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Bomu la Lowassa: Tumeligundua, Tunaliteguaje?

Discussion in 'Great Thinkers' started by Mchambuzi, Oct 24, 2012.

  1. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 24, 2012
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    Tumeshaelewa hoja ya Lowassa, nadhani sasa ni wakati wa kuelekeza juhudi zetu katika kutafuta ufumbuzi wa kudumu; Ni muhimu tukampongeza Lowassa kwa kuwa kiongozi wa kwanza nchini kulipa suala hili uzito unaostahili, lakini tutambue pia kwamba Lowassa sio mtu wa kwanza kuzungumzia tatizo hili kwani kwa wale wanaosoma tafiti mbalimbali, kwa miaka mingi sasa taasisi za utafiti kama vile REPOA, ESRF, na nyingine nyingi nje ya nchi (e.g. Benki ya Dunia n.k), zimekuwa zikilijadili suala hili na kutoa tahadhari kwa muda mrefu; Kitu muhimu alichofanya Lowassa ni kuamsha watu, kutokana na upeo wake mkubwa na uelewa juu ya masuala yanayozunguka jamii za dunia ya tatu, kupitia usomaji wa tafiti na ripoti mbalimbali, tofauti na viongozi wengi wa CCM ambao ni mchanganyiko wa wavivu wa kusoma na wasiojua kusoma kwa kuelewa;

    Suala lingine muhimu, pengine zaidi ni kwamba, kitendo cha Lowassa kulizungumzia suala hili ni ishara kubwa kwamba pengine sasa suala hili litapata "POLITICAL WILL", kwani ‘lack of political will' ni moja ya vikwazo vikubwa vinavyotukabili kama taifa katika jitihada za kutokomeza umaskini, na vile vile kuchukua maamuzi magumu kwa maslahi ya taifa;

    Ni vigumu kulielewa tatizo la ajira kwa vijana bila ya kuwa na takwimu za kulitazama na kulielewa kwa undani, kwani tatizo hili ni la kimfumo kuliko kitu kingine chochote; Ukosefu wa uchambuzi usiozingatia takwimu na pia kulielewa tatizo hili kimfumo ni moja ya mapengo makubwa yanayotawala mijadala juu ya suala hili; Nia yangu ni kujaribu kuziba pengo hilo, ili kwa pamoja tusaidiane kuondokana na siasa katika mjadala huu na kuhamia katika mikakati ya kutegua bomu hili kabla halijalipuka; Nitakachofanya hapa haitakuwa uchambuzi bali kwanza kuweka takwimu muhimu ili kwa pamoja tufanye uchambuzi, na pengine kupata ufumbuzi angalau kimjadala; Nitaanza na mfumo wa elimu ya msingi, sekondari, Vyuo Vikuu, na kumalizia na mawazo yangu kuhusu masuala muhimu ya kutazama kabla ya kuanza kunyoshea vidole serikali au chama chochote cha siasa;

    ELIMU YA MSINGI

    Kufikia mwaka 2012, mfumo wetu wa elimu ya msingi unakadiriwa kuwa na jumla ya watoto karibia milioni kumi; hili ni ongezeko la karibia watoto milioni mbili na nusu ndani ya kipindi cha miaka mitano tu, kwani mwaka 2007mfumo huu ulikuwa na jumla ya watoto milioni saba na nusu); Inakadiriwa kwamba watoto wanaofanikiwa kumaliza elimu ya msingi ni 80% ya watoto wote, huku 20% wakishindwa kufika darasa la saba kutokana na sababu mbalimbali; Kwa maana hii, kila baada ya miaka kadhaa, watoto wasiopungua milioni moja huingia mitaani wakiwa 'primary school dropouts'; Hii ni nje ya idadi ya watoto ambao hawafanikiwi kujiandikisha darasa la kwanza, hivyo kufanya idadi ya watoto wenye umri chini ya miaka kumi na tano wanaoishia mitaani bila elimu ya msingi kuwa kubwa zaidi, kila baada ya miaka kadhaa;

    Tumeona kwamba ni 80% ya watoto ndio hufanikiwa kumaliza darasa la saba; Sasa kati ya hawa 80%, wanaofanikiwa kuendelea na elimu ya sekondari ni 20% ya hao 80%; kwa maana hii, nje ya wale watoto zaidi ya milioni moja tuliobaini kwamba hawafiki darasa la saba, kuna mamilioni wengine ambao hawafanikiwa kuendelea na elimu sekondari kila baada ya miaka kadhaa; Kwahiyo ukichanganya makundi haya mawili (primary school dropouts na standard seven failures), unakuta mamilioni ya watoto wenye umri chini ya miaka 15 wanaishia mitaani kila baada ya miaka kadhaa;

