Banki ya Dunia: Mpango wa Serikali ya Tanzania Kukopa ni 'Bomu'

[Mdondoaji]

Navojua mimi ile Eurobond ni govt security ila badala ya kuwa in tsh wanatumia euro, sababu kubwa ni euro interest rate iko chini. Ila hii ya stanbic sina uhakika itakuwa underlined in which currency presumably Tsh sababu ni local banks, hiyo itapunguza demand ya forex toka serikalini. vilevile ujue kuissue gov't bond ni sawa na kukopa maana serikali inabidi izilipe hizo bonds zikisha mature kwa hiyo ni ile ile suala ni riba.
Safari za nje wote tunakubaliana kuwa zimezidi na ni budi kwa serikali kuzipunguza na kuelekeza nguvu na muda wao kwa maendeleo ya wananchi.
Vilevile nafahamu hiyo sikuwa natoa mchanganuo wa GDP per capita la hasha, nilikuwa naangalia jumla ya matumizi ya serikali dhidi ya idadi ya wananchi, ukumbuke humu ndimo huduma za jamii (shule, hospitali) zinakotoka pamoja na mishahara ya watumishi wa umma.

Cha msingi tujadili ni namna gani serikali yetu iweze kuongeza bajeti na matumizi ya miradi ya maendeleo maana ya sasa haitoshi. vilevile sikubaliana na hawa WB kwamba serikali isikope kwingine maana cha msingi hatuwezi kutegemea WB kwa miradi yote. Tukumbuke pia kuwa moja ya sababu za ule mpango wa wafadhili kupunguza misaada na mikopo kwa Tz ni ukwasi uliozikumba nchi nyingi za magharibi baada ya mtikisiko wa uchumi.

sijaelewa link ya Eurobond kwenye hii debate but anyway labda huo ni mtazamo wangu. Kuhusu Bonds yes these bonds zinakuwa na interests ambazo kama umesoma finance kuna kitu term structure interest rate theory. Utakuta kwamba bond yeyote coupon yake inategemea na muda wa ule mkopo. Kikubwa ni kwamba Government inapokuwa imeissue bonds kwanza bonds zake zinakuwa lower risk exposure compare to kampuni ya kawaida. Pili wanakuwa na uwezo wa kudictate terms za mkopo na muda watakaolipa. Tuko pamoja? Sasa mie ninapoishauri serikali kwenda kwenye soko la mitaji tumelianzisha kufanya nini? Kwanini wasiuze bonds wakaruhusu watu wanunue wenye uwezo? That way inapunguza level of financial distress ambalo serikali italipata kwa kukopa katika financial institutions?

Kuhusu WB mie siwaambii kwamba wakope WB peke yake bali nawaambia kama wanataka waende kukopa katika Development Bank Institutions sio World Bank tu, kuna EADB, ADB etc. Pia they may ask for loan from some governments. Mbona US wamekopa from China? Kule kuna kuwa favourable terms kuliko kwenda kukopa katika local financial institutions ambapo mzigo mwisho wa siku unatuangukia sie watanzania. Nitakupa mfano mambo yakienda vibaya katika ulipaji wa mkopo inabidi iongeze spidi na umakini wa ukusanyaji kodi. Ikiwa itashindwa unadhani wapi watakimbilia kupakamua si kwasie walipa kodi ili kufidia ile deficit??? Sasa mwisho wa siku tutaumia sie walipa kodi ambao hatukuhusishwa in first place.

Labda nikuulize kwanini tukawa tunalipa ada za shule? tunajilipia huduma ya afya, tunachangia kodi ya barabara etc. Hizi ni njia mojawapo za kupunguza ukubwa wa budget yetu na kusaidia kuleta maendeleo

 

[Mdondoaji]

Why BORROW in the first place?Why not undertake shelving unecessary expenses, ministries etc?Just because you 'have it' does mean you 'use it'!!

More and more debts....when does it stop??

This is what i am saying kwanini wasianze kupunguza gharama za serikali??? Au kwa vile kila mtu anataka kujenga hekali na kumiliki VX Dar!!!!

 

[SMU]

"Apart from the $250 million we are sure to get from the Stanbic Financial Group, we also expect more funds from other financiers who have shown interest in supporting us," he said.

As if this will be interest free!

 

[Chapakazi]

We were told that the Government plan to borrow $300 million, how come the amount is now $1.5 billion, five more times than the original amount!? :angry:...SMDH!!!!

