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Bleak future as power crisis expected to worsen

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by BAK, Jul 10, 2011.

  1. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

    Jul 10, 2011
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    [h=2]Bleak future as power crisis expected to worsen[/h]

    By Florian Kaijage

    10th July 2011

    As the country continues to suffer unprecedented 12 - hour a day power rationing, it has emerged that the current situation could worsen due to the likelihood of rain failure over the next three months.
    The devastating situation is compounded by the fact that the power generation at Kidatu and Mtera dams has drastically dropped to less than 20 percent of the combined installed capacity.

    The weather forecast information from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) reveals that rains are not expected until the next rainy season in October.
    While Kidatu's four power generation units have an installed capacity of 204 megawatts, two units at Mtera have the capacity to generate 80 megawatts, making the combined capacity for both Mtera and Kidatu 284 megawatts.

    However, The Guardian on Sunday has been reliably informed that by the start of the end of June, Kidatu was able to generate about 40 megawatts as Mtera could only generate 11 megawatts, which is 19.6 percent and 13.7 percent of the capacity, respectively.

    Mtera dam, the biggest man-made lake in Tanzania, is a major water reservoir for power generation at its power generation units but more crucially for Kidatu, a biggest single producer of hydropower. The two dams, separated by a distance of 170 km, lie on the same water stream of the great Ruaha river, though there are other tributaries such as little Ruaha and other small rivers.

    TMA acting Director General Dr. Agnes Kijazi, told this paper that although sometimes rains occur during the June – September dry season, there was no expected rains which could rescue the situation, which posses a high risk to the national economy.

    " A downpour may be experienced for a day or two, but the data we have do not give any optimism for substantial amounts of water to serve the purpose," said Dr Kijazi.
    She added: "And even such rains could only materialise if there is abnormal moisture in the Indian Ocean or in lakes such as Victoria and therefore benefit some areas around the ocean and lakes."
    On June 22, 2011, Tanzania Electrical Supply Company (Tanesco) announced the longest ever power shedding of 12 hours during daylight and 6 hours at night, attributing the decision to the low water level needed for power generation at Mtera dam.

    According to formal statistics available at Tanesco, hydro has a lion's share in the national power network, termed as national grid system as it contributed 73 percent of electricity nationwide (561 megawatts), with the remaining 27 percent generated from gas and thermo (diesel powered generators).

    Kidatu and Mtera combined contribute more than 50 percent of all the electricity generated from hydro. Four other 4 stations Kihansi (180 megawatts) Pangani 68 (megawatts) Hale (21 megawatts) and Nyumba ya Mungu (8 megawatts) contribute 49.4 percent as they have a combined installed capacity of 277 megawatts.
    Additional tatistics available at Tanesco reveal that all means of power generation (hydro, gas and thermo) have a combined installed capacity of 1005 megawatst but the actual number of megawatts which can be produced is 857.

    And more shockingly, while the entire nation has a peak power demand of 833 megawatts, only 500 megawatts can be generated, resulting in a deficit of 333 megawatts.
    A more worrying scenario is that a formerly disputed power plant now owned by American firm, Symbion (formerly owned by Dowans), which was switched on recently to reduce the severity of power shortage, could not generate more than 30 megawatts despite its capacity to generate 112 megawatts, due to lack of adequate gas for the purpose. (Mhhhh!)

    Orca Exprolation, a Tolonto-based firm which operates the Tanzanian project via its wholly-owned subsidiary, PanAfrican Energy and in cooperation with power company Songas, a consortium including state-run Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp (TPDC) and Bermuda-based Globeleq, announced in April 2010 that it had plans to increase gas production by 60 percent by the end of 2012.

    The firm which claimed to be supplying the gas to 35 industrial customers and for power generation for the national grid by Songas and Tanesco, gave statistics that at Songongo there was a gas deposit of 3.3 trillion cubic feet.
    The Minister For Energy and Minerals, William Ngeleja, was quoted this week as saying that his office was to advise the Symbion to use Jet A1 fuel for power generation until gas is available since the plant could be powered by gas and fuel.
    However, the major concern for the government is that the use of fuel could result in high running costs, hence hiking the price per unit of electricity. (Mhhhh!)

    A vivid example is the Dar es Salaam-based diesel powered Independent Power Tanzania Ltd (IPTL) plant which the government has been facilitating to run it during the power crisis such as the existing one.
    The government has been paying to IPTL not less that 12 billion shilling monthly as capacity charge.

    It also paid 64 billion shillings for importation of Heavy fuel Oil (HFO) to run the plant between November 2010 and February 2011. The amount spent between March and June could not be established
    But more paradoxically, IPTL's generated power is sold to Tanesco at $32 cents but it trades the same power four times less at 08 cents per Kwh or unit. (Mhhhh! Do we expect TANESCO to flourish under these conditions!?)

  2. tanga kwetu

    tanga kwetu JF-Expert Member

    Jul 10, 2011
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    maumivu ya kichwa huanza pooolepoole!!!!