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'Akina Mzee Mwanakijiji' ni wavivu kufikiri

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Tuko, Oct 31, 2012.

  1. Tuko

    Tuko JF Bronze Member

    #1
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Namtaja Mzee Mwanakijiji kwa kuwa yeye ni legend wa 'uchambuzi wa mambo ya kisiasa' katika vyombo vya habari. Wapo baadhi ya watu hapa Jf na kwenye magazeti ambao walitumia matokeo ya uchaguzi mdogo wa madiwani juzi kuchambua uwezekano wa CDM kufanya vizuri au vibaya kwenye uchaguzi wa 2015. Ni jambo zuri, na wala siwapingi kwa kuwa ni mojawapoya namna ya uchambuzi wa kisiasa...

    Sasa kama mtu anataka kujenga hoja na anataka hoja yake ieleweke, kuhusisha matokeo ya uchaguzi mdogo wa udiwani na matokeo tarajiwa ya uchaguzi mkuu ujao, naomba afanye home work yake kama 'mchambuzi wa kisiasa' kweli na aje na data zilizokamilika. Maana mi Tuko nikiandika uchambuzi hapa, hakuna mtu atakayehangaika sana na kuangalia nimechambuaje, maana nani anamfahamu Tuko? (hapa Tuko anawakilisha undergrounds wengine wote wa uchambuzi wa siasa). Lakini nikiona uchambuzi umeandikwa na Mwanakijiji, au Slaa, au Zitto, au Mnyika, na wengine (Nape hayupo kwenye hili kundi tafadhali, ndio maana hata post yake iliyowekwa hapa juzi sikuisoma) ambao ni members wa JF, masupastaa wa kisiasa wanaojitokeza kwenye hoja za siasa hapa, haraka sana ntakimbilia kusoma post yake na kuirudia mara mbilimbili kutafuta 'point' iko wapi...

    Sasa naamini Mwanakijiji na wenzake wana uwezo wa kufanya uchambuzi wa kisayansi zaidi, kuipima CDM sasa na uwezo wake sasa na kuuhusisha na 2015 kwa kutumia matokeo ya chaguzi ndogo za udiwani. Katika uchambuzi, nitaomba waje na data na majibu ya mambo yafuatayo...
    1. Mwaka 2005 CDM ilipata asilimia ngapi ya viti vya udiwani (tuiite R), na asilimia ngapi ya kura za udiwani (tuiite S)?
    2. Kati ya mwaka 2005-2010, kama kulikuwa na chaguzi ndogo za udiwani, CDM ilipata asilimia ngapi ya viti hivyo (T), na asilimia ngapi ya kura zote (U)?
    3. Mwaka 2010, katika uchaguzi mkuu, CDM ilipata asilimia ngapi ya viti vya udiwani (V), na asilimia ngapi ya kura za udiwani? (W)
    4. Mwaka 2010, katika uchaguzi mkuu, CDM ilipata asilimia ngapi ya viti vya ubunge (X), na asilimia ngapi ya kura za ubunge (Y)?
    5. Mwaka 2010, katika uchaguzi mkuu, CDM ilipata asilimia ngapi ya kura za uraisi (Z)?
    6. Je, R, S, T, na U, zilikuwa na correlations zozote na V, W, X, Y na Z? Kama zilikuwa na correlations, watuambie zilikuwa za aina gani, na watupatie 'factors' za hizo correlation. Kwa kutumia factors za correlations ambazo wamepata, nawaomba ma-legends hawa wakokotoe matokeo ya uchaguzi wa mwaka 2015.

    Hata hivyo, naomba wazingatie confounding factors kama vile, impacts za daftari la wapiga kura mwaka 2004 kutengenezwa, na mwaka 2009/2010 kuboreshwa, impacts za demographical changes, impacts za kushuka ama kupanda kwa vyama vingine vya kisiasa, n.k...

    Naamini hii ni kazi ndogo sana kwa watu ambao wapo kwenye tasnia ya habari na uchambuzi, lakini ina umuhimu sana ku-predict matokeo na mustakabali wa taifa letu baada ya uchaguzi wa 2015.
    Naamini, ikifanyika kazi hii, matokeo ya uchaguzi ujao hayatatanguliwa na vichwa vya habari kwenye magazeti; ..."Katika hali ambayo haikutarajiwa, matokeo ya uchaguzi yanaonyesha kwamba"...

    Kazi kwenu
     
  2. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Oct 31, 2012
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    I love your guts...lol

    Ungewataja na Slaa na Zitto kwa majina yao
    uone 'reactions za mashabiki' wao...lol
     
  3. muonamambo

    muonamambo JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Tuko !!!! Wewe ni great thinker!!!
     
  4. Spike Lee

    Spike Lee JF-Expert Member

    #4
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Mkuu jaribu kuwa mvumilivu kusoma michango isiyokufurahisha.
     
  5. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #5
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Sasa nani ni mvivu wa kufikiri? kama wewe unazo majibu ya hayo maswali yaweke hapa siyo utake wengine wakufanyie kazi halafu wewe uje kuchambua! Ili kuonesha kuwa hoja zako ni dhaifu fanya hii kazi wewe mwenyewe, tuwekee matokeo ya uchunguzi wako halafu watu wachambue kuona kama yana ukweli au yanakubaliana na ukweli au mantiki. Vinginevyo, uvivu wetu sisi wengine kufikiri una uwezo zaidi kuliko ujasiri wa kutupuuzia.

    Ili kukusaidia, majibu ya maswali yote hayo unaweza kuyapata kwenye Tovuti ya Tume ya Uchaguzi ya Taifa.
     