    ELIMU YA SEKONDARI

    Ukiachilia mbali kundi la watoto wanaoishia ngazi ya elimu ya msingi, kuna tatizo pia kwenye ngazi ya sekondari; Kwa mujibu wa Benki ya Dunia (2010), katika kipindi cha mwaka 2000 – 2010, jumla ya wanafunzi milioni moja la laki tatu walimaliza elimu yao ya Sekondari Tanzania; Matokeo yao mitihani kidato cha nne yalikuwa kama yafuatayo:

    • Division One 3% (wanafunzi takribani 39,000)
    • Division Two, 5% (takribani wanafunzi 65,000)
    • Division Three, 15% (takribani wanafunzi 195,000)
    • Division Four, 50% (takribani wanafunzi 650,000)
    • Division Zero, 26% (takribani wanafunzi 338,000)

    Iwapo tunachukulia kwamba wanafunzi waliopata madaraja ya Kwanza hadi Tatu ndio uendelea na elimu ya juu, basi ina maana kwamba kati ya wanafuzi milioni moja na laki tatu waliomaliza elimu zao za sekondari katika kipindi hicho (2000 – 2010), waliofanikiwa kuendelea na elimu ya juu ni 25% tu [sawa na wanafunzi 325,000 kati ya jumla ya wanafunzi 1,300,000]; Hivyo, katika kipindi hiki, wanafunzi wa sekondari walioishia mitaani ni karibia 975,000; Hata kwa wale waliofanikiwa kuendelea na elimu ya juu, kama tunavyoelewa, bado suala la ajira huko mbeleni sio la uhakika;

    Benki ya Dunia inakisia kwamba takribani vijana 850,000 wenye umri kati ya miaka 15 na 25 huingia kwenye soko la ajira kila mwaka Tanzania, huku 40% ya hawa ikiwa ni form four failures; Benki ya Dunia inazidi kukadiria kwamba ifikapo mwaka 2015, kutakuwa na nyongeza ya vijana milioni moja na laki tatu katika soko la ajira;

    Kwa mujibu wa takwimu nyingine kutoka African Economic Outlook (2010), 60% ya watanzania hawajavuka miaka 25, na inakadiriwa kwamba ifikapo mwaka 2015, 75% ya watanzania watakuwa chini ya umri wa miaka 25;

    ELIMU VYUO VIKUU

    Kuanzia kipindi cha uhuru hadi mwisho wa miaka ya themanini, inasemekana kwamba 90% ya wahitimu wa vyuo vikuu Tanzania kila mwaka walikuwa wanapata ajira (wage employment); Lakini ilipofikia mwaka 1999, idadi hii ilishuka hadi 70%; Leo hii, inasemekana kwamba wahitimu wa vyuo vikuu wanaopata ajira kila mwaka (wage employment) haivuki 50%;

    BAADHI YA CHANGAMOTO

    • Idadi ya wahitimu wa vyuo vikuu inazidi kukua kwa kasi kuliko uwezo wa uchumi kuzalisha ajira;
    • Vile vile vijana wengi wanaohitimu darasa la saba, sekondari na pia baadhi ya wahitimu wa vyuo vikuu hawana ujuzi unaohitajika kwenye soko la ajira;
    • Vijana wengi wanaohitimu ngazi mbalimbali za elimu pia hawana ujuzi unaohitajika kujiajiri wenyewe, ukiachilia mbali tatizo la mitaji ya kuanzisha biashara;
    • Chini ya mfumo wa soko huria, Serikali bado haijafanikiwa kuja na sera zenye kuleta matumaini kwa vijana walio wengi;
    • Nchi wahisani hasa kupitia WorldBank, IMF na WTO hawana nia ya dhati ya kulitatua tatizo hili kwani hali iliyopo inayapa mataifa makubwa faida kubwa kiuchumi;


    SEKTA KUU ZA AJIRA NCHINI


    • Kilimo ni takriban 80%;
    • Sekta isiyo Rasmi (Informal Sector) takriban 9%;
    • Sekta Binafsi/iliyo Rasmi (Viwanda na Huduma) takriban 5%;
    • Serikali/Sekta Ya Umma karibia 2.5%;
    • Kazi Za Nyumbani (mashamba boy, n.k) karibia 3.5%;

    BAADHI YA MASUALA MUHIMU YA KUZINGATIA


    Kwanza, chini ya mfumo wa soko huria unaofuata kanuni za kiliberali na ubepari, uchumi unaendeshwa kwa kufuata nguzo kuu tatu ambazo ni PRIVATIZATION, LIBERALIZATION & MARKETIZATION;