Nadhani hiyo $300mil ni kutoka one financial institution (nadhani Stanbic) lakini totally wata-borrow $1.5Billion kutoka Private Sector. Private Sectors encompasses more banks and other financial institutions. Kitu wanachotuficha ni hizo terms. I think as the owners (stake holders) wa hii nchi tunahitaji kupewa his terms. Wabunge wetu wapo wapi?

 

[WaMzizima]

sijaelewa link ya Eurobond kwenye hii debate but anyway labda huo ni mtazamo wangu. Kuhusu Bonds yes these bonds zinakuwa na interests ambazo kama umesoma finance kuna kitu term structure interest rate theory. Utakuta kwamba bond yeyote coupon yake inategemea na muda wa ule mkopo. Kikubwa ni kwamba Government inapokuwa imeissue bonds kwanza bonds zake zinakuwa lower risk exposure compare to kampuni ya kawaida. Pili wanakuwa na uwezo wa kudictate terms za mkopo na muda watakaolipa. Tuko pamoja? Sasa mie ninapoishauri serikali kwenda kwenye soko la mitaji tumelianzisha kufanya nini? Kwanini wasiuze bonds wakaruhusu watu wanunue wenye uwezo? That way inapunguza level of financial distress ambalo serikali italipata kwa kukopa katika financial institutions?

Kuhusu WB mie siwaambii kwamba wakope WB peke yake bali nawaambia kama wanataka waende kukopa katika Development Bank Institutions sio World Bank tu, kuna EADB, ADB etc. Pia they may ask for loan from some governments. Mbona US wamekopa from China? Kule kuna kuwa favourable terms kuliko kwenda kukopa katika local financial institutions ambapo mzigo mwisho wa siku unatuangukia sie watanzania. Nitakupa mfano mambo yakienda vibaya katika ulipaji wa mkopo inabidi iongeze spidi na umakini wa ukusanyaji kodi. Ikiwa itashindwa unadhani wapi watakimbilia kupakamua si kwasie walipa kodi ili kufidia ile deficit??? Sasa mwisho wa siku tutaumia sie walipa kodi ambao hatukuhusishwa in first place.

Labda nikuulize kwanini tukawa tunalipa ada za shule? tunajilipia huduma ya afya, tunachangia kodi ya barabara etc. Hizi ni njia mojawapo za kupunguza ukubwa wa budget yetu na kusaidia kuleta maendeleo

Nakubaliana na hiyo kuhusu term structure interest rate na hiyo ndio kawaida serikali nyingi hutumia, ingawa hivi sasa Greece na Spain zinasumbuka maana muda wa kulipa hizo unakaribia na hawana hela!
Sasa tukirudi hapa kwetu ni muhimu kwa serikali ikatanua uwigo wa mikopo yake na vyanzo vya kipato, yaani iwe na portfolio kubwa na hii itawezesha kupata sovereign rating nzuri kwenye masoko.
Kuhusu ADB na EADB siku hizi hizo zote pamoja na serikali wahisana wako kwenye same umbrella inaitwa multilateral donors, na wale wa moja kwa moja kama ulivoshauri hapo juu bilateral. Hawa wote miaka ya karibuni wamekuwa waki cordinate mikopo na misaada yao ile kupunguza urasimu na overlaps. Hio ndio Mkullo anasema kuna upungufu nami nakubaliana nae, hayo ni maoni yangu...hatuwezi kutegemea hawa peke yao kwa sababu wana limit ya funds ambazo wako tayari kuipa Tz na vilevile ni muhimu kuharakisha miradi ya miundombinu bila kusubiri multilateral au bilateral donors.

