he should support Kikwete's presidential candidacy and Kikwete would tap him for premiership as a stepping stone to presidency. Lowassa lacking political insight and blinded by over-ambition consented only to pay a huge price much later in this dog eat dog political World. During the inauguration of the House in 2006, Lowassa vaguely reminded Kikwete that he had promised to respect the constitution and he would not vie for a third term. A bemused Kikwete just coyly smiled giving no indication of where he stood on the matter. Many insiders thought Lowassa had put the cat out of the bag. Was he concerned that Kikwete could be grooming another presidential material on his back few months after he had been crowned the presidency or Lowassa had other insidious inclinations? Lowassa's cries of mercies were also notable when he was forced into an early premiership retirement and pressures for skinning off of the topmost echelons of CCM authority were well underway. Severally, Lowassa was reminding Kikwete of an unwritten MOU that except the two and their most trusted lieutenants knew what Lowassa was referring to. In the current setup, it has become crystal clear Kikwete has reneged on his promise to groom Lowassa for the topmost job and Lowassa is angry that the ingrate in Kikwete has betrayed him. Where on surface clinging to CCM may seem a wise idea for Lowassa but since he cannot see eye to eye with his former ally the mistrust has overgrown all senses of precautions and a full battle is ready to dissipate before our own very eyes. What are Lowassa's options? Ideally Lowassa may prefer to cling in CCM though he knows the presidency is all but gone as his former allies are busy reminding all and sundries that Lowassa is an epicenter of official graft in this nation. Staying in CCM will also jeopardize his ability to retain his Monduli Constituency as all of Arusha is now a Chadema's citadel. Sticking with CCM on delusional expectation the party will protect him and his ill gotten wealth is no longer reliable option as CCM determination to stay in power demands that big heads that include of Lowassa ought to be sacrificed to appease angry voters who will are unlikely to settle for less. With CCM unlikely to come to his rescue and top party officials in CCM indicating clearly that they regard Lowassa as a political spent-force and liability to CCM the choices have never been lucid to Lowassa. A Journey to Chadema is by no means without its own political risks. Where Chadema are relishing reaping a big fish like Lowassa but the difference between CCM as a party laden with official graft with Chadema a party abounds with Mr. Clean image will become blurred and confusing. CCM will quickly pounce that Chadema now is a den of thieves though Chadema will counterattack that since the new entrants have never been charged in a court of law and found guilty Chadema will not be judgmental. Either way Lowassa will be pleased to deal a final nail in CCM coffin while risking an arduous court battles as his former allies will try to respond in kind by opening up poorly bandaged wounds of Richmond and Dowans in criminal proceedings. Will Lowassa survive the CCM onslaught once in Chadema's blue corner? The answer is yes. The problem of hounding Lowassa in court will need to bring other CCM sharks and it will to big a price to pay.