    Pili, moja ya maeneo muhimu kisera katika mfumo huu ambayo yanasimamiwa kwa ukaribu na World Bank, IMF na WTO, ni pamoja na kupunguza inflation, kuondoa barriers on trade (ili bidhaa za nje ziingie kwa urahisi na kupata soko) & remove barriers on FDI (ili iwe rahisi kwa mitaji ya nje kuja kuwekeza kwenye sekta ambazo ni resource-based), kupunguza matumizi ya serikali (hasa matumizi katika uwezekezaji kwenye sekta ya UMMA na badala yake kuachia nguvu za soko zifanye hilo),n.k, yote haya kwa imani kwamba yatasaidia kukuza uchumi na kupunguza umaskini;

    Tatu, chini ya mfumo huu, serikali haina nafasi ya kuwa mzalishaji, mtengenezaji wa ajira, n.k, na badala yake hayo hutegemea zaidi nguvu ya soko; Kazi kubwa ya serikali inabakia kuwa Facilitation; Hii ni tofauti na enzi za UJAMAA ambapo serikali ilikuwa na nafasi ya kuzalisha huduma na bidhaa kwa wingi, kutengeneza ajira n.k, hasa kupitia umiliki wake wa njia kuu za uchumi;

    Na nne, tofauti na jinsi nchi tajiri zinavyoendesha sera za uchumu katika nchi zao, kwa mfano kwa kulipa suala la unemployment uzito mkubwa sambamba na economic growth na inflation, mataifa haya hayataki kushughulika na suala la unemployment kwenye nchi zetu, badala yake hujikita zaidi kwenye economic growth (ili mitaji yao ipate soko zaidi) na inflation (ili investor bonds zisiathirike); Kuondoa barriers to trade and foreign investment inasaidia wakubwa hawa kuua uwezo wetu to industrialize, na kuwa na a skilled pool of employees/labour force kwani tukifanikiwa katika haya mawili na kujitosheleza kwa bidhaa, tutaweza kuleta ushindani dhidi ya bidhaa zao ambazo zinaingia kwa urahisi kupitia trade liberalization; Vinginevyo suala la unemployment huwa treated on the sidelines na kwa umakini ili lisivuruge mpango huu;

    Hizi ni baadhi ya changamoto muhimu ambazo serikali ya CCM au Chadema, zote zitakumbana nazo Ikulu, na ni suala ambalo lipo katika nchi zote za "dunia ya tatu"; ni muhimu katika mjadala wetu juu ya ufumbuzi wa tatizo la ajira kwa vijana tukawa na ufahamu juu ya changamoto hizi, hasa kuhusu Nini serikali inaweza kufanya, na Nini Serikali haiwezi kufanya, bila ya kujalisha ni chama gani cha siasa au mtu gani anaingia Ikulu 2015;
     
  2. Nicole

    Nicole JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu Mchambuzi, umedadavua vyema ingawa mada hii,mzee lowasa amekuwa akipigia kelele ishu ya ajira bt tatizo serikal haijakubal kwamba hili ni bomu linalosubiri kulipuka,hivyo watashughulikia vipi tatizo/challenge ambayo hawataki kuiacknowledge kwamba inaexist?jitihada gani zinafanyika kubuni vyanzo vingine vya ajira?wanachokazana ni kuhakikisha hizo nafasi chache wanawapa watoto zao,hivyo basi binafsi sioni jitihada zozote za kutatua tatizo hili.
     
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  3. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Ni kweli ingawa wiki chache baada ya Lowassa kutamka hayo, JK nae alirudia maneno hayo hayo katika moja ya hotuba zake; Vinginevyo kimsingi nakubaliana na wewe kwamba sana sana suala hili viongozi wengi wanalitumia kisiasa zaidi huku wakijua fika kwamba aidha kwa kupenda au kutopenda, hawana ufumbuzi; Isitoshe, kama ulivyosema, watoto wao, ndugu zao, wote wana ajira za uhakika, ya nini kuanza kuhangaika na maskini; Ni nyerere, Sokoine, Mzee Kaduma na viongozi wachache sana ambao suala hili liliwagusa/linawagusa moyoni genuinely;
     
  4. mathcom

    mathcom JF-Expert Member

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    Mimi si mchambuzi mzuri ila nina maono machache juu ya hili
    1. kila kitu kinahitaji elimu: kwanza inatakiwa elimu jumla, halafu inafuata elimu/ujuzi juu kitu husika.Ili kufanikisha hili serikali haina budi hata kwa garama yeyote ile iwekeze kwenye elimu inayomjenga mtanzania kulihudumia taifa lake au hata kujiajiri mwenyewe kwa kujiamini na ufanisi zaidi. Hili halitawezekana bila kuyaweka mbele maslahi ya waalimu na vitendea kazi.
    2. Hapo zamani iliwekwa darasa la saba kwamba ndio kiwango cha elimu ya msingi. hii iliweza kufanya kazi kwa wakati huo, kwanza waliokuwa wakianza masomo walikua tayari ni wakubwa na mfumo wa elimu yenyewe ilikuwa inatosha kumfanya graduate huyu aweze kulitumikia taifa, au hata kujiajiri, wengi waliweza hata kuwa waalim. kwa sasa naona darasa la saba halitoshi kutoa msingi unaotakiwa kwa mtanzania, hivyo tusikomee hapo, inabidi tuwachukue watoto angalau wafikie kidatu cha nne kama elimu yao ya msingi.