Kuhusu US kukopa China ni kuwa hawa wachina wana trade surplus kubwa na US na badala ya kubadili hizo $ kwenye fedha nyingine wameamua kununua govt bonds za US, ujue kuwa pamoja na kuwa wanazo nyingi bado Japan ndio inaongoza kwa kuwa na US bonds nyingi. Vilevile ukumbuke ni rahisi kwa US kuuza bonds zake maana zina demand kubwa na wakati wowote serikali yao ikizidiwa wanweza kuprint extra cash!
Ni kweli mambo yakiizidia kutakuwa na matatizo lakini swala hapa ni kuamua je tusubiri mpaka tujaaliwe na mungu au tukakope na kuendeleza uchumi sasa, maana kama hela zikitumika vizuri basi na kodi itaongezeka na kuipa uwezo serikali kulipa hayo madeni regardless kama ni commercial or otherwise...
Kuhusu kujilipia ada za shule na hospitali ni wazi kuwa hizo program zimeshindwa Tz maana watu wengi hawazipati na ni muhimu kwa serikali kujenga shule na hospitali maana ikitegemea mpaka michango ya wananchi imeshindikana..Angalia tables za maendeleo uone Tz tuko wapi...bila intervention ya serikali kujenga hii miundombinu hatutafika ni lazima serikali ishiriki kikamilifu hatuwezi kutegemea wananchi kulipia huduma hizo...hiyo ni mitazamo ya kihifadhina(conservative) ambayo hapa kwetu imeshindikana. Kumbuka IMF ndio waliotulazimisha tukate mambo ya UPE na kuibana serikali kupunguza watumisha miaka ya Mwinyi matokeo yake tunaona sasa...kushuka kwa elimu, upungufu wa tija na utendaji serikalini etc..
Kwa hiyo mi bado nashikilia bango kuwa bajeti ni ndogo na inahitaji kuongozwa sana, hivo ni wajibu wa serikali iangalie namna zote za kuongeza mapato sio kupunguza.

 

[Mbogo]

Promising 'maisha bora kwa kila Mtanzania' without knowing how to bring about. Cha kusikitisha na kufedhehesha, ni kuwa huu mzigo si wa serikali, bali wananchi (NOT RAIA - Kumbuka kwa Tanzania mwananchi na raia ni two different things) kupitia kodi za kichwa! wafanyakazi wa serikali jiandaeni kuongezewa kodiiiiii!


Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where they is no river. ~Nikita Khrushchev

 

[bnhai]

Good point but do you think it is wise kwenda kukopa benki kwanini wasiissue securities katika capital market kuwaachia wenye pesa wanunue badala ya kwenda kukopa? Likewise, kama budget ya infrastructure ni ndogo kwanini wasipunguze maeneo ambayo hayana faida kwa taifa kama safari za nje za mkuu na kuhamishia ile budget kwenye sekta nyengine? Mwisho kabisa unasema Trilioni 11.5 ni kama shilingi 786 kwa siku kwa kila mtanzania but kumbuka hii ni budget ya serikali kwa watanzania na sio pato la mtanzania per capital income inakuwa measured by the amount of economic activity per number of population.

Kuissue security ndio huko kukopa kwenyewe.
Capital market ya Tanzania haina uwezo wa kugenerate amount yoote hiyo. Angalia turnover yake tokea imeanzishwa. Alternatively, ni kwenye capital markets za nje ambazo huwezi kuissue kwa Tshs.
Pia nchi yetu ni masikini saana, despites the fact Government haziwezi kudefault (theoretically), lakini ukweli Tanzania haina uwezo wa kudictate terms za interest yake kwenye reputable stock markets. Maana nchi ipo hoi na inategemea saana wahisani, rushwa nje nk. Ndio maana wanahaingaika iwe rated. Na hata ikiwa rated itakuwa B ya mwishoni huko au C kabisa ambayo inamaanisha higher risk then watachajiwa interest kubwa.
All in all mahitaji ya miundo mbinu ni makubwa saana na yana umuhim ktk mapinduzi ya kiuchumi. Cha msingi wakati tuanwaza kuraise capital/financing, tungeanza kubana matumizi ya serikali.

 

[Mdondoaji]

Nakubaliana na hiyo kuhusu term structure interest rate na hiyo ndio kawaida serikali nyingi hutumia, ingawa hivi sasa Greece na Spain zinasumbuka maana muda wa kulipa hizo unakaribia na hawana hela!
Sasa tukirudi hapa kwetu ni muhimu kwa serikali ikatanua uwigo wa mikopo yake na vyanzo vya kipato, yaani iwe na portfolio kubwa na hii itawezesha kupata sovereign rating nzuri kwenye masoko.
Kuhusu ADB na EADB siku hizi hizo zote pamoja na serikali wahisana wako kwenye same umbrella inaitwa multilateral donors, na wale wa moja kwa moja kama ulivoshauri hapo juu bilateral. Hawa wote miaka ya karibuni wamekuwa waki cordinate mikopo na misaada yao ile kupunguza urasimu na overlaps. Hio ndio Mkullo anasema kuna upungufu nami nakubaliana nae, hayo ni maoni yangu...hatuwezi kutegemea hawa peke yao kwa sababu wana limit ya funds ambazo wako tayari kuipa Tz na vilevile ni muhimu kuharakisha miradi ya miundombinu bila kusubiri multilateral au bilateral donors.