  6. only83

    only83 JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Ngoja niwasubiri hawa ma-legend wa matukio ya kisiasa.
     
  7. The Don

    The Don JF-Expert Member

    #7
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Aisee! Hongera nawe kuwa kwenye msafara wa...
     
  8. a

    assuredly4 JF-Expert Member

    #8
    Oct 31, 2012
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    jibu hoja acha kutoa povu, no research no right to speak
     
  9. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #9
    Oct 31, 2012
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    umekariri; sasa wewe unazungumza umefanya research? au yeye hapo alivyoandika kafanya research gani au yeye anataka wengine wafanye research na wewe huoni tatizo kwenye hicho kichwa chako?
     
  10. K

    Kwame Nkrumah JF-Expert Member

    #10
    Oct 31, 2012
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    ha ha haa..lazime umepitia FOE.
     
  11. R

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

    #11
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Core issue hapo ni ukame wa data.
     
  12. S

    STIDE JF-Expert Member

    #12
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Jibu hoja hatutaki blablaa!!

    Amesema watu wa aina yako ndo mmekuwa kimbelembele kuja na data za kinafiki JF, sasa anaomba data zenu(wachambuzi) zilenge kwenye muongozo aliotoa! NAKUSUBILI MKUU!!!
     
  13. Azipa

    Azipa JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Mkuu, Tuko! Hicho kichwa cha mada must have gotten everyone reading this thread but more importantly is the message you're trying to get across I couldn't agree with you more

    There are people who are very selective here. To them it's condescending to comment on say...Tuko's post
     
  14. Jackbauer

    Jackbauer JF-Expert Member

    #14
    Oct 31, 2012
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    yawezekana uwezo wa mwanakijiji kufikiri ulipitiliza kiwango.ha ha ha.
    Ukweli ni kuwa alikurupuka kutoa mahitimisho kabla ya kufanya uchambuzi wa kina.alikurupuka kuwashambulia viongozi wa chadema na kuona effort walizofanya kupitia operesheni mbalimbali hazikuwa na maana.
    Maswali ya mleta maada ni ya kisomi na kisayansi zaidi,ni maswali magumu kwa wachambuzi wetu wa kisiasa ambao wamezoea uchambuzi wa kishabiki.

    Sielewi kwa nini chadema ishutumiwe huku ikiwa imeongeza idadi ya kata.sielewi kwa nini watu hawajaisifia chadema kwa kuongeza awareness na participation ya wananchi hata wale ambao ni makada wa ccm'wale wa wali nyama' katika mambo ya siasa.

    Katika kata zilizorudi ccm;je ni operesheni ngapi za M4C zilifanyika na kama zilifanyikia katika kata hizo lengo lilikuwa ni jamii ya kata husika au wilaya/mkoa?tunaipimaje chadema na M4C kikata na si kijimbo?kata x ya watu wachache hawezi kuonyesha muelekeo wa kisiasa katika jimbo lenye kata 10x.

    Kama wabunge wa 5 walizaa wabunge zaidi ya 40 tena bila uwepo wa M4C iweje leo tunabeza ushindi wa kata 5?
     
  15. Ben Saanane

    Ben Saanane Verified User

    #15
    Oct 31, 2012
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    -Hizi fikra tegemezi ndizo zinazotufanya tujenge taifa la ajabu.Ndiyo maana akisimama waziri akamwaga takwimu tu tunaishia kumtangaza " Caesar for presidency" au unasikia "Wow,......such a brilliant leader"

    Duh ila leo nimecheka kweli.JF Rocks!
     
  16. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #16
    Oct 31, 2012
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    tatizo watu wanafikiria takwimu tu zinasema kila kitu; kuna msemo kuwa takwimu ni kama sketi zinadokeza tu kilichopo lakini zinaficha kilicho muhimu zaidi.

    Wengine wamewahi kusema "torture numbers and they will confess to anything"...

    Au kama William Watt alivyowahi kusema "[FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say" na mwingine akasema akitolea mfano kuwa "[/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]I abhor averages. I like the individual case. A man may have six meals one day and none the next, making an average of three meals per day, but that is not a good way to live. "
    [/FONT]
     
  17. K

    KIBE JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Acha porojo za kwenye magazeti ya tz ...weka hizo takwimu sasa unataka akuweke nani wewe???
    Ukweli uko wazi cdm inazidi kupolomoka siku hadi siku na ni tofauti na kinavyosemwa humu na wanavyotamba viongozi wake ...
     
  18. Jackbauer

    Jackbauer JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Oct 31, 2012
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    sina uhakika na anayetumia user name ya Mzee Mwanakijiji kwa kipindi cha kama wiki tatu hivi!
     
  19. a

    assuredly4 JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Oct 31, 2012
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    ww unaonekana ni miongoni mwa watu wanaoleta hapa hoja dhaifu na kusahau kuwa hili ni jukwaa la gt, sasa mwenzio kakupatia dondoo unazopaswa kuzijibu kwa ushahidi makini, bila hivyo usiendelee kupost hoja dhaifu kuhusu CDM kutochukua dola 2015. hivi nikuulize unajua matokeo halisi ya uchaguzi wa 2010. hekima ni kuwa kama hujui omba kuelimishwa utafaidika kuliko kujifanya unajua kila kitu
     
  20. Makete Kwetu

    Makete Kwetu JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Oct 31, 2012
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    Sio kweli.. nakataa kabisa....hizo data zipo tele pale NEC...mleta uzi asikazane kiuta wenzake wavivu wakati naye kamwaga mwaswali tu ambayo anawaze yafanyia analysis na kulete majibu yake hapa....simple Tuko naye mvivu period
     
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