    3. Inatakiwa iwepo sheria maalum ya kuwaadhibu wazazi ambao hawajawapeleka watoto wao shule pindi umri ukifika na pia kuwafuatilia pindi vijana wakiacha shule njiani.

    Tukishayaweza haya ya shule, basi kila ambalo litaelekezwa kwa umma itakuwa rahisi kulifuata. Naomba serikali ihangaikie suala la elimu ya watanzania kwa nguvu zote, hali ni mbaya!
    Ahsante
     
  5. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Asante sana kwa mchango wako mathcom,

    Kimsingi, nakubaliana na wewe kwamba suluhisho ni Elimu - lakini je, suala la uchumi kuzalisha ajira zinazoendana na demand ya ajira kwa vijana, wenye ujuzi unaoendana na soko, tunalitatuaje? Nchi wahisani pamoja na serikali wamekuwa wanapiga zaidi porojo juu ya hili kuliko vitendo, na mara nyingine kuashiria kwa uwazi kabisa kwamba hali iliyopo ni neema zaidi kwa wachache;
     
  6. mathcom

    mathcom JF-Expert Member

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    Nimeipenda hiyo ya 75% kuwa chini ya miaka 25. Hii inaonesha kwamba tanzania itakuwa taifa la vijana. nawaombeni vijana wetu bila kujali wazee wamefanya nini hapa nchini tupige vita rushwa na ufisadi, ili ikifika mwaka 2020 tanzania iwe ni rushwa free nation, ingawa huko pia ni mbali lakini wengi wa mafisadi itakuwa bado wanaishi hadi kufikia 2020!!!
     
  7. mathcom

    mathcom JF-Expert Member

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    Kama ulivyosema mwanzo, kwavile yao yanawaendea hawajali ya masikini. Haya yote yanawezekana kama viongozi wetu wataacha ufisadi na kuutumikia umma, na kila kinachoingia nchini iwe rasilimali halisi, rasilimali fedha vitumike kuijenga nchi. Tatizo lipo hapo, kama CCM inaliona hilo basi mda bado upo wa kujirekebisha, kama CHADEMA itachukua nchi wajue kwamba nao wanabeba mzigo, na wala wasije kwa gear ya kujikusanyia mijimali kama inavyoonekana katika utawala uliopo!
     
  8. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Hata kama Chadema wataingia na kuziba mianya ya ufisadi, nadhani bado suala la ajira kwa vijana ni suala gumu sana kulipatia ufumbuzi, hasa kutokana na imbalance iliyopo baina ya job creation na number of youths in the country wenye uwezo wa kufanya kazi, nia ya kufanya kazi, na pia malengo ya maisha yatakayotegemea nafasi zao za kazi; Ni ngumu zaidi kutokana na changamoto zilizopo katika muktadha wa utandawazi; By 2015 kutakuwa na vijana zaidi ya milioni 30 chini ya umri wa miaka 25? Ni vigumu kubaini jinsi gani CCM au Chadema itaweza kulikwepa bomu hili; Njia pekee pengine ni kuweka mazingira ya kujenga matumaini, vinginevyo hakuna solution ya maana in 15 years in my view, kwani tulishakosea sana kimfumo;
     
  9. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    As long as tumebinafsisha viwanda vyetu na kutochukua hatua za kuhakikisha kuwa wale waliokabidhiwa viwanda hivyo wanaendeleza shughuli za viwanda badala ya kuvibadilisha kuwa go-down tutaendelea kuwa na tatizo la ajira.

    Hebu niulize hivi serikali ina sera gani kuhusu viwanda na inachukua hatua gani kuhakikisha viwanda vilivyobinafsishwa vinafufuliwa? Kwa nini mpaka leo hatujajiuliza ilikuwaje Mwalimu Nyerere aanzishe viwanda karibu katika mikoa yote ya Tanzania, na licha ya kwamba vilikufa kutokana na uzembe wetu, sijamsikia mwanasiasa yeyote anayezungumzia sababu zilizopelekea kufa kwa viwanda hivyo na tunachopaswa kufanya.

    Hatuwezi kutegemea wawekezaji ndio wawe vyanzo vya ajira kwa vijana wetu. Serikali lazima iweke mkakati na msisitizo katika ufufuaji wa viwanda ama sivyo tutaendelea kulitizama hili bomu la ajira kwa vijana likituripukia.
     