Kuhusu US kukopa China ni kuwa hawa wachina wana trade surplus kubwa na US na badala ya kubadili hizo $ kwenye fedha nyingine wameamua kununua govt bonds za US, ujue kuwa pamoja na kuwa wanazo nyingi bado Japan ndio inaongoza kwa kuwa na US bonds nyingi. Vilevile ukumbuke ni rahisi kwa US kuuza bonds zake maana zina demand kubwa na wakati wowote serikali yao ikizidiwa wanweza kuprint extra cash!
Ni kweli mambo yakiizidia kutakuwa na matatizo lakini swala hapa ni kuamua je tusubiri mpaka tujaaliwe na mungu au tukakope na kuendeleza uchumi sasa, maana kama hela zikitumika vizuri basi na kodi itaongezeka na kuipa uwezo serikali kulipa hayo madeni regardless kama ni commercial or otherwise...
Kuhusu kujilipia ada za shule na hospitali ni wazi kuwa hizo program zimeshindwa Tz maana watu wengi hawazipati na ni muhimu kwa serikali kujenga shule na hospitali maana ikitegemea mpaka michango ya wananchi imeshindikana..Angalia tables za maendeleo uone Tz tuko wapi...bila intervention ya serikali kujenga hii miundombinu hatutafika ni lazima serikali ishiriki kikamilifu hatuwezi kutegemea wananchi kulipia huduma hizo...hiyo ni mitazamo ya kihifadhina(conservative) ambayo hapa kwetu imeshindikana. Kumbuka IMF ndio waliotulazimisha tukate mambo ya UPE na kuibana serikali kupunguza watumisha miaka ya Mwinyi matokeo yake tunaona sasa...kushuka kwa elimu, upungufu wa tija na utendaji serikalini etc..
Kwa hiyo mi bado nashikilia bango kuwa bajeti ni ndogo na inahitaji kuongozwa sana, hivo ni wajibu wa serikali iangalie namna zote za kuongeza mapato sio kupunguza.

Tuseme uko sahihi unadhani kukopa kutasaidia kukwamuka kiuchumi? Tupate mipangilio unayoona mikopo ambayo tunatakiwa kulipa 25% ya loan inavyoweza kutusaidia kukwamuka kiuchumi. Pia kaa ukijua kufeli kwa Structural Adjustment System na ERP sio kumechangiwa na wafadhili bali ni sie wenyewe kwani tulikuwa tunataka kuimplement hizo policy wakati ilhali tunafata system ya ujamaa. Matokeo yake ikawa ni aibu kukaingia tabaka la watawala, usimamizi mbovu wa sekta za uzalishaji na pia kuanguka kwa uchumi. Tungelikuwa tumejiandaa na kukubaliana na zile programme unadhani tungelikuwa katika situation hii?

Pia kaa ukijua tatizo linalotufanya sie Tanzania tukae kila siku tukishindwa kutekeleza miradi ya wafadhili ni sie wenyewe. Kama tungelikuwa makini katika negotiation, ulafi wa pesa za umma, umakini katika utendaji tusingelifika tulipokuwa hapa. Kimtazamo sikubaliani na wewe eti IMF, WB programme zimeshindwa bali sie wenyewe tumeshindwa tukijua tutapata aid from the donors. Sasa nchi za magharibi ziko katika crisis sidhani kama zitaendelea kutubeba inabidi tusimame wenyewe. Kuhusu IMF na World Bank ile Bretton Woods Agreement iko katika hatihati kwasababu economic order is changing nchi kama China, India zinachangia kwa kiwango kikubwa katika IMF na WB. Sikubaliani na wewe kuwa IMF, WB hawana hela kwani basi wasingeliweza kuwabailout Greece. Hivyo usiseme IMF hawana hela wameweza vp kuwabailout Greece!!!!

Pia siamini serikali inashindwa kuuza thamani zake katika masoko ya mitaji ambako kuna terms kidogo nzuri. Mkopo uwe ni last resort ambapo measures zengine zimeshaangaliwa. Na pia kama unahisi budget inahitaji vitu vingi kwanini msipunguze vitu vya kuwekeza??? Mfano mradi wa Flyover kwanini usiondolewe ukabadilishwa na kubadilisha miji na kuifanya igawiwe kisekta ya uchumi mfano ofisi za serikali zikahamia Dodoma, masoko yakahamishwa ubungo, etc hilo litasaidia kumaliza tatizo la foleni DSM. Badala yake tunakimbilia kujenga flyovers which a.hatuna pesa, b. Hata tukijenga baada ya muda fulani tatizo litarudi palepale???

 

[Mdondoaji]

Kuissue security ndio huko kukopa kwenyewe.
Capital market ya Tanzania haina uwezo wa kugenerate amount yoote hiyo. Angalia turnover yake tokea imeanzishwa. Alternatively, ni kwenye capital markets za nje ambazo huwezi kuissue kwa Tshs.
Pia nchi yetu ni masikini saana, despites the fact Government haziwezi kudefault (theoretically), lakini ukweli Tanzania haina uwezo wa kudictate terms za interest yake kwenye reputable stock markets. Maana nchi ipo hoi na inategemea saana wahisani, rushwa nje nk. Ndio maana wanahaingaika iwe rated. Na hata ikiwa rated itakuwa B ya mwishoni huko au C kabisa ambayo inamaanisha higher risk then watachajiwa interest kubwa.
All in all mahitaji ya miundo mbinu ni makubwa saana na yana umuhim ktk mapinduzi ya kiuchumi. Cha msingi wakati tuanwaza kuraise capital/financing, tungeanza kubana matumizi ya serikali.

Good point bnhai na tuko pamoja kwani nyuma nilisema tubane matumizi kwanza na kuprioritise vitu vya kufanya. But mkopo kwa local banks uwe ni last resort. Sasa kuna mwenye hoja ya kusema budget ni ndogo hivyo iongezwe na tutafute nyanja zengine za pesa jambo sikubaliani nalo

 

[Zhule]

sijaelewa link ya Eurobond kwenye hii debate but anyway labda huo ni mtazamo wangu. Kuhusu Bonds yes these bonds zinakuwa na interests ambazo kama umesoma finance kuna kitu term structure interest rate theory. Utakuta kwamba bond yeyote coupon yake inategemea na muda wa ule mkopo. Kikubwa ni kwamba Government inapokuwa imeissue bonds kwanza bonds zake zinakuwa lower risk exposure compare to kampuni ya kawaida. Pili wanakuwa na uwezo wa kudictate terms za mkopo na muda watakaolipa. Tuko pamoja? Sasa mie ninapoishauri serikali kwenda kwenye soko la mitaji tumelianzisha kufanya nini? Kwanini wasiuze bonds wakaruhusu watu wanunue wenye uwezo? That way inapunguza level of financial distress ambalo serikali italipata kwa kukopa katika financial institutions?

Kuhusu WB mie siwaambii kwamba wakope WB peke yake bali nawaambia kama wanataka waende kukopa katika Development Bank Institutions sio World Bank tu, kuna EADB, ADB etc. Pia they may ask for loan from some governments. Mbona US wamekopa from China? Kule kuna kuwa favourable terms kuliko kwenda kukopa katika local financial institutions ambapo mzigo mwisho wa siku unatuangukia sie watanzania. Nitakupa mfano mambo yakienda vibaya katika ulipaji wa mkopo inabidi iongeze spidi na umakini wa ukusanyaji kodi. Ikiwa itashindwa unadhani wapi watakimbilia kupakamua si kwasie walipa kodi ili kufidia ile deficit??? Sasa mwisho wa siku tutaumia sie walipa kodi ambao hatukuhusishwa in first place.

Labda nikuulize kwanini tukawa tunalipa ada za shule? tunajilipia huduma ya afya, tunachangia kodi ya barabara etc. Hizi ni njia mojawapo za kupunguza ukubwa wa budget yetu na kusaidia kuleta maendeleo

USA hawajakopa China. China wamenunua Bond kama unavyoshauri serikali yetu ingeuza bond kama sikosei.

 

[BAK]

By MASATO MASATO, 3rd June 2010 @ 22:00,
DAILY NEWS

THE government has formed a team of financial experts to fast-track issuing of sovereign bonds in international markets to raise between 500 million and 1 billion US dollars (700bn/- and 1.4tr/-) to finance infrastructure development projects.

"The government has revived the plan to issue sovereign bonds and we have embarked on the process in full swing," Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Mustafa Mkulo told the 'Daily News' in Dar es Salaam yesterday.

Plans to sell the country's first sovereign bond in 2008 were put on hold after global financial crisis.

Mr Mkulo said the team under the central bank was now conducting analysis of the financial markets before issuing a report upon which, the government will decide on the best way to go ahead with the plan.

He said the country's sovereign rating by international firms was also underway, but the World Bank yesterday advised Tanzania against pursuing the sovereign bond option, which it described as costly for the country.