  10. Eric Cartman

    Eric Cartman JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 24, 2012
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    Kitu ambacho kinafanya mijadala yako hiwe raisi kuijadili its the balance you try to create by giving even the critics an angle for their arguments through the data you present.

    God bless for the effort you take to present the statics you bring forward, i don't know how much people appreciate the efforts just for the sake of making your point across(but i know it takes some reading).

    But another thing why do you have to be ambiguous all the time, all those facts should have given you a clear approach on what is wrong with the current system instead of you just posing us with multiple choices options in your expected answers all the time.

    If you really believe in a certain philosophy surely all the trends in the current education results you posed, should have at least give us your perspective of things. And that is where the debate should have started.

    It would also allow us to learn of your philosophy instead of you quarrying of your audience all the time (give us a chance to side with you, or challenge you, or even offer you an alternative). But not all the time you posing questions, though the data effort is appreciated.
     
  11. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Asante kwa mchango wako Jasusi,

    Naelewa msingi wa hoja yako, lakini pia ni muhimu tuelewa kwamba viwanda kufa Tanzania ilichangiwa sana na sababu zetu za ndani kuliko za nje, kwa mfano poor investment decisions, highly regulated environment na serikali, kushuka kwa uzalishaji sekta ya kilimo ambayo ndio ilikuwa inaleta forex kusaidia kununua vipuri kutoka nje, n.k; Tulienda vizuri sana na viwanda vyetu katika kipindi cha 1967 - 1975, kwani kufikia 1975, capacity utilization katika viwanda vyetu ilifikia 75%, hiki ni kiwango cha juu sana, lakini ndani ya miaka mitano i.e. 1980-85, capacity utilization ikashuka na kukaribia 40%;

    Ilimwia vigumu sana Nyerere na Waziri wake wa Fedha (Mtei) na wasaidizi wake wengine kugeuza hali ile 1980-1985, kwani sekta ya viwanda iliendelea kukabiliwa na tatizo kubwa la inefficiency, kwani hata ukitazama takwimu za wakati ule, utaona bayana kwamba katika kipindi cha 1980-1985, tuliporomoka sana kwenye output, productivity, export performance, capacity utilization n.k; Mimi nadhani moja ya makosa makubwa tuliyofanya ni kwamba hatukuwa tunawekeza kwenye sekta ya kilimo, sana sana tulikuwa tunainyonya na kuikausha kabisa kwa nia ya kuendesha viwanda hivi, taasisi za umma, lipa mishahara ya wafanyakazi wa serikali n.k; Kwahiyo badala ya sekta ya kilimo kuinua sekta ya viwanda sustainably, sekta ya viwanda ikaua kilimo, na hivyo sekta ya viwanda nayo kufa;

    Kubinaifisisha ilikuwa ni suala ambalo halikuwa rahisi kulikwepa, tatizo was the MEANS, vinginevyo na END was justified kwani serikali haikuwa na uwezo wa kuviendesha viwanda vile tena; Swali linalofuatia ni je: Tulipanga kumzalishia nani na viwanda vile, soko la nyumbani au soko la nje? Na je, tulikuwa pia tunajipanga kuwa more efficient, productive & competitive in terms of quality of labor, technology, innovation, exploiting more market opportunities, hasa in the region of africa? Jibu ni hapana, tulikuwa tunajaribu kujitegemea kwa kuendelea kutegemea; Kwahiyo in one way or another, tusingekuwa na comparative advantage ya maana baada ya ujio wa liberalization ambao hatukuwa na uwezo wa kuukwepa, na serikali ilikuwa haina uwezo tena wa kuendesha viwanda vile, so lazima vingeenda mikononi mwa private sector;

    Na sababu kubwa kwanini viwanda vingi vimeishia kuwa ma go down ni zile zile - bidhaa zetu kushindana na bidhaa za nje ni ngumu sana in terms of quality kwasababu hatujawekeza katika technologies, innovation, market driven education programmes in math and science kwenye mashule yetu, pia ubovu wa miundo mbinu, uhaba wa umeme n.k vinapelekea cost of production kuwa juu sana hivyo bei ya domestic final goods zinaweza kuwa juu kuliko imported goods, lakini muhimu zaidi, wakubwa wa nje hawataki tuendeleza our own industrial base, unless it is for them kama wanavyofanya kwenye nchi nyingine wanapokimbilia cheap labour, na kwa Tanzania bado hawana that interest;