The bank, instead urged the government to pursue the traditional option of taking concessional loans and grants from development partners.

"Tanzania can go ahead and issue the sovereign bond if it so wishes, but the option is costly because the bond has to be issued at market rates," World Bank Country Director for Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi said in Dar es Salaam.

Minister Mkulo, however, said much as the government was eager to get loans at soft terms, the traditional system has limitations.

"We would like to go for the relatively cheap credits from the World Bank, AfDB or any other development partner but there are limitations... we have projects that they cannot support.

"We haven't made a decision yet but even if we decide to issue the bond, it will not stop us from taking loans from the World Bank and other financiers ... they remain our close development partners. But infrastructure still has to be financed to steer the country's economic development," he explained.

The minister said the government still needed funds to finance transport and power generation to help improve the country's capacity to export, charging that the monies being sought would be exclusively invested in long-term development projects -- like construction of bridges, railway and roads.

Kenya and Uganda also shelved plans to sell sovereign bonds in 2008 due to unfavourable global economic conditions.

The government is already under intense criticism for its plan to plug the 2010/2011 budget by borrowing over 1tr/- from the local sources. Economists say the move will have adverse effects on the economy.

They instead want the government to exercise frugality.

 

[WaMzizima]

Good point bnhai na tuko pamoja kwani nyuma nilisema tubane matumizi kwanza na kuprioritise vitu vya kufanya. But mkopo kwa local banks uwe ni last resort. Sasa kuna mwenye hoja ya kusema budget ni ndogo hivyo iongezwe na tutafute nyanja zengine za pesa jambo sikubaliani nalo

Basi hapa ndio tukubaliane kutokukubaliana, maana kuna vitu nakubaliana nawe mfano wote tunakubali kwamba ni muhimu kwa serikali kubana matumizi yasiyo lazima eg semina na magari ya kifahari; hata serikali imekiri hilo. Na nakubaliana nawe kuwa ni lazima tuwe na serikali inayowajibika na kuwa wazi katika utendaji wake.
Nisipokubaliana nawe ni kwenye mikopo kama alivyoeleza mkuu Bnhai ;
Tz stock exhange uwezo mdogo kununua idadi kubwa ya hizo bonds
Limitation ya WB na IMF sio uwezo wa kifedha la hasha; Ila ni masharti yake na unabanwa kwenye miradi ambayo wako tayari kukusaidia na bilateral donors ni vivo hivo.
Mitazamo ya kihifadhina ni dhana hiyo ya kuwa na serikali ndogo nami sikubaliani na hiyo dhana, dhana yangu ni kwa serikali kuwa na bajeti kubwa ikazanie kuwekeza katika miundombinu ila kuupa uhuru uchumi uweze kukua na sio kuubana. Ni jukumu la serikali kuwa na matumizi makubwa kama uwezo wa sekta binafsi ni mdogo. Hiyo ni imani yangu.
Local banks sio last resort ni easy resort; maana wanakopa kwa Tsh na watalipa kwa Tsh na serikali ina uwezo wa kurudisha hizo hela maana ni zake.
Wote tukubaliane priorities ziwe wapi na tusukume mbele gurudumu letu la maendeleo.
Nawakilisha!

 

[MkamaP]

Hii nchi itakuja filisika vibaya,

 

[Mdondoaji]

USA hawajakopa China. China wamenunua Bond kama unavyoshauri serikali yetu ingeuza bond kama sikosei.

Kaka Bond ndio mkopo ila tofauti ya bond na loan ni kwamba bond ni promisory note to pay na loan contractual agreement inayoambatana na security fulani unaweka kuguarantee mkopo wako kama ukishindwa kulipa

 

[Regia Mtema]

Kazi kweli kweli as usual!

 

[Mdondoaji]