    Mazingira yote haya yanaiweka Chadema pagumu kufanya anything meaningful and in an exemplary way hata kama itaingia ikulu 2015, na ccm ndio kabisaaa; Ni muhimu tukaanza na kuwekeza kwenye elimu not just for providing our kids with elimu wapate ajira, bali pia waweze kuisukuma nchi yetu karne hii ambayo ushindani upo kwenye kuwekeza kwenye science and technology, innovation ikiwa ndio linchpin; hivyo ndivyo tutaweza kuwa na viwanda vyetu wenyewe au atleast kuwavutia wakubwa wa nje kuja wekeza nchini, hivyo kusaidia vijana kupata ajira kwa wingi hata katika kazi za kawaida au kutokana na economic linkages zitazotengenezwa na indusrilization;na kazi hii itachukua miaka mingi sana, sio miaka kumi;

    Lakini mbaya zaidi ni kwamba TANGIA UHURU, HAKUNA NCHI IN SUB SAHARAN AFRICA ILIYOWEZA KU-INDUSTRIALIZE NJE YA MAURITIUS; Sisi tunaweza????
     
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  12. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    Analysis yako ya tatizo is right on the money. Inaonekana sote tunajua what needs to be done lakini who will do it? Wawekezaji watawekeza kwenye viwanda vya interests zao wenyewe. Hatuna akina Bakhressa wa kutosha kujenga viwanda vingi vitakavyotoa ajira. Lakini bila industrialization we are doomed. Hiyo ndiyo changamoto ya yeyote atakayechukua madaraka 2015. Kwa sasa hivi I have given up on CCM. Wao wanaona kuwa wawekezaji ni wakombozi. But they are only here to make quick money and that is all.
     
  13. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Oct 24, 2012
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    I appreciate eric cartman,

    I could have easily presented the facts and figures and then attempt to score some points before the audience but i just felt that this discussion would be more valuable to both of us if we all get a chance to challenge each other, especially since the issue at hand can be attacked from multiple dimensions - economic, sociology, politics, finance, psychology, education, science and technology, conflict resolution, management...you name it...; It is true that i prepared a bit before presenting the topic (as i always do), but in all my presentations (even though i may slip here and there), i always try to reason in order to seek for truth, not win arguments because winning arguments doesn't necessarily imply an intellectual gain;

    Vinginevyo your point has been noted, asante sana kwa mchango wako;
     
  14. Janjaweed

    Janjaweed JF-Expert Member

    #14
    Oct 24, 2012
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    Mchambuzi, mie nina kaswali kadogo sana/au hoja

    Hiyo ya 80% ya watanzania kutegemea kilimo kama ajira inanitatizza sana, maana kwa kuangalia juu-juu tu, urban population kwa sasa, jobless even in rural areas, nk

    Data hizi ni za wapi?? isije ikawa kama zile za waislamu na wakristu
     
  15. Janjaweed

    Janjaweed JF-Expert Member

    #15
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    Yani kila ninapotaka kutomgusa mzee wangu EL, nachemsha

    Hivi, twaweza kuangalia au kuchambua impact ya ufisadi au greedy katika kudumaza opportunities za maendeleo?? na kama ndio? is there any research inaweza kuwa imefanyika kumuiplicate mtu au watu kwa kuchangia hilo??

    i tried to ask this question to my friend (yuko pale REPOA) in 2007, lakini tulishindwa kufikia conclusion yoyote kwani hapakua na any research ya "missed opportunities created by greed individual" and in our case tulijaribu kuangalia viongozi, tukasechi Tiger countries lakini wapi

    Hapa najaribu kupima mtu anayetoa angalizo kwa jambo ambalo yeye au wenzake (peer) wamechangia kuliasisi na kulikuza??

    No harm intended:A S soccer:
     
  16. Eric Cartman

    Eric Cartman JF-Expert Member

    #16
    Oct 24, 2012
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    Sasa unaweza vipi tetea hoja za Mwl JKN za ujamaa ambazo watu huzipinga kutokana na kwamba hazipo realistic kwenye kuweza kuja na sera mbadala za uzalishaji, sera ambazo unakiri zilitoka ndani ya serikali na ambazo zilikuwa na poor investement decisions (kunamengi ya kujadili hapo), something which you dont clarify kama kulikuwa na enough internal market au la sivyo na ndio sababu za kuja na hizo sera. Hapohapo unakiri ya kuwa sera ambazo ziliuwa viwanda bila ya shinikizo la nje (who is at fault here), mfano wewe kama mkurugenzi wa hilo shirika ungemshauri vipi dikteta ambae haelewi suala la uzalishaji kipindi hicho clearly that was the case maana viongozi lazima waongee na wazalishaji kabla ya kutunga sera, maana zinaweza kuuwa uchumi as it was in that case au?