Basi hapa ndio tukubaliane kutokukubaliana, maana kuna vitu nakubaliana nawe mfano wote tunakubali kwamba ni muhimu kwa serikali kubana matumizi yasiyo lazima eg semina na magari ya kifahari; hata serikali imekiri hilo. Na nakubaliana nawe kuwa ni lazima tuwe na serikali inayowajibika na kuwa wazi katika utendaji wake.
Nisipokubaliana nawe ni kwenye mikopo kama alivyoeleza mkuu Bnhai ;
Tz stock exhange uwezo mdogo kununua idadi kubwa ya hizo bonds
Limitation ya WB na IMF sio uwezo wa kifedha la hasha; Ila ni masharti yake na unabanwa kwenye miradi ambayo wako tayari kukusaidia na bilateral donors ni vivo hivo.
Mitazamo ya kihifadhina ni dhana hiyo ya kuwa na serikali ndogo nami sikubaliani na hiyo dhana, dhana yangu ni kwa serikali kuwa na bajeti kubwa ikazanie kuwekeza katika miundombinu ila kuupa uhuru uchumi uweze kukua na sio kuubana. Ni jukumu la serikali kuwa na matumizi makubwa kama uwezo wa sekta binafsi ni mdogo. Hiyo ni imani yangu.
Local banks sio last resort ni easy resort; maana wanakopa kwa Tsh na watalipa kwa Tsh na serikali ina uwezo wa kurudisha hizo hela maana ni zake.
Wote tukubaliane priorities ziwe wapi na tusukume mbele gurudumu letu la maendeleo.
Nawakilisha!

Sawa tupo pamoja katika but I still believe ya kwamba terms unazopewa na local banks ukicompare na WB ni tofauti. In my opinion favorable terms zipo zaidi katika development institutions compare to local banks. Kusema kwamba kwakuwa pesa ni zako sidhani kama ni hoja nzito kwani hata marekani $ ni pesa yake na still anahangaika na mkopo la msingi ni kwamba serikali haina mtazamo unaotoa matumaini ya kwamba huo mkopo unaweza kuwa furnished vizuri.

Kuhusu market capitalization ya Tanzania na nchi zengine I beg to differ kwanza something is better than nothing at all. Hata kama market capitalization ni ndogo kuuza thamani zake katika soko la tanzania kutasaidia kuraise a certain cashflow ambayo itapunguza ukwasi wa fedha. Pia sio lazima tungangane Tanzania tunaweza tukaamua kwenda nje which bnhai anasema ni expensive but sidhani kama zitazidi cost za kushindana na overdraft facility Stanbic, au Exim, au CRDB wanawapa tena in USD ndio kabisa. Sidhani kama wanakopa kwa shillingi kama nitakuwa nimekosea nisahihishwe bali wanakopa kwa USD. Sasa nadhani wakakope masoko ya nje ndio maana sasa hivi wanahangaika kuwa rated.

Pamoja na kwamba ni rahisi kupata hii pesa from the local banks but consequences za huo mkopo ni mie na wewe ndio tutakuja kukoma na kujutia kwanini tumefanya maamuzi hayo

Nilikuwapo!!!!

 

[MkamaP]

Sawa tupo pamoja katika but I still believe ya kwamba terms unazopewa na local banks ukicompare na WB ni tofauti. In my opinion favorable terms zipo zaidi katika development institutions compare to local banks. Kusema kwamba kwakuwa pesa ni zako sidhani kama ni hoja nzito kwani hata marekani $ ni pesa yake na still anahangaika na mkopo la msingi ni kwamba serikali haina mtazamo unaotoa matumaini ya kwamba huo mkopo unaweza kuwa furnished vizuri.

Kuhusu market capitalization ya Tanzania na nchi zengine I beg to differ kwanza something is better than nothing at all. Hata kama market capitalization ni ndogo kuuza thamani zake katika soko la tanzania kutasaidia kuraise a certain cashflow ambayo itapunguza ukwasi wa fedha. Pia sio lazima tungangane Tanzania tunaweza tukaamua kwenda nje which bnhai anasema ni expensive but sidhani kama zitazidi cost za kushindana na overdraft facility Stanbic, au Exim, au CRDB wanawapa tena in USD ndio kabisa. Sidhani kama wanakopa kwa shillingi kama nitakuwa nimekosea nisahihishwe bali wanakopa kwa USD. Sasa nadhani wakakope masoko ya nje ndio maana sasa hivi wanahangaika kuwa rated.

Pamoja na kwamba ni rahisi kupata hii pesa from the local banks but consequences za huo mkopo ni mie na wewe ndio tutakuja kukoma na kujutia kwanini tumefanya maamuzi hayo

Nilikuwapo!!!!

Tofauti yake ni kuwa local bank unakua huru lakini WB unakua mtumwa

 

[bnhai]

Sawa tupo pamoja katika but I still believe ya kwamba terms unazopewa na local banks ukicompare na WB ni tofauti. In my opinion favorable terms zipo zaidi katika development institutions compare to local banks. Kusema kwamba kwakuwa pesa ni zako sidhani kama ni hoja nzito kwani hata marekani $ ni pesa yake na still anahangaika na mkopo la msingi ni kwamba serikali haina mtazamo unaotoa matumaini ya kwamba huo mkopo unaweza kuwa furnished vizuri.