    Mkuu mchambuzi r u serious sector ya viwanda inaweza kukuwa vipi bila ya raw materials, considering technology, service sector were not contributing much to our GDP, surely if we had any chances on suceeding on industrial production and a self sustained economic philosophy agriculture would have been our priority kwa maana hiyo economically ilikuwa ni upumbavu kuanza na viwanda bila kujua raw materials zinatoka wapi au?
    Isn't it obvious utampa nani kama unataka atleast an attempt of success considering the mistakes you have made halafu unataka msaada wenye masharti, worst off you havent a clue were it went wrong (or you just dont want to aknowledge because of pride and adorations of those who created the situation)
    If you failed the first time, what makes you think you would succeed the second time, under the same circumstance (kuna mengi hapo kwa sasa poor marketing, poor products na mengineo meengi)
    Mmmh wakati mwingine huwa napenda kuelewesha with facts
     
  17. Eric Cartman

    Eric Cartman JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Oct 24, 2012
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    thanks bro, nadhani mimi kama wewe huwa napenda kufahamishwa nimeweka maswali kadhaa kwenye post yako ya hawali, kikubwa nikutofautisha ujamaa na ubepari hili tuwe kwenye mstari mmoja kwenye tunayoyaunga mkono au tunayoyakataa.
     
  18. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #18
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    Nakubaliana na wewe kuhusu CCM, binafsi sioni any POLITICAL WILL upande wa CCM kufanikisha suala hili kwani chama chetu hiki viongozi wake wanafuta miradi itakayowapa legacy wakiwa bado hai ili waweze kuviona wakitimulia vumbi maskini ndani ya magari yao ya ving'ora; Kumuambia kiongozi wa CCM awekeze kwenye mradi for 2050, ni kama unamuombea death upon him;

    Ni muhimu tujivunie na amani na utulivu wetu kwa miaka hii 50 ya uhuru, lakini nabaki kujiuliza, je ni lazima kwa nchi kuwa na 'a trade off' between political gain and economic gain? Hivi viwili haviwezi kwenda pamoja? Faida yetu kisiasa (umoja, amani, utulivu) ina maana gani iwapo haiendi kwenye economic and social development? Tukipata viongozi wakali na wenye roho ya nyerere lakini ambao wamekubali kulivumilia soko huria na ubepari ili mradi linavumilia pia a welfare state, nadhani tutaweza kupiga hatua kubwa sana kimaendeleo kwa kutumia rasilimali zetu, vinginevyo kwa viongozi wetu hawa waliopo, they wont be able to handle pressure ya wawekezaji, especially kama nia yao hawa viongozi ni kustaafu wakiwa na mahekalu joberg, dubai, london...na kurithisha watoto wawe viongozi wetu wa kesho;

    Nini mtazamo wako kuhusu kufanya kila mkoa to keep 50% ya mapato yanayotokana na rasilimali zake, na kuchangia serikali kuu the other 50% ambayo serikali itajaribu kuipeleka kwenye mikoa iliyokuwa na uhaba wa rasilimali? Kwa mfano, arusha ibakize 50% ya mapato ya utalii, tanzanite, Tanga dhahabu, mkonge n.k, na mikoa mingine same way...na kuwe na masharti juu ya jinsi gani fedha hizo zitumike - education, health, infrastructure, processing industries au manufacturing centers (light, not heavy), na zote iwe based on comparative advantage ya maeneo husika na lengo iwe soko la ndani na pia SADC and EAC area; nadhani kama ikifanywa vizuri, regional imbalances zitapungua sana na pia itasaidia kupanua mikoa yetu kiuchumi, ajira..., kupunguza msongamano wa watu kwenye miji michache n.k;
     
  19. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

    #19
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    Nakubaliana na wazo la kila mkoa kujiwekea asilimia 50% ya mapato kwa raslimali zake na ile nyingine kwenda kwenye serikali kuu kutumika katika kuendeleza ile mikoa ambayo haina raslimali. Kwa mfano, Kahama kuna utajiri mwingi wa machimbo ya dhahabu, kama inaweza kutumia asilimia 50% kwa maendeleo yake, uchumi wa Kahama utapanuka na bila shaka Kahama itakuwa magnet kwa vijana wanaotafuta ajira badala ya kujazana Dar-es- Salaam na Arusha, wataelekea Kahama. Na pia kwa kumjibu eric cartman, tunazo raw materials nyingi tu. Tuna pamba. Tuna kahawa, tuna matunda ambayo naona Bakhressa ameanza kuyasindika ya kuyauza Malaysia. We need more of that. Watanzania si watu wa kuvaa mitumba wakati tuna pamba ya kutosha. Tunayo basis ya industrialization at a smaller scale.
     