Kuhusu market capitalization ya Tanzania na nchi zengine I beg to differ kwanza something is better than nothing at all. Hata kama market capitalization ni ndogo kuuza thamani zake katika soko la tanzania kutasaidia kuraise a certain cashflow ambayo itapunguza ukwasi wa fedha. Pia sio lazima tungangane Tanzania tunaweza tukaamua kwenda nje which bnhai anasema ni expensive but sidhani kama zitazidi cost za kushindana na overdraft facility Stanbic, au Exim, au CRDB wanawapa tena in USD ndio kabisa. Sidhani kama wanakopa kwa shillingi kama nitakuwa nimekosea nisahihishwe bali wanakopa kwa USD. Sasa nadhani wakakope masoko ya nje ndio maana sasa hivi wanahangaika kuwa rated.

Pamoja na kwamba ni rahisi kupata hii pesa from the local banks but consequences za huo mkopo ni mie na wewe ndio tutakuja kukoma na kujutia kwanini tumefanya maamuzi hayo

Nilikuwapo!!!!

Kukopa ndani hata kama terms ni favourable, napo pia kuna tatizo. Ukifikiria mbele zaidi utaona kukopa ndani ndiyo tunaelekea kucreate unemployment. Kwanini? Financial Institutions nyingi za Tz zimekuwa zikipenda kuikopesha serikali kwa sababu inaoffer interest kubwa na uwezekano wa kudefault ni negligible. Sasa tukiwaza kukopa ndani inamaana private sectors zitakuwa hazina pakwenda na matokeo yake uwepo wao utakuwa matatizo na ajira za watu zitapotea. Kwahiyo kwa hali ya uchumi kukopa ndani ya nchi bado ni tatizo. Tukiachana na kejeli na mengineyo, kiukweli hii ni changamoto kubwa with alot of implications. Umakini wa hali ya juu unahitajika. Mf tukisema tuendelee kujenga barabara kwa vihela vyetu vya bajeti ni sawa na kutwanga maji kwenye kinu kutokana na ukubwa wa tatizo lenyewe na pia ni kwamba pale wanapomaliza kutengeneza barabara moja nyingine imeharibika kwahiyo hakuna kusonga mbele.
Kwa mtazamo wangu wazo la kukopa ni la muhim saana, lakini si wakati wa sasa ambapo hali ya kiuchumi haijatengemaa na serikali bado haijaweza kuonyesha uwezo wa kubana matumizi. Tubane matumizi kwanza na pesa zitumike kama zilivyokusudiwa na tutengeneze uchumi imara unaoeleweka na tusimamie sheria ipasavyo (Maana tukikopa wachache wataiba) ndiyo tulekee kwenye kuissue bond.
Hoja ya kukopa nje ni tete na ni gharama naomba niliseme hili tena ingawa haiepukiki km nilivyoeleza hapo. Iangalie Greece, they are far better than Tanzania lakini walivyotaka kuissue bonds check interest rates walizopewa. Na kwa forreign currency ukiingalia tabia ya fedha yetu we are gone. Tuandae mazingira na si sasa. Uchumi wetu haueleweki.

 

[Mdondoaji]

national debt cartoon illustration blowup

Nadhani watukuu zetu watakuwa wakisema hivi....

 

[BAK]

Hii nchi itakuja filisika vibaya,

Ifilisike mara ngapi tena!? Rasilimali zetu tunazigawa bure kwa "Wachukuaji" ambao tumeamua kuwaita "Wawekezaji" kumbe hakuna chochote wanachowekeza bali ni WIZI MTUPU! Tulipunguziwa madeni kwa kiasi kubwa sana wakati wa awamu ya Mkapa sasa hii awamu ya Kikwete madeni hayo yamerudi tena kwa kiasi kikubwa. Wanaona kabisa nchi haina mapato ya kuweza kujiendesha badala ya kutafuta namna ya kubana matumizi ili kupunguza budget tegemezi sasa wameamua kuanza kukopa mikopo yenye riba kubwa sana ambayo nchi haiwezi kuimudu. Tuna vichwa vya wendawazimu ambao hawaangalii mbali na kama wasiposikia onyo la WB katika mkopo huu mkubwa wanaotaka kuchukua basi itafika wakati hata kukopa itakuwa haiwezekani tena maana nchi itakuwa imezidiwa na madeni makubwa mno.