  20. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Oct 24, 2012
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    Eric cartman,

    Mwalimu had his strong points and weak points; naamini kwamba nia ya Azimio la Arusha ilikuwa nzuri – the END was JUSTIFIED, tatizo ilikuwa ni the MEANS, hasa katika Utekelezaji wa sera nyingi za Ujamaa; Kwa mfano, zipo taarifa kwamba wakulima walikuwa wanarushiwa tu magunia ya mbolea kwenye milango yao majumbani huko vijijini na TRDB (later CRDB), ovyo ovyo tu bila proper stocking, training jinsi ya kutumia which led to a lot of wastage; mabwana shamba pia walikuwa ni watalii tu huko vijijini na pikipiki zao za serikali;
    Pia allegedly kulikuwa na section ya bureaucrats ambao constantly walikuwa wanashirikiana na imperialists to undermine Ujamaa kwa kuvuruga state owned companies ili zionekane zinaendeshwa kwa hasara, pia serikali ilipanuka ghafla kimatumizi to meet political objectives kuliko development objectives baada ya ndoa ya ASP na TANU 1977, ambayo ilipelekea Katiba mpya (1977), ambapo CCM ilishika hatamu na serikali kuanza to finance state activities ambazo nyingine zilikuwa ni za kisiasa zaidi na nyingine counterproductive; pia ikaja Vita ya Kagera ambayo iligharami nchi zaidi ya USD 500 Million; Yapo mengi ambayo yaliupa Ujamaa wakati mgumu hence the eventual collapse;
    Pengine sikueleweka; sekta ya viwanda haiwezi kukua bila ya kazi kubwa ya kilimo kuikuza sekta hiyo; kwa maana nyingine, agricultural transformation ndio hupelekea industrialization, and throughout the process, kilimo serves viwanda on issues kama supply of Raw Materials, supply of labour plus many other vertical and horizontal economic linkages; Nilicho maanisha ni kwamba sekta ya kilimo ilikuwa inazalisha sana lakini less and less was re-invested in agriculture, na hii ni kinyume na inavyotakiwa katika mchakato wa agricultural transformatiom; Hii ikapunguza sana Ari ya wakulima kuendelea kuzalisha mazao ya biashara ambayo ndio yalikuwa yanaleta fedha za kigeni kwa serikali kuendesha mambo yake; Serikali ilifanya kosa kutumia kilimo zaidi kama sekta ya kuchota fedha from exports ya agro products, na kuzitumia kuendesha a huge and inefficient public sector, kuwaweka sawa wasomi na wakazi wa mijini in terms of employment kwenye parastatals na pia kuwapatia social services nzuri ili wasi revolt against the party and government, huku wakulima wakiwa wanaumia kupitia unfavourable producer prices;
    Hapa ulikuwa unazungumzia privatization, hasa on how most former state owned enterprises ended up going bankrupt and eventually land in the hands of foreigners; Internal factors zilichangia sana kuliko external factors, lakini hili nimejadili kidogo hapo juu; Vinginevyo palikuwa hakuna jinsi bali privatize these SOEs, lakini nadhani kulikuwa na namna bora zaidi ya kufanya hivyo ambayo ingeleka a win-win situation; Again, just as Ujamaa , pia Liberalization, Privatization and Marketization were Justified, tatizo ni MEANS, hasa the implementation bit; Pengine ni kutokana na severity ya hali mbaya ya uchumi we failed to own the Reform Agenda;

    Lakini pia hapa nashangaa kwanini Sir George Kahama alipewa kazi ya kuwa MD wa kwanza wa NDC ambayo ndio ilikuwa na jukumu to industrialize the country, na baada ya failures za baadae, reforms zikaja na ikaanzishwa Investment Promotion Centre (IPC), ambayo sasa ni TIC, na huyu huyu Kahama akawa MD wa kwanza wa hii parastatal iliyokuwa inatekeleza sera za de-industrialization; was it a coincidence kwa mtu kupewa wadhifa kusimamia industrialization then later de-industrialization? kulikuwa na mantiki katika hili?
    Hapa ulikuwa unazungumzia the second industrialization in Tanzania; Nakubaliana na wewe katika hili, ndio maana all along, ingawa sio vizuri kuwa skeptical on such issues, I have been very skeptical kwani as you rightly put it, hali ya wakati ule haina tofauti na sasa, pengine it has gone worse in terms of effects za globalization whereby mfumo wetu mzima umekuwa dismantled kabisa na kuwa tegemezi; it would need a lot of work to re-industrialize Tanzania tena, lakini hatua ya kwanza muhimu ni political will;
    Lakini pia hapa nashindwa kuelewa – kuna viwanda ambavyo vilikuwa very successful and very profitable to the state – textiles, food processing, leather, oil, lakini as soon as protection barriers were taken out, they were the ones hit the hardest; what is your view on this – au kwa hili you would sustain your argument on the quote above?
    Pia kuna sehemu umenijibu hivi:
    Na hii ilitokana na mimi kutamka hivi:
    Naomba uwe specific kidogo kuhusu facts unazohitaji ili uelewe zaidi, sikuweza kukuelewa katika hilo;
